NFL Week 5 Lines & Predictions

Week 5 of the NFL season has arrived, and I have you covered with betting analysis, picks, and predictions for the full slate of games every week. With another great set of games on the horizon, let’s break down the games. You can use the table below to compare and contrast odds and find the best pricing for the bets you want to place.

My Week 4 record: 10-5 SU, 11-4 ATS, 6-9 O/U
My record overall: 37-26 SU, 34-29 ATS, 33-30 O/U

Thursday, October 7th

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks

As with every week of the NFL season, Week 4 brought many surprises. Perhaps nothing was more unexpected than the Cardinals blowing out the Rams on the road as Arizona blew open a 24-point lead at one point and ultimately won by 21. Matthew Stafford still had a good game, but it was his worst passer rating of the season, and he threw his second interception of the year. Through three weeks, Cooper Kupp had led the NFL in virtually every receiving metric. However, the Cardinals held him to just five catches for 64 yards. The Los Angeles defense also struggled to contain Kyler Murray and his talented, deep receiving corps. Seattle’s Russell Wilson will provide another stern test for this defense this week.

Seattle earned a much-needed win over the 49ers in Week 4 to move to 2-2 on the season as they opened up a significant lead, and Russell Wilson took on more of a game manager role to keep the chains moving and maintain their lead. D.K. Metcalf had his breakthrough game with four catches for 65 yards and a touchdown while Tyler Lockett took more of a backseat. Those receivers will be crucial to the offense in Week 5 as the Rams’ elite pass rush always gives Wilson a tough time. If the Seahawks can get receivers open downfield sooner, it will help Wilson protect the football.

The Rams have won three of their last four and six of their previous eight games against the Seahawks, and I’m banking on that trend continuing here. The Rams will be hungry for a bounce-back win after an embarrassing home defeat to the Cardinals. While the Seahawks do thrive at home, the Rams have the more talented roster and should get back in the win column.

Matchup To Watch: D.K. Metcalf (SEA WR) vs. Jalen Ramsey (LAR CB)
My Pick: Rams win 27-23, Rams cover, under 52.5 points

Sunday, October 10th

New York Jets @ Atlanta Falcons

Matt Ryan looked like himself again on Sunday as he threw for 283 yards and four touchdowns and continued to take advantage of what has turned into an underwhelming Washington defense. Cordarelle Patterson caught three touchdown passes while Calvin Ridley had seven catches for 80 yards. Atlanta ran for just 3.5 YPC as a team, and their lack of production on the ground will continue to be an issue moving forward. However, the Falcons have plenty of pass-catchers who can expose a weak Jets’ secondary. The Falcons did a good job of keeping the pocket clean for Ryan last week, and that will go a long way against a decent defensive line in New York.

Zach Wilson led the Jets to an upset win over the Jets in Week 4 as the rookie passer had his best game of the season so far. Corey Davis was the principal benefactor of Wilson’s improved play as he had four catches for 111 yards and a touchdown. The Titans were missing Davis on the other side as their pass-catching corps was depleted without A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. New York’s pass defense stepped up, particularly in the pass-rush as they got to Ryan Tannehill seven times. Derrick Henry still ran for 157 yards on 33 carries, though, and Atlanta should run the ball on the Jets.

The early-morning London games almost always come down to which team is more prepared to play in the difficult circumstances. For me, that team will be the Falcons as they have a veteran quarterback in Matt Ryan who has played overseas before. Both teams have first-year head coaches, but I trust Ryan to get the job done.

Matchup To Watch: Chris Lindstrom (ATL OG) vs. Quinnen Williams (NYJ DT)
My Pick: Falcons win 23-13, Falcons cover, under 44 points

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings

This past week’s game was an anomaly for the Vikings as one of the better offenses in the NFL was completely shut down at home. Minnesota scored a touchdown on its opening drive and then did not score another point for the remainder of the game. Cleveland’s defense smothered the Vikings as Kirk Cousins was hit ten times, and Dalvin Cook finished with just nine carries for 34 yards. The Lions are coming to town this week and should provide an excellent opponent for a bounce-back game for Minnesota. Cook should be in for a big game against a weak run defense, and the Lions don’t have the secondary pieces to match with Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen.

Detroit, meanwhile, struggled to move the ball against the Chicago defense in Week 4. Jared Goff threw for 299 yards and two touchdowns but was sacked four times. The Lions’ offensive line has been decent but has struggled without left tackle Taylor Decker in the lineup. The Vikings don’t have quite the front seven talent of the Bears. Still, Danielle Hunter, Everson Griffen, Sheldon Richardson, and Dalvin Tomlinson could make life very difficult on the Lions upfront. D’Andre Swift had a challenging game against that strong front seven last week and will be faced with another tough matchup in this one.

The Vikings have won seven straight games against the Lions, and you can make the case that at no point during that stretch has the talent gap been as disparate as it is this season. Minnesota’s offensive pieces are well-equipped to beat up on a weak Detroit defense and, if Taylor Decker misses again, Goff could struggle to keep pace with a fired-up Kirk Cousins.

Matchup To Watch: Penei Sewell (DET OT) vs. Danielle Hunter (MIN DE)
My Pick: Vikings win 28-23, Lions cover, over 49 points

New Orleans Saints @ Washington Football Team

One of the biggest surprises of the 2021 season for me has been how weak the Washington defense has been, and that didn’t change in Week 4. With little fight put up, Washington allowed the Falcons to get to 30 points and have now allowed 30+ points in three straight games. That sets the Saints up for success in this game after a disappointing game against the Giants. A penalty nullified a touchdown on a drive that resulted in an interception. General inefficiency saw the Saints score just 21 points on the Giants despite moving the ball well throughout the game. Jameis Winston completed 17 of 23 passes, and while his Jekyll-and-hyde season continues, Winston can make plays against a weak Washington secondary.

Taylor Heinecke was very impressive in Week 4 as he threw the game-winning touchdown pass to J.D. McKissic. He finished with 290 passing yards and three touchdowns, two of which went to all-world wide receiver Terry McLaurin. While Curtis Samuel wasn’t productive, his return to the lineup was a welcome sight for the Washington offense, especially as Logan Thomas and Brandon Scherff left the game with injuries. Antonio Gibson registered his first rushing touchdown of the year last week, but he only had 75 yards from scrimmage on 16 touches, and the dreams of him evolving into a Christian McCaffrey-sized role seem far-fetched.

Washington needed a miraculous J.D. McKissic 30-yard touchdown catch to beat the Falcons, and the Saints’ defense will present much more of a challenge for Taylor Heinecke. New Orleans will be hungry for retribution after losing a game they should have won, and I trust Sean Payton to engineer a road win against a struggling Washington defense.

Matchup To Watch: Terry McLaurin (WAS WR) vs. Marshon Lattimore (NO CB)
My Pick: Saints win 27-23, Saints cover, over 44 points

New England Patriots @ Houston Texans

I was very impressed with the Patriots on Sunday Night Football as they game-planned for Tom Brady perfectly and made the game very competitive. The Buccaneers gutted out a hard-fought win, but Mac Jones and the Patriots’ defense were excellent. Jones was under fire all game against a tough Buccaneers pass rush but he completed 19 straight passes at one point, tying Tom Brady’s career record. The Patriots had nothing going on the ground with just -1 yard on 8 carries, leaving Jones to shoulder the offensive burden and he handled himself extremely well. A matchup this week against a hapless Texans’ defense should prove much easier, and I have confidence in Damien Harris to have a much better game on the ground.

Davis Mills was downright awful in a loss to the Bills as he threw for just 87 yards and four interceptions to finish with a putrid QBR of just 0.8. This week, things won’t be any easier for Mills as the Patriots are notorious for picking on rookie quarterbacks – check out Zach Wilson’s four-interception game from earlier this year for further evidence. Bill Belichick is excellent at taking away the opposing offense’s best weapon, and in this case, that will be the former Patriot Brandin Cooks. If Cooks is unproductive, there aren’t many pieces on this Houston offense I trust to keep the chains moving.

There isn’t a ton to this game, and it comes at a good time for New England as they need to get back in the win column to maintain their hopes of earning a playoff spot. Mac Jones is playing inspirational football, and he should lead the Patriots to an easy win against one of the worst teams in the NFL.
Matchup To Watch: Brandin Cooks (HOU WR) vs. J.C. Jackson (NE CB)
My Pick: Patriots win 27-10, Patriots cover, under 42 points

Miami Dolphins @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This season, the Dolphins have dropped to 1-3 and are looking for answers after another uninspired offensive showing. Jacoby Brissett was fine, but he was sacked three times and had a rough fumble late in the game that just about sealed the Colts’ win. Miami’s offensive line has struggled in pass-protection whether it has been for Tua Tagovailoa or Brissett, and that does not bode well for them against the ferocious Buccaneers’ front seven that hit Mac Jones 12 times on Sunday. In his rookie season, Joe Tryon is providing an additional pass-rush threat, and he added two sacks against New England. The Buccaneers are dealing with injuries in their secondary to Sean Murphy-Bunting, Jamel Dean, Carlton Davis, and Antoine Winfield Jr., and their lack of depth on the back-end is a major concern moving forward.

Tom Brady is coming off one of his worst games in recent memory as he completed just 51.1% of his passes and seemed to be overthrowing his wide receivers constantly. The brutal rain and cold combination with the uncomfortable proposition of playing his old teammates back in New England for the first time contributed to his less-than-stellar performance. However, the Miami defense should provide a rebound game for him as Carson Wentz moved the ball against them with ease last week. The Dolphins’ defense has good pieces but has been hit-or-miss this season, and Brady should be capable of beating them.

The Buccaneers followed up a hollow road loss to the Rams with a gutsy road win over the Patriots and now return home to host a struggling Dolphins team. In this game, Jacoby Brissett might have a couple of downfield completions to Will Fuller, Jaylen Waddle, and DeVante Parker. Still, I don’t trust the Miami offensive line to keep him upright enough to make this game enjoyable.

Matchup To Watch: Mike Evans (TB WR) vs. Xavien Howard (MIA CB)
My Pick: Buccaneers win 38-17, Buccaneers cover, over 50 points

Green Bay Packers @ Cincinnati Bengals

It’s easy to look at the Bengals’ 3-1 record and confidently think they’re a playoff contender, but I have ongoing doubts about this team. Last week, the Jaguars took a 14-0 lead into halftime against them and made anyone who picked Cincy in their survivor pool sweat it out for the more significant part of that game. It was a gutsy win by Joe Burrow as he completed 78% of his passes for 348 yards and two touchdowns, but they won’t survive against the Packers if they fail to score for an entire half. Cincinnati’s other wins have come against a Vikings team with 116 yards of penalties and a Steelers team missing several starters, so I am not sold on them yet.

The Packers, meanwhile, handled the Steelers relatively quickly in Week 4 as their defense created pressure on Ben Roethlisberger and forced two turnovers. It wasn’t the prettiest win for the Packers as Aaron Rodgers completed just 55% of his passes against a potent Pittsburgh front seven, but Randall Cobb had a throwback game with two touchdown catches. If he re-emerges as a reliable pass-catcher alongside Davante Adams and Aaron Jones, it will make the Green Bay offense all the more dangerous. The Bengals’ defense improved from last year, but Rodgers should be in for a solid game.

The Bengals have not convinced me that they are a legitimate playoff contender, and I believe their 3-1 start is a mirage. Before the season, the Packers likely would have been favored by about a touchdown even on the road against this team. I’ll be hammering the Packers at -3.5 and consider it one of the best bets of the week.

Matchup To Watch: Ja’Marr Chase (CIN WR) vs. Jaire Alexander (GB CB)
My Pick: Packers win 27-21, Packers cover, under 48.5 points

Denver Broncos @ Pittsburgh Steelers

The Broncos had been unbeaten entering Sunday, but wins over the Jets, Jaguars, and Giants weren’t convincing. Baltimore proved that Denver still has a lot of work before they should be considered an obvious playoff contender. Teddy Bridgewater suffered a concussion and was ruled out for the rest of the game, but even before that happened, he had completed under 50% of his passes, and the Broncos were already struggling to move the ball. Denver allowed 11 QB hits on Sunday, and that is a concerning piece of the puzzle as they head into a road matchup against a potent Steelers’ front seven. It’s unclear if Bridgewater will be able to play, but regardless, I have concerns about the Denver offense.

Pittsburgh has not shown an ability to compete offensively either so far this season. Ben Roethlisberger has continued to overthrow receivers downfield, and his lack of accuracy has hurt players like Chase Claypool and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Diontae Johnson has still succeeded in the short and intermediate areas of the field, but he faces a powerful Denver secondary this week. The Steelers’ offensive line has shown a complete inability to protect Roethlisberger this season, and they’re going to struggle against a Von Miller-led Broncos pass rush. Najee Harris has also suffered in terms of efficiency due to the poor offensive line play, and that’s unlikely to change this week.

These teams are working with talented offenses but limited quarterback play and middling-to-bad offensive lines while both teams have elite defenses. There are a lot of similarities in this matchup. For me, this comes down to whether or not Teddy Bridgewater is active, and I trust a noodle-armed Ben Roethlisberger more than Drew Lock at this point. This could be the type of game where a defensive or special teams touchdown decides it.

Matchup To Watch: Bobby Massie (DEN OT) vs. T.J. Watt (PIT OLB)
My Pick: Steelers win 20-19, Steelers cover, under 42 points

Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers

It’s another year where the Eagles are dealing with an absurd number of offensive line injuries – Lane Johnson, Jordan Mailata, and Jason Kelce are all questionable this week, while Brandon Brooks is on Injured Reserve and will be out for several more weeks. While Carolina’s defense struggled to contain Dak Prescott last week, they still have one of the best young defenses in the NFL. With a defensive line featuring Brian Burns, DaQuan Jones, Derrick Brown, and Haason Reddick, Carolina should take advantage of a weak Philly O-line. We’ve seen repeatedly from the Eagles that if they’re unable to run the ball, their offense will be largely ineffective.

Sam Darnold had a decent game on Sunday, and he added another two rushing touchdowns to bring his total to a league-leading 5 for the year. He also threw for 301 yards and two touchdowns, both of which went to D.J. Moore. In his fourth season in the NFL, Moore is evolving into one of the best receivers the league has to offer. While Moore isn’t on Tyreek Hill’s level, Hill roasted the Eagles last week, and that bodes well for Moore to have another standout performance. The Carolina offense has enough pieces and a strong coaching nucleus to put up points in bunches even without Christian McCaffrey.

I have gone from bullish on Jalen Hurts to quite convinced he’s not an NFL-caliber starter in a matter of weeks, and perhaps I’m over-correcting to that side. Nonetheless, with so many offensive line injuries, I have a hard time believing in the Eagles’ offense this week against one of the league’s better defenses. It’s been two straight blowout losses for Philadelphia, and this week may make it three.

Matchup To Watch: D.J. Moore (CAR WR) vs. Darius Slay (PHI CB)
My Pick: Panthers win 30-24, Panthers cover, over 47 points

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

The Titans suffered a bit of an embarrassing loss to the Jets last week as New York earned its first win, and the failure can partially be blamed on a disappointing offensive effort with A.J. Brown, and Julio Jones sidelined. However, the biggest issue in the game wasn’t the offense, as Ryan Tannehill still threw for almost 300 yards, and Derrick Henry ran for 157 yards and a touchdown. The offensive line failed to hold up against what had been an underwhelming Jets’ defensive front and Tannehill was sacked seven times and hit fourteen times. The biggest issue, however, was that the Titans’ defense failed to put up any sort of solid resistance against Zach Wilson, the rookie quarterback. He had struggled mightily before last week.

Tennessee faces another rookie passer in Trevor Lawrence this week, and he seemed to make significant strides in Week 4. He didn’t have a touchdown pass last week, but he did complete over 70% of his passes and led three long touchdown drives. Tennessee’s defensive additions haven’t led to consistency on that end and, while they’ve looked good from time to time, the Titans are still among the league’s worst defenses. Lawrence should continue to progress in this game as he works out the rookie kinks in the NFL.

The Jaguars nearly knocked off the Bengals last week and should be considered a legitimate threat to cover the spread in any matchup. We don’t have an update on A.J. Brown and Julio Jones yet, but even if those two play, the Titans have some major offensive issues that need ironing out. They still get the win here, but the Jaguars keep things more interesting than some expect.

Matchup To Watch: Taylor Lewan (TEN OT) vs. Josh Allen (JAX DE)
My Pick: Titans win 24-21, Jaguars cover, under 51.5 points

Cleveland Browns @ Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers are now 2-0 in the AFC West after a decisive win over the Raiders on Monday Night Football. Justin Herbert is becoming one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and he threw for 222 yards and 3 touchdowns against what had been a rocking Raiders defense. He far outplayed Derek Carr, a quarterback who many had discussed as a dark-horse MVP candidate prior to last week. Austin Ekeler exploded for 145 yards from scrimmage and 2 touchdowns on 18 touches and is one of the most dynamic all-purpose offensive players in the league. Jared Cook and Donald Parham Jr. each had a touchdown catch and while Keenan Allen and Mike Williams had quieter games, this offense has an overwhelming amount of firepower for opposing defenses to deal with. The Browns are one of the few defenses that can handle the challenge after they held the Vikings to just 7 points on Sunday.

Baker Mayfield only has two touchdown passes through four games, but Cleveland really hasn’t needed him to be anything more than a game manager thanks to an elite run game and defense. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are far and away the best running back tandem in the NFL and they combined for just under 200 yards from scrimmage against Minnesota. The Chargers have run a funnel defense that has allowed opponents to compile quite a bit of rushing yardage this season, so it will be interesting to see that matched up with the Browns’ elite rushing attack. The Browns haven’t needed to rely on their downfield passing weapons this season and Odell Beckham Jr. has been underwhelming with just seven catches for 104 yards through his two games.

This game is going to be a toss-up, but the Browns’ defense has been electric this season and has held its last three opponents to just 11.3 points per game. The Chargers have also seen some excellent defensive improvement under new head coach Brandon Staley, so I’m expecting this game to be a bit of a slog. I’ll take the Chargers to get the win at home.

Matchup To Watch: Rashawn Slater (LAC OT) vs. Myles Garrett (CLE DE)
My Pick: Chargers win 23-20, Chargers cover, under 47.5 points

Chicago Bears @ Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders had their worst offensive performance of the season on Monday night as Derek Carr finished with a passer rating of just 84.9. He threw for under 200 yards for the first time this season and took four sacks as the Raiders’ offensive line failed to hold up against Joey Bosa and company. That doesn’t bode well for Carr against the Bears’ Khalil Mack in an elite front seven. However, Chicago’s secondary will likely struggle to hold up in this game. Darren Waller can take advantage in the seam while Henry Ruggs, Bryan Edwards, and Hunter Renfrow provide a dynamic set of pass-catchers for Carr to work with. The Raiders have had offensive success against the Ravens and Steelers this season so I’m not concerned about Carr’s ability to move the ball against the Bears.

Justin Fields’s second career start went a lot better than his first as he led the Bears to 24 points in a win over the Lions. However, he still only completed 11 of 17 passes and threw an interception. The Bears’ offensive line held up against one of the worst pass-rushes in the NFL, but I don’t expect the same success against a ferocious pass rush featuring Maxx Crosby, Yannick Ngakoue, and Carl Nassib. The Browns sacked Fields nine times a couple of weeks ago. While he is getting more comfortable in the NFL, one of his biggest weaknesses coming into the NFL was accuracy under pressure so I’m highly concerned about the offense this week. That’s especially true after David Montgomery suffered a potentially significant injury.

Las Vegas should be due for a big bounce-back game this week, although the Bears’ defense does present yet another tough test for Carr and company. I still trust the Raiders to cover the spread at home in this game as their defense has the ability to make life miserable for rookie quarterback Justin Fields.

Matchup To Watch: Allen Robinson (CHI WR) vs. Casey Hayward Jr. (LAC CB)
My Pick: Raiders 27-17, Raiders cover, under 45 points

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals may have just earned the win of the season in Week 4 as they went on the road to Los Angeles and beat down the 3-0 Rams. Arizona had lost eight straight games against Los Angeles, so that was a real monkey-off-the-back type game for them – their last win over the Rams was in January 2017. Kyler Murray was brilliant despite the tougher matchup as he still completed 75% of his passes for 268 yards and two touchdowns. Chase Edmonds ran all over the Rams’ defense to the tune of 120 yards on 12 carries while A.J. Green stepped up as a pass-cacher with five receptions for 67 yards and a touchdown as DeAndre Hopkins drew the more brutal coverage against Jalen Ramsey. Arizona’s defense also did an excellent job of slowing down one of the hottest offenses in football.

The 49ers had an early 7-0 lead over the Seahawks that they took late into the second quarter, but a calf injury for Jimmy Garoppolo derailed the offense. Trey Lance looked decent in relief, and he did throw for two touchdowns, and he should fare better with a whole week to prepare to be the starter this week as it seems unlikely Jimmy G will be back in time to play in this game. Deebo Samuel continues his breakout season as one of the best receivers in the NFL, and he finished with eight catches for 156 yards and two touchdowns. It will be fun to see what the Niners’ offense looks like with Trey Lance under center.

The Lance hype will be genuine this week, and the 49ers will look to avoid dropping to 2-3 early this season, but the Cardinals are the hottest team in the league and are playing balanced football on both ends of the field. Kyler Murray seems to be matchup-proof now, and the transitionary aspect of the Niners’ offense could hold them back a bit. Arizona gets another big win to move to 5-0.

Matchup To Watch: Trent Williams (SF OT) vs. Chandler Jones (ARI DE)
My Pick: Cardinals win 27-24, 49ers cover, under 53.5 points

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys

The Giants finally got their first win of the season on Sunday as they beat the Saints in New Orleans in overtime. Saquon Barkley seems to be fully back to his old self as he had 126 yards from scrimmage on 18 touches and two touchdowns, including the game-winner in overtime. Daniel Jones did throw his first interception of the season, but he played a very efficient game overall despite a tough matchup on the road against a stout defense. Kenny Golladay also had his best game as a Giant with six catches for 116 yards, while Kadarius Toney finally got involved with six catches for 78 yards. The New York offense is a different beast than what we’ve seen in recent seasons, and despite some uneven performances to start the year, this team deserves to be taken seriously.

The Cowboys, meanwhile, look like they might run away with the division at 3-1 now. Dak Prescott was excellent against the Panthers’ stout defense as he threw for four touchdowns on only 22 passing attempts while Ezekiel Elliott had 143 yards rushing and a touchdown on 20 carries. Dallas is one of the best examples in the NFL of how complementary rushing and passing football can create elite offensive production. New York’s defense has been better on paper than it has been in real life, and the likes of Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb will create real issues for the Giants on the perimeter.

Outside of a loss last season, the Cowboys have owned the rivalry against the Giants with wins in seven of their last eight matchups. Dak Prescott is one of those quarterbacks who I just have a tough time betting against at this point, and while I think the Cowboys win this game, the Giants’ new-look offense is better than Vegas appears to be giving them credit for.

Matchup To Watch: Kenny Golladay (NYG WR) vs. Trevon Diggs (DAL CB)
My Pick: Cowboys win 30-24, Giants cover, over 53 points

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs needed a bounce-back win and they found it against the Eagles as Patrick Mahomes threw for five touchdowns, three of which went to Tyreek Hill. The All-Pro wide receiver finished with 11 catches for 186 yards and three touchdowns in the game as the Eagles had no clue how to contain him. Travis Kelce had a quieter game against the Eagles in Week 4 but should be a significant factor in this one. The Bills have some elite secondary talent, but they’ve had a tough time containing Hill in the past, as well. The Chiefs have found their run game in recent weeks, as well, as Clyde Edwards-Helaire went for over 100 yards rushing again in this game. That offensive balance is all the more important against a stout defense like Buffalo.

Buffalo had its second shutout defeat in as many games in Week 4 as they blanked the Texans 40-0. Josh Allen was excellent, as expected, while the Zack Moss-Devin Singletary combination helped the Bills maintain a balanced offensive approach. The Chiefs have struggled against the run this season, and Buffalo’s newfound run game could help them keep their offense on the field for longer. Dawson Knox seems to be rapidly improving in his third year in the NFL as he had another two touchdowns on Sunday while, of course, Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, and Cole Beasley headline one of the best receiving corps in the NFL.

The Chiefs have had the Bills’ number in recent seasons, but a blowout win against the Eagles doesn’t fully mask the fact that they are still dealing with a number of issues on both sides of the ball. With an improved pass rush, the Bills’ defense can make Patrick Mahomes’s life uncomfortable, and I’m taking Josh Allen to earn the first win of his career over Patrick Mahomes.

Matchup To Watch: Tyreek Hill (KC WR) vs. Tre’Davious White (BUF CB)
My Pick: Bills win 31-28, Bills cover, over 57 points

Monday, October 11

Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens

The Colts were on the precipice of an 0-4 start as Frank Reich got his guys ready to take on a struggling Dolphins team. Carson Wentz had his best game as a member of the group as he completed 75% of his passes for 228 yards and two touchdowns, both of which went to Mo Alie-Cox. Michael Pittman Jr. continues to emerge as the team’s top receiver in his sophomore season, while Jonathan Taylor had his best game of the year with 16 carries for 103 yards and a touchdown. Indianapolis’s offensive line finally held up for Carson Wentz, but this matchup against a strong Baltimore front seven stands to be a more challenging test. Indianapolis’s defense will also be put to the test by Lamar Jackson.

Last week, the Ravens faced a Broncos defense fully committed to selling out and stopping the run. Baltimore accepted the strategy and let Lamar Jackson loose as he threw for over 300 yards for just the second time in his career. Marquise Brown finished with four catches for 91 yards and a touchdown, while Mark Andrews had five catches for 67 yards. James Proche even got in on the action and had five catches for 74 yards. It was good to see that the Ravens can win in different ways offensively, but they will likely be able to get right back to being a run-heavy team against the Colts this week.

Indianapolis looked great last week, but they still have some significant issues on both sides of the ball. Baltimore’s front seven will challenge Wentz and the offensive line in ways that Miami never could, and the Colts’ defense is not capable of slowing down Lamar Jackson. This should be an exciting game, but the Ravens are the better team on both sides of the ball.

Matchup To Watch: Marquise Brown (BAL WR) vs. Xavier Rhodes (IND CB)
My Pick: Ravens win 24-20, Colts cover, under 48 points