NFL Week 7 Best Bets & Predictions: Betting Picks For NFL Sunday
Get NFL Week 7 best bets and predictions for the Sunday slate.
Week 7 Best Bets & Predictions
Week 6 in the NFL was much better to us in terms of picking sides, although player props were down a bit. However, we’re striving for more consistency and getting there as the season goes along. This week, there are some great spots to target for value, and I can’t wait to break them down for you guys. As always, check out my Twitter profile @wayne_sports_ for the latest bets I’ve placed in the NFL and college football, as well as a few other sports from time to time. Let’s get to work.
NFL YTD: 47-39.5 (54.3%)
New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars
This game will stand out to the betting public. “The Jaguars are 2-4 and 3-point home favorites over the 5-1 Giants?” However, as we know well at this point, wins are a poor metric for predicting future success. Football Outsiders has an estimated win metric that puts the Jaguars at 3.1 wins and the Giants at 2.7. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are a better team than the Giants in just about every advanced metric we can find:
- Offensive DVOA: Giants rank 13th, Jaguars rank 11th
- Defensive DVOA: Giants rank 30th, Jaguars rank 10th
- Offensive EPA/play: Giants rank 8th, Jaguars rank 10th
- Defensive EPA/play: Giants rank 22nd, Jaguars rank 9th
- Offensive drive quality: Giants rank 18th, Jaguars rank 10th
- Defensive drive quality: Giants rank 22nd, Jaguars rank 9th
Despite those staggering defensive metrics, the Giants have allowed just 18.8 points per game, the seventh-fewest in the NFL. However, their opponents so far have ranked are on average the 22nd-best in drive quality and 21st-best in offensive EPA. If you remove the Ravens, who held a 20-10 fourth-quarter lead before caving, those numbers fall to 26th in drive quality and 25th in EPA.
Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale has masked some of his defense’s personnel shortcomings with his blitz-heavy, man coverage scheme. The Giants blitz at a 50% rate, by far the highest in the NFL, and play man coverage at the fourth-highest rate. Trevor Lawrence has excelled against those types of defenses. He has an 0.19 EPA/play against the blitz, the seventh-best in the NFL, and an 0.25 EPA/play against man coverage, the 12th-best in the NFL.
Wink Martindale's defense now leads the NFL with a 43.7% blitz percentage, per @NextGenStats.
That's defined as 5 or more pass rushers on an opposing QB drop back.
Next Gen ranks Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence as 6th best NFL QB vs the blitz
(Daniel Jones is 3rd 👀)
— Pat Leonard (@PLeonardNYDN) October 19, 2022
The Jaguars rank 32nd in overall variance per Football Outsiders, and they’ve been tough to trust on a week-to-week basis. However, that’s to be expected for such a young team coming off the miserable Urban Meyer season, and Doug Pederson should lead his group to more consistent results over the long haul. The Giants have been a great story to this point, but Jacksonville is a uniquely difficult opponent for them, and I believe the Jaguars can roll in this game.
Best Bet: Jaguars -3 (play to -3)
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
The Titans have had the Colts’ number lately as they’ve won four straight and five of their last six against their divisional rival. Earlier this year, Tennessee took home a 24-17 road win despite failing to score in the second half. This time around, the Titans are coming off their bye week with extra rest and have the home field advantage, but they’re favored by under a field goal at home. That sets us up with nice value.
Derrick Henry has owned the Colts in his career, and he’s averaging over 105 rushing yards per game in 11 career games where he was the starter for the Titans. The Colts started the year as one of the best run defenses in the league, but that was far from the case last week as they gave up 243 yards on the ground to the Jaguars at a whopping 7.4 YPC clip. The Colts are now ranked 15th in run defense EPA ahead of their matchup with Henry.
Derrick Henry's Top Plays at the Bye 🚜
📺: More coverage on @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/tcN1x5CHHH
— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) October 16, 2022
On the other side of the ball, Matt Ryan is coming off his best performance of the season, but the offensive line still presents a ton of problems. Matt Pryor kicked to right guard and let up five pressures last week. He’ll be tasked with blocking Jeffery Simmons in this matchup, the Titans three-tech lineman who’s ranked third behind only Chris Jones and Aaron Donald in pass rush grade among interior defensive linemen per PFF. He and Denico Autry combined for four pressures and two sacks when these teams met a couple of weeks ago.
Favorites off a bye week are roughly 57% ATS over the last decade and Mike Vrabel has performed very well in that spot, going 4-0 ATS off a bye with the Titans. The Titans’ two best players, Henry and Simmons, are in an excellent position to make a big impact on this game, and all of the trends are backing Tennessee in this spot. I’ll happily play the Titans under a field goal in this game.
Best Bet: Titans -2.5 (bet to -3)
Houston Texans at Las Vegas Raiders
The Texans are taking some sharp money in this game, which isn’t overly surprising to me given the trends that back underdogs of seven or more points in the NFL. However, this is as must-win as it gets for the Raiders if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive, and they should be incredibly well-prepared for it. Of course, with the Texans also coming off their bye week, that advantage is somewhat neutralized. However, the Raiders are the far more talented team. Let’s take a look.
We knew the trio of Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow, and Darren Waller would be elite, but Josh Jacobs has also had a great season behind an offensive line that is surprisingly ranked first in the league in adjusted line yards per Football Outsiders. That sets up as a significant mismatch against the Texans who rank 23rd in defensive adjusted line yards. Derek Stingley Jr. has helped Houston’s secondary rank 9th in coverage on PFF, but they will still be overmatched against that receiving corps.
On the other side of the ball, the Texans will likely struggle to keep the pocket clean for Davis Mills with Maxx Crosby on top of his game right now. Davis Mills ranks just 30th in EPA+CPOE composite, and his 37.5% success rate ranks second-worst among qualified passers. Mills has been better this season, but he was the second-lowest graded quarterback under pressure in 2021 per PFF (min. 55 dropbacks). Mills will especially struggle if the Texans can’t establish their rushing offense against the Raiders’ top-ranked run defense by EPA.
Maxx Crosby in 2022
– 6 sacks (1st)
– 11 tackles for loss (1st)
– 17 run stops (1st)
– 22 pressures (4th)
– 18% pass rush win rate (24th)Tier 1 edge rusher? pic.twitter.com/Bkyzbz0Iqo
— Nico (@elitetakes_) October 12, 2022
If you look at Football Outsiders’ estimated win metrics, the Raiders should have around 2.6 wins this year. That checks out. They went 2-6 in the red-zone against the Titans, suffered a complete second-half meltdown against the Cardinals, and came incredibly close to beating the Chiefs prior to their bye week. This game profiles as an excellent buy-low spot for a team that is better than its record indicates.
Derek Carr has quietly had an excellent season with the ninth-best rating in EPA+CPOE composite, and it should only get better as he gets more used to Josh McDaniels’ system and the receiving corps gets healthier. The Raiders should ride a balanced offense and consistent pressure on Mills to a decisive win. You can feel free to use the Raiders in your teasers and Moneyline parlays, but I’m just using the Raiders -7 as my best bet.
Best Bet: Raiders -7 (play to -7)
Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers
Game Info: Sunday, October 23, 4:25 PM EST
Coverage: FOX
The Chiefs might be the most square bet on the board in Week 7, but sometimes you have to accept that and follow the value. If the 49ers were fully healthy, I’d be intrigued by them as a home underdog, but they are far from it. Check out their current injury report by designation:
IR/Out: QB Trey Lance, RB Elijah Mitchell, OT Colton McKivitz, DT Javon Kinlaw, CB Emmanuel Mosley, CB Jason Verrett, LB Azeez Al-Shaair
Questionable: OT Mike McGlinchey, DT Arik Armstead, DE Nick Bosa, OT Trent Williams, S Talanoa Hufanga
Those injuries clearly hampered the Niners last week against the Falcons, and while they had more yards than Atlanta (346-289), they could never establish a ground game as they averaged just 3.1 YPC. The Niners are now ranked an uncharacteristic 24th in adjusted line yards per Football Outsiders, and it won’t get better soon with the injuries upfront. The Chiefs rank 13th in run defense EPA, and while they aren’t elite, the Niners struggled against Atlanta’s 24th-ranked run defense.
If the Niners can’t establish their rushing offense against Kansas City, that will put more pressure on Jimmy Garoppolo. Last week, he threw two interceptions, and he finished with a poor QBR of 36.2. Jimmy G’s -4.5 CPOE is fourth-worst among qualified passers. The Niners’ interior offensive line has especially struggled, and Chris Jones should have a field day. He has 24 total pressures this season, tied with Aaron Donald for the most among interior defensive linemen.
Chris Jones: The best defender in football this season pic.twitter.com/fRx3LQvHUQ
— PFF (@PFF) October 12, 2022
Under other circumstances, I’d have some concerns about Patrick Mahomes against this Niners’ pass defense. San Francisco leads the NFL in dropback EPA and ranks third in dropback success rate. However, they’ve faced the third-easiest schedule of opposing offenses by DVOA, and their pass-rush has been seriously weakened due to the injuries along their defensive line. Even if Kansas City can’t establish the run against the top-ranked run defense by DVOA, Mahomes should find plenty of success through the air.
Before the season, I circled this game as one I was particularly looking forward to, but the Niners simply aren’t well-equipped right now to give the Chiefs a real fight. I’m surprised this line hasn’t moved more to this point, and I’m willing to play this one to -3.5, but hopefully, you don’t have to. Sportsbooks are starting to hang some juice at the -3 line, and I expect it to reach -3.5 later in the week.
Best Bet: Chiefs -3 (play to -3.5)
