NFL Week 7 Betting Trends: Historic Trends Don’t Favor the Favorites After Absurd Week 6 Success

Week 7 has arrived, and a handful of the most entertaining teams are on bye this week. The Bills, Cowboys, Chargers, Vikings, Steelers, and Jaguars do not take the field in Week 7. Still, there are several exciting games to watch this week, and you can check out my analysis on every game in my Week 7 Lines & Predictions article. In this weekly article, I take a look at some of the most crucial betting trends in the NFL heading into Week 7 in hopes of helping you make more intelligent and more profitable bets – let’s dive in.

Interesting Trends So Far

One of the weirdest trends of this NFL season has been the success of road teams. With fans back in stadiums, there was the expectation that home teams would have a disproportionate amount of success, but that has not been the case so far. In Week 6, road teams finished 9-5 straight up and 9-5 ATS. That brings road teams to 50-44 straight up and 54-40 ATS on the year. Luckily for the betting public, favorites fared well in Week 6 as they finished 10-4 straight up and 8-6 ATS. 2021 has been an up-and-down year for favorites, though, as they are 58-35 straight up but just 43-51 on the year. I don’t expect the favorites to overwhelmingly cover again this week. In seven of the ten non-overtime games, the total went under, continuing a trend of the under being 49-33 in non-overtime games and 51-42 in all competitions this season.

Week 7 Betting Trends to Know

*Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook

Denver Broncos vs. Cleveland Browns (-2, O/U 40.5)

  • Broncos are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 Thursday night games
  • Browns are 4-26 ATS in their last 30 games ater accumulating 90 yards rushing or fewer
  • Under is 5-0 in the Broncos’ last 5 games after allowing 30 or fewer points
  • Under is 5-1 in the Browns’ last 6 Thursday night games

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens (-6.5, O/U 47)

  • Bengals are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record
  • Ravens are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a winning road record
  • Bengals are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in Baltimore
  • Under is 5-0 in the Bengals’ last 5 games
  • Under is 4-0 in the Ravens’ last 4 games after scoring 30+ points

Washington Football Team vs. Green Bay Packers (-7.5, O/U 48.5)

  • Washington is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss
  • Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in October
  • Under is 9-2 in Washington’s last 11 games against a winning team
  • Under is 6-0 in the Packers’ last 6 games in October

Atlanta Falcons (-2.5, O/U 47.5) vs. Miami Dolphins

  • Falcons are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against a losing team
  • Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog
  • Over is 23-11-1 in the Falcons’ last 35 games against a losing team
  • Over is 4-0 in the Dolphins’ last 4 games after allowing 350+ yards

New York Jets vs. New England Patriots (-7, O/U 43)

  • Jets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against a losing team
  • Patriots are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as the favorite
  • Jets are 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings between these teams
  • Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings between these teams

Carolina Panthers (-3, O/U 42.5) vs. New York Giants

  • Panthers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games
  • Giants are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after an ATS loss
  • Under is 6-1 in the Panthers’ last 7 games as a road favorite
  • Under is 5-0-1 in the Giants’ last 6 games as a home underdog

Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5, O/U 58) vs. Tennessee Titans

  • Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October
  • Titans are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games on Sunday following a Monday night game
  • Over is 5-1 in the Chiefs’ last 6 games after a straight up win
  • Over is 9-1-1 in the Titans’ last 11 games after an ATS win

Detroit Lions vs. Los Angeles Rams (-14.5, O/U 51)

  • Lions are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing 250+ passing yards
  • Rams are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after winning by 14+ points
  • Over is 5-1 in the Lions’ last 6 games after scoring 15 or fewer points
  • Over is 6-1-1 in the Rams’ last 8 games overall

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-3, O/U 49.5)

  • Eagles are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games and their last 9 games after an ATS win
  • Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite
  • Under is 6-1 in the Eagles’ last 7 games after an ATS win
  • Over is 6-1 in the Raiders’ last 7 home games

Houston Texans vs. Arizona Cardinals (-17.5, O/U 47.5)

  • Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after an ATS loss
  • Cardinals are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games as a home favorite
  • Under is 6-1 in the Texans’ last 7 games against a winning team
  • Under is 8-2 in the Cardinals’ last 10 games against a losing team

Chicago Bears vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-12, O/U 47)

  • Bears are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games against a team with a winning home record
  • Buccaneers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after an ATS loss
  • Under is 10-2 in the Bears’ last 12 road games against a team with a winning home record
  • Under is 7-3 in the Buccaneers’ last 10 games after an ATS loss

Indianapolis Colts vs. San Francisco 49ers (-4.5, O/U 44)

  • Colts are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in October
  • 49ers are 5-22-1 ATS in their last 28 games as a home favorite
  • Over is 8-1 in the Colts’ last 9 games after accumulating 350+ yards
  • Over is 7-1 in the 49ers’ last 8 games after accumulating 150+ rushing yards

New Orleans Saints (-4.5, O/U 42.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks

    Saints are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games against a team with a losing home record

  • Seahawks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after an ATS win
  • Under is 10-2 in the Saints’ last 12 games after a straight up win
  • Under is 7-1 in the Seahawks’ last 8 games in October
I've been writing about sports for Lineups since the beginning of 2020 and on my own website since 2018. In May 2021, I graduated from the University of Michigan with a degree in sport management. As the United States embarks on an exciting journey towards the legalization of sports betting, I'm thrilled to have the opportunity to cover industry news, NFL and NBA odds, and more.

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