NFL Week 8 Betting Trends: Divisional Showdowns Headline Strong Slate

Week 7 was one of the wackiest weeks of NFL football I can remember, and it led to some bizarre betting results. Sometimes, even the most researched and logical bets can go sideways in the NFL, and Week 7 brought plenty of those types of results. Week 8 presents an almost-full NFL slate with only two teams on bye, and I’m very excited about a slate packed with exciting matchups. In this weekly article, I take a look at some of the most relevant recent betting trends in hopes of helping you make more intelligent and more profitable bets. As always, these trends are not meant to be the be-all-end-all for your betting picks but to help you better frame the upcoming matchups. Let’s dive in.

Interesting Trends This Season

One of the weirdest trends in the NFL this season had been the success of road teams, but that changed in Week 8 – home teams went 9-4 straight up and 9-4 against the spread (ATS). Road teams are now 53-54 straight up and 49-58 ATS on the season. Still, the expected home-field advantage from having fans back in the stands has not quite come to fruition in terms of betting – it’s not a factor I weigh super heavily in my betting picks.

Last week in this section, I wrote about how favorites have been very successful lately. In Week 7, favorites went 8-4 straight up but just 6-7 ATS. Home favorites were 6-2 straight up and 5-3 ATS, making Week 7 another good week for the betting public. Favorites are now 66-39 straight up but just 49-58 ATS this season. When favorites succeed, it’s better for the betting public as more bets are typically placed on the favored team.

In Week 7, the totals continued to trend lower as the under went 8-5 on the week. The under is now 59-47 on the season for a 55.7% success rate – if you bet $100 on the under in every game so far, you’d have $660 of profit on the season (assuming -110 odds). Don’t blindly bet on that to continue, but keep it in mind when looking at points totals this week.

Week 8 Betting Trends to Know

*Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook

Green Bay Packers vs. Arizona Cardinals (-6.5, O/U 50.5)

• Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a winning record
• Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a win of 14+ points
• Under is 5-0 in the Packers’ last 5 games as a road underdog
• Under is 4-1 in the Cardinals’ last 5 games as a favorite

Los Angeles Rams (-14, O/U 47.5) vs. Houston Texans

• Rams are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games after an ATS loss
• Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog
• Under is 6-1-1 in the Rams’ last 8 games against a team with a losing record
• Under is 7-1 in the Texans’ last 8 games against a team with a winning record

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns (-3.5, O/U 42)

• Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against the AFC North
• Home team is 5-2 ATS in these teams’ last 7 meetings
• Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings between these teams in Cleveland
• Under is 4-0 in the Browns’ last 4 games against the AFC North

Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, O/U 48.5) vs. Detroit Lions

• Eagles are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite
• Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after an ATS win
• Over is 6-1 in the Eagles’ last 7 games as a road favorite
• Under is 6-0 in the Lions’ last 6 games in October

San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, O/U 39.5) vs. Chicago Bears

• 49ers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against a team with a losing record
• Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against a team with a losing record
• Over is 5-1-1 in the 49ers’ last 7 games as a road favorite
• Under is 6-0 in the Bears’ last 6 games overall

Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons (-3, O/U 45.5)

• Panthers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against the Falcons
• Falcons are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games against a team with a losing record
• Under is 7-1 in the Panthers’ last 8 games after a loss of 14+ points
• Under is 12-3-1 in the last 16 meetings between these teams

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills (-14, O/U 49)

• Dolphins are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games against the Bills
• Bills are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a losing record
• Over is 5-1 in the last 6 games between these teams
• Over is 6-0 in the last 6 games in Buffalo between these teams

Cincinnati Bengals (-10.5, O/U 43) vs. New York Jets

• Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite
• Jets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog
• Under is 6-1 in the Bengals’ last 7 games against a team with a losing record
• Under is 9-2 in the Jets’ last 11 games against a team with a winning record

Tennessee Titans (-1, O/U 51) vs. Indianapolis Colts

• Titans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in Indianapolis
• Colts are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against AFC South teams
• Over is 7-1-1 in the Titans’ last 9 games in October
• Under is 14-6 in the last 20 games between these teams in Indianapolis

New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5, O/U 49)

• Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win
• Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite
• Under is 7-1 in the Patriots’ last 8 games after a straight up win
• Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these teams in Los Angeles

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, O/U 43)

• Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog
• Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a losing record
• Under is 5-1 in the Jaguars’ last 6 games as an underdog
• Under is 9-2 in the Seahawks’ last 11 games against a team with a losing record

Washington Football Team vs. Denver Broncos (-3, O/U 43.5)

• Football Team is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games as an underdog
• Broncos are 0-5 in their last 5 games in October
• Under is 7-1 in the Football Team’s last 8 games after scoring less than 15 points
• Under is 7-3 in the Broncos’ last 10 games as a home favorite

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5, O/U 49.5) vs. New Orleans Saints

• Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the NFC South
• Saints are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games against a team with a winning record
• The road team is 5-2 ATS in these teams’ last 7 meetings
• Over is 8-1 in the Buccaneers’ last 9 games following a straight up win of 14+ points
• Over is 5-1 in the Saints’ last 6 games in October

Dallas Cowboys (-2.5, O/U 55) vs. Minnesota Vikings

• Cowboys are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall
• Vikings are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games
• Over is 14-3-1 in the Cowboys’ last 18 games after a bye week
• Over is 5-0 in the Vikings’ last 5 games after a bye week

New York Giants vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5, O/U 51.5)

• Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road road games against a team with a losing home record
• Chiefs are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games
• Under is 6-1 in the Giants’ last 7 games after an ATS win
• Under is 5-1 in the Chiefs’ last 6 games after an ATS loss