NFL Week 8 Survivor Picks + Strategy
If you’re somehow still alive in your survivor pool, congratulations are in order. This past week might have been the wildest yet as the Buccaneers (-800), Packers (-205), Chargers (-235), and Patriots (-420) all lost as big favorites. 98% of the Circa Survivor pool has been eliminated, as you can see below, and there are only 125 entries remaining. As you can see below, the elimination pace is much higher this season than the prior two years:
#CircaSurvivor 🏈🏆
Elimination Pace
2022 Week 7 vs Past Seasons https://t.co/kFFsmZ7jEC pic.twitter.com/nZTjAbi3kR— Circa Sports (@CircaSports) October 25, 2022
Every week, we can use the data from Survivor Grid to get insight as to which teams are the most popular for the upcoming slate of games. Some of the most popular teams will fall, but that’s what makes survivor pools so much fun. While I’m out of my personal survivor pool, Week 8 presents plenty of opportunities for value, and I’ll be breaking down the top options here. Let’s get to work.
Week 8 Survivor Pool Most Used Teams
*The following teams are sorted by expected value (EV) via SurvivorGrid
Buffalo Bills (-10.5, 11.6% pick rate): Despite being 10.5-point home favorites in primetime, the Bills are only sitting at an 11.6% expected pick rate according to the SurvivorGrid site. However, with an 83.2% availability among that remaining Circa group, the Bills could wind up being a popular choice this week. The Packers are highly disappointing and fighting for their lives off a three-game losing streak, but escaping Buffalo with a much-needed win seems very unlikely.
Philadelphia Eagles (-11, 27.0% pick rate): Coming off a bye week and playing at home against the Steelers with rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett, the Eagles are a great choice for survivor pools this week. They do have solid future value, however, as they are projected to be favorites of 7+ points in at least six more games this year. With a 62.4% team availability in the Circa pool, they will likely be a bit lower in usage. While Pickett has played well in his debut year, it’s tough to imagine him going into Philly and upsetting the lone undefeated team in the NFL.
Dallas Cowboys (-9.5, 28.5% pick rate): Among the top three, the Cowboys are my preference. I laid the nine points with Dallas primarily due to the Bears playing their second straight road game on a short week after a highly emotional win over the Patriots in Foxboro. Dallas has the top defense in terms of pressure rate and Chicago has the worst offense in terms of pressure allowed, so the Bears are in trouble here. With a 92.8% remaining availability in the Circa pool, the Cowboys will be a popular choice.
Atlanta Falcons (-4, 3.7% pick rate): Following the top three choices, there’s a steep drop-off, and the Falcons are the next-most popular side. Sharp money has flooded in on the Panthers after their big upset of the Buccaneers, but I like the Falcons to win given their recent history of success against Carolina. Atlanta’s rushing offense is elite, and while their defense is banged up, I’ll trust the better coached team to win at home. With a 99.2% team availability rate, will anyone in the Circa pool have the guts to back Atlanta?
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5, 3.1% pick rate): Outside of the top three teams, the Bengals would be my favorite choice in survivor pools. However, they’re only available for 42.4% of the entrants in the Circa pool, so there’s a good chance you’ve already used them. If not, take advantage of the market’s slow reaction to the fact that they rank second in DVOA since their 0-2 start and have the second-ranked offense by EPA. Their heavy utilization of shotgun offense has worked wonderfully, and it should once again as they face the Browns’ 28th-ranked pass defense by DVOA.
