NFL Week 9 Betting Trends: Framing the Slate After a Wild Week 8 Full of Surprises and Upsets

Week 8 was the week of the upsets, and it’s going to make the betting public skittish after they very likely suffered significant losses on the week. In this weekly article, I take a look at some of the most relevant recent trends this season as well as historic trends for the upcoming matchup in an effort to help you make smarter, more profitable bets. As always, these trends are not always indicative of future results but can help you better frame the odds as you’re investigating the slate for the best betting lines. Let’s dive in.

Interesting Trends This Season

Week 8 was a brutal one for the betting public as favorites faltered and underdogs overachieved. Underdogs were 8-7 straight up and 10-4-1 ATS in Week 8, bringing their season record to 47-73 straight up and 68-53-1 ATS. After home teams were successful in Week 7, road teams went 9-6 straight up and 9-5-1 ATS in Week 8. One trend we were tracking in this column last week was unders hitting at a disproportionate rate. In Week 8, unders went 8-7 after going 8-5 in Week 7, bringing the season record for unders to 67-54.

Week 9 Betting Trends to Know

*Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook

New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts (-10.5, O/U 46)

  • Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against a team with a losing record
  • Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall
  • Over is 4-0 in the Jets’ last 4 games as an underdog
  • Over is 4-1 in the Colts’ last 5 games overall

Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints (-6, O/U 42)

  • Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against the NFC South
  • Falcons are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in New Orleans
  • Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November
  • Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams
  • Under is 6-1 in the Saints’ last 7 games against the NFC South

Denver Broncos vs. Dallas Cowboys (-9, O/U 49.5)

  • Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record
  • Cowboys are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall
  • Under is 4-1 in the Broncos’ last 5 games as a road underdog
  • Over is 4-0 in the Cowboys’ last 4 games as a favorite

New England Patriots (-3.5, O/U 41) vs. Carolina Panthers

  • Patriots are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win
  • Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November
  • Over is 4-0 in the Patriots’ last 4 games overall
  • Under is 9-2 in the Panthers’ last 11 games overall

Minnesota Vikings vs. Baltimore Ravens (-6, O/U 50)

  • Vikings are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall
  • Ravens are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a losing record
  • Over is 7-1 in the Vikings’ last 8 games in November
  • Over is 7-3 in the Ravens’ last 10 games in November

Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5, O/U 46.5)

  • Browns are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in Cincinnati
  • Bengals are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite
  • Over is 5-1 in the Browns’ last 6 games as a road underdog
  • Over is 4-1-1 in the Bengals’ last 6 games as a home favorite

Buffalo Bills (-14.5, O/U 48.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Bills are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games in November
  • Jaguars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog
  • Over is 8-1-1 in the Bills’ last 10 games on grass
  • Under is 6-1 in the Jaguars’ last 7 games as an underdog

Houston Texans vs. Miami Dolphins (-6.5, O/U 46.5)

  • Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win
  • Dolphins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against a team with a losing record
  • Under is 5-1 in the Texans’ last 6 games as a road underdog
  • Over is 4-0 in the Dolphins’ last 4 games on grass

Las Vegas Raiders (-3, O/U 46.5) vs. New York Giants

  • Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November
  • Giants are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record
  • Over is 4-0 in the Raiders’ last 4 games against a team with a losing record
  • Under is 7-0-1 in the Giants’ last 8 home games

Los Angeles Chargers (-2, O/U 50) vs. Philadelphia Eagles

  • Chargers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games in November
  • Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog
  • Over is 5-1 in the Chargers’ last 6 games as a road favorite
  • Under is 14-2 in the Eagles’ last 16 games in November

Green Bay Packers vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5, O/U 48)

  • Packers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall
  • Chiefs are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win
  • Under is 6-1 in the Packers’ last 7 games against a team with a losing record
  • Under is 5-1 in the Chiefs’ last 6 games following a straight up loss

Arizona Cardinals (-1.5, O/U 45) vs. San Francisco 49ers

  • Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall
  • Cardinals are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games in San Francisco
  • 49ers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games
  • Under is 10-2 in the Cardinals’ last 12 road games
  • Under is 7-3 in these teams’ last 10 meetings

Tennessee Titans vs. Los Angeles Rams (-7.5, O/U 54)

  • Titans are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games against a team with a winning home record
  • Rams are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record
  • Over is 10-1 in the Titans’ last 11 road games
  • Over is 6-1-1 in the Rams’ last 8 games after a straight up win

Chicago Bears vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-6, O/U 40)

  • Bears are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games against a team with a winning home record
  • Steelers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite
  • Under is 6-1 in the Bears’ last 7 games overall
  • Under is 6-1-1 in the Steelers’ last 8 games as a home favorite
I've been writing about sports for Lineups since the beginning of 2020 and on my own website since 2018. In May 2021, I graduated from the University of Michigan with a degree in sport management. As the United States embarks on an exciting journey towards the legalization of sports betting, I'm thrilled to have the opportunity to cover industry news, NFL and NBA odds, and more.

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