On Saturday night, two playoff first-timers will face off as Justin Herbert’s Chargers travel to play Trevor Lawrence’s Jaguars. In this article, I’ll build a Same Game Parlay (SGP) for that game. As always, don’t bet more than you’re willing to lose on these SGPs. While the payout can be great, the odds are high for a reason. Let’s get to work.
*Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook
NFL Wild Card Round Same Game Parlay – Chargers vs. Jaguars
I haven’t made any Christian Kirk plays official for this game at the time I’m writing this as I liked other angles more for this game. However, we can get some exposure to Kirk in the form of a Same Game Parlay.
The Chargers play man coverage at one of the highest rates in the NFL, and that suits Kirk very nicely. He ranks top 15 in target share, targets per route run, and yards per route run against man coverage this year.
Kirk averages 2.77 yards per route run (YPRR) against man coverage this year compared to 1.56 YPRR against zone coverage. Of course, that’s nothing new for Kirk – he’s always been excellent at using his agility and burst to explode off the line of scrimmage and beat press coverage.
In this matchup, Kirk could have some success. I wrote about how poor the Jaguars are at defending underneath passes in the player props page, and the Chargers aren’t much better in that area. LA has the fourth-worst pass defense by DVOA against the short middle area of the field.
Kirk leads the Jaguars with 64 targets in that area, and he has a 70.3% catch rate on those targets. He also averages 8.1 yards per reception on those throws as he has generated over 3 yards after the catch per reception in the short area of the field.
The Chargers have primarily used veteran Bryce Callahan in the slot this year, and it hasn’t been his best year as he’s allowing a 74.0% catch rate and a 92.9 passer rating in coverage. He also has a 19.3% missed tackle rate which is bad news against Kirk who forced seven missed tackles this season.
In the playoffs, teams tend to lean on their best players, and there’s no question that Kirk is that guy for the Jaguars. The franchise caught a ton of hate for the deal they gave him over the offseason, but Kirk leads the team by far with 55 first downs and has been a go-to target for Lawrence when he’s under pressure.
Kirk’s base receiving yardage prop is set at 57.5, and he’s been over that in nine of his 17 games this season. However, he also has 90+ yards in four of his last eight games, so when he goes over he tends to do so by a good bit.
Armed with that knowledge, let’s extract some value here. We can get +220 odds on Kirk to have 80+ yards in this game. Let’s pair that with Kirk’s touchdown prop at +150 odds. Finally, I’ll add the Jaguars at +3.5 on an alternate spread for -162 odds. I love the Jaguars as a teaser piece, and if Kirk is having this type of game, there’s a strong chance they win outright.
- Christian Kirk 80+ Receiving Yards (+220)
- Christian Kirk Anytime Touchdown (+150)
- Jaguars +3.5 (-162)
Full SGP Odds: +693 ($10 wins $69.39)
NFL Wild Card Round Same Game Parlay Bankroll Builder – Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
We had some mixed results with our bankroll builders earlier in the season, and I stopped including them, but I want to give it a shot in these articles for the playoffs. I’m testing these out for the Wild Card round to see if we can make some profit here, and I wouldn’t go overboard with tailing these as we’re still in the trial phase.
First, I’m taking the Jaguars +7.5 at -320 odds. Jacksonville is one of my favorite teaser legs of this entire Wild Card slate. Even if the Chargers win this game, I have a tough time seeing how they do so by more than one score. They had an average margin of victory of just 0.4 points this year, and Jacksonville won’t go quietly into the night at home.
This bankroll builder will be simple. We’re adding just one more leg to get back to even money. That leg will be Austin Ekeler 40+ rushing yards at -240 odds. Ekeler will likely see a larger workload in the playoffs after just a 50% rushing attempt share in the regular season as the Chargers likely hoped to keep him fresh for higher-stakes games.
In addition, the Jaguars allow the fourth-most plays per game in the NFL, which boosts the likelihood of more overall volume for Ekeler. While the Jaguars ranked sixth in rushing EPA allowed, they will be well aware of the Chargers’ pass-first tendencies and likely play with a different approach this week. Therefore, Ekeler should have some opportunities to run against a lighter box. He has 40+ rushing yards in four of his last five games.
Full Bankroll Builder on FanDuel:
- Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 (-320)
- Austin Ekeler 40+ rushing yards (-240)
Full Bankroll Builder Odds: +105 ($10 wins $10.57)