NFL Wild Card Round Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1/16/23): SGP Picks + Same Game Parlay Strategy
For the second time this season, we get a primetime matchup between the Dallas Cowboys (12-5) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9). The Bucs beat the Cowboys 19-3 on Sunday Night Football in week one. Now they square off on Monday Night Football to wrap up Wild Card Weekend.
In this article, I’ll build a Same Game Parlay (SGP) for this Cowboys vs. Bucs matchup. For those new to the world of sports betting, SGPs allow you to combine multiple wagers across the spread, total, and player prop markets to get an even better payout. You need to hit on every bet in order to win the parlay, so coming up with a winning combination is an exercise in balancing risk and reward.
As always, never bet more than you can afford to lose. While the payout for hitting a SGP can be great, the odds are high for a reason.
*Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
NFL Wild Card Round Same Game Parlay – Cowboys vs. Buccaneers
A good strategy for building a solid Same Game Parlay is to look for a combination of bets that are closely correlated. For this game, I am going to start by picking 45+ passing attempts for Tom Brady at +135 odds.
As I wrote in our player props article for this game, I expect the Bucs to rely heavily on Tom Brady and the passing attack in this game. Brady led the league with a career-high 733 pass attempts this season as the Bucs’ rushing offense struggled behind a banged up offensive line. He threw at least 45 passes eight times this season, including four of his last five meaningful games (ignoring week 18).
If Brady is dropping back that many times, he is going to be getting rid of the ball quickly to neutralize the Cowboys’ pass rush. That means there will be many opportunities for checkdown passes to his running backs, which has been a staple of Brady’s game his whole career. Both Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White should benefit from that, so I am adding 2+ receptions by Fournette to my SGP with -3000 odds.
Fournette had at least two catches in all 14 games he started and finished this season. He also had at least four catches four catches in 11 of those games, including five in a row from weeks 13-17. I considered being a bit more aggressive with this pick and choose 4+ receptions at -240 to boost my overall odds, but decided to play it a bit conservative.
The riskiest leg of my parlay is Rachaad White under 34.5 rushing yards at +115. Here is where I am leaning into the correlation between Brady’s passing volume and the Bucs’ low rushing volume.
White averaged just 3.7 yards per carry this season, so if his average holds he would need at least 10 carries to surpass 34 yards. But if the Bucs rely mainly on the pass, and if “Playoff Lenny” out-snaps White as I expect he will, then White is unlikely to see 10+ carries.
Finally I am picking the Bucs to cover a spread of +3.5, which brings my overall SGP odds from +330 to +900. The line on this game is +2.5 (-105), but I am giving the extra 30 points of juice to buy this line through the key number of 3.
I expect this game to come down to the wire and it could ultimately be decided by a last-minute field goal, so that is a small price to pay to get a little protection on a 3-point margin. If you want to be a little safer, you could buy a touchdown’s worth of protection at +7.5 (-265) for total SGP odds of +675.
Here is a summary of our juicy four-leg Same Game Parlay.
- Tom Brady 45+ passing attempts (+135)
- Leonard Fournette 2+ receptions (-3000)
- Rachaad White under 34.5 rushing yards (+115)
- Buccaneers +3.5 (-135)
Full SGP Odds: +900 ($10 wins $100)
