NHL MVP Odds 2022
Once again, Connor McDavid headlines the NHL MVP odds 2022 for the season. Edmonton’s golden child is hunting for his fifth All-Star appearance and third Hart Memorial Trophy. Get up-to-date NHL Odds during the season.
At , however, McDavid is probably not the best bet to win the trophy this year. That should lie with someone a little further down the list. Perhaps Nathan McKinnon, our Auston Matthews, could cash at slightly higher odds ( for MacKinnon; for Matthews), or maybe one of our old friends Sidney Crosby or Alex Ovechkin, is a good bet at 35/1.
Let’s dig into the full MVP odds list and see if there are any superstars that pop out at us.
NHL MVP Odds 2022
Hart Memorial Trophy History Lessons
Forwards own this trophy. No non-forward has won the award in the last 15 years except for Carey Price in 2014-15. Andrei Vasilevskiy is talented enough to repeat Price’s season, but I would probably avoid him at 15/1 odds.
The last time a player won the Hart Trophy when their team didn’t make the playoffs was 1988 when Mario Lemieux won. It’s also only happened four times in the history of the NHL. Luckily, most of the players at the top of the odds market are on decent teams, but this is something to keep in mind when making futures bets.
11 of the last 15 Hart Trophy-winners have come from the Eastern Conference.
McDavid is gunning for back-to-back Hart Trophies. The last guy to do that was Ovechkin in 2008 and 2009. Wayne Gretzky also won the award back-to-back a few times – eight times in a row between 1980 and 1987.
Connor McDavid : I wouldn’t recommend betting McDavid here. For a few reasons:
First, Edmonton’s offensive additions should take some of the goal-scoring pressure off McDavid. While that’s good for Edmonton, it makes me wonder if McDavid’s personal stats will take a hit.
Plus, let’s say the Oilers new additions don’t work out; there’s a legit chance the Oilers struggle this year. If Edmonton were to perform worse than last season, that would take some of the value out of McDavid’s Hart hopes.
Additionally, +350 is just too short of a line to bet for MVP. Unless he’s on track to have the most dominant season of his career, there’s no value with McDavid.
Nathan MacKinnon : MacKinnon is the leader of the most dangerous offensive unit in the NHL. The Avalanche led the league in goals scored last season, and MacKinnon helped with 45 assists and 20 goals of his own.
MacKinnon’s shot attempts took a hit last season after leading all centers in 2018-19 and 2019-20, but that’s probably in response to Nazem Kadri picking up significantly more shots in his second year.
Either way, it probably doesn’t matter. MacKinnon will run the show in Colorado and will rack up a ton of points doing it. The odds are short at +550, but I think MacKinnon’s a better bet than McDavid.
Auston Matthews : After leading the league in goals last season, Matthews should be geared up for another massive season.
Toronto lost Zach Hyman and his 15 goals from last season to Edmonton, but they sacrificed him for more broad-based positional depth. The secondary scoring should vastly improve, and it might open more first line opportunities for Matthews.
I’m quite high on Matthews and excited to see what he brings this year. He’s +400 to lead the league in goals again, and I wouldn’t feel bad about that play despite the short odds.
Nikita Kucherov : Kucherov is an interesting play. After missing the entire regular season, Kucherov dominated the playoffs. He recorded a team-high 32 points in the playoff run, including 15 assists on the power play.
The Lightning finished with the third-best power play unit in the NHL last season (32.35 PP%), which means Kucherov will get a lot of high-quality opportunities. Extrapolate his playoff performance over a whole season, and you get an enticing picture at +800.
Top Value Plays
Mark Stone : I’m very high on the Golden Knights season, but their success will be built around their defense. Vegas is a bit limited in the scoring department.
Except for Stone, who led the team in points last season (61) and finished second in goals (21). Stone will still have Max Pacioretty on the other side of the ice, and Pacioretty is sure to put more than a few in the net, but Vegas is Stone’s team.
As such, Stone will have plenty of opportunities to record insane statistics. If Stone has another big year in the points department and the Knights end up being as good as projected, being a Hart Trophy finalist isn’t out of the question. I like Stone at 25/1 and will sprinkle a few dollars on that.
Mathew Barzal +1800: Similarly to the Golden Knights, I’m high on the Islanders season. They’re my top value play to win the Stanley Cup this season (+1800), and they’re going to be led by Barzal.
Again, similarly to the Golden Knights, the Islanders defense will lead the way. That’s especially true with the departures of Andrew Ladd, Nick Leddy, and Jordan Eberle. Which means they’re going to lean on Barzal even more in the offensive department.
The Islanders finished second in the NHL in goals allowed last season and paced the league in goal differential. The Islanders are going to be an elite NHL team, and Barzal will have a lot of opportunities on their front lines.
That’s an elite combination that provides plenty of value if you’re a Hart Memorial Trophy bettor.
The Hall of Fame Longshots
Is it worth taking a bet on Sidney Crosby or Alex Ovechkin ?
It probably is for Crosby, who recorded 61 points in 55 games last year and finished fourth in Hart Trophy voting.
For Ovechkin, much less so. While he played only 45 games last year, and his numbers are sure to jump with the full season, he was a resounding -7 in the plus-minus department. It’s hard to imagine him making such a huge year-over-year jump.