NRFI, YRFI For MLB Matchups On Thursday, May 1
We have the NRFI and YRFI odds for all 12 MLB matchups on Thursday, May 1.
Click on the odds below to place a bet.
Contents
NRFI and YRFI odds for May 1
| Game | YRFI | NRFI |
|---|---|---|
| Cubs at Pirates | ||
| Cardinals at Reds | ||
| Royals at Rays | ||
| Diamondbacks at Mets | ||
| Twins at Guardians | ||
| Brewers at White Sox | ||
| Athletics at Rangers | ||
| Nationals at Phillies | ||
| Red Sox at Blue Jays | ||
| Tigers at Angels | ||
| Rockeis at Giants |
Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays, 1:10 p.m. Eastern (NRFI)
The Royals and Rays cap a three-game series with a matinee clash that has a chance to turn into a pitcher’s duel, considering Seth Lugo and Shane Baz will face off.
Lugo has followed up a career-best 2024 season with a strong start to the new campaign, compiling a 3.08 ERA and 1.08 WHIP across his first six starts, allowing three earned runs or fewer in five of those outings. The veteran right-hander is coming off his best showing of the season as well, having just blanked the Astros over eight innings while recording a season-high 8 Ks.
Lugo does have some underlying metrics that suggest he’s been lucky not to have run into more trouble, but his work in the first inning doesn’t really qualify as such. He boasts an unblemished ERA through six opening frames while holding opposing batters to an .056 average and allowing just a single total base.
Baz has a 3-0 record, 2.45 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over his first five starts, and that’s even factoring in a clunker of an outing against the Yankees two starts ago. The fireballing right-hander also boasts an elite 31.6% strikeout rate and a modest 0.9 HR/9, has already authored a pair of shutouts (six and seven innings), and has also conceded two earned runs or fewer in another pair of trips to the mound.
Baz has given up two earned runs in his first five opening frames, but both came in that aforementioned start against New York. He’s still allowing just a .177 average to the 18 batters he’s faced in the first inning this season, and despite scoring a pair of first-inning runs Wednesday, KC is still averaging a modest 0.53 runs per first inning per road game.
Athletics at Texas Rangers, 2:35 p.m. Eastern (YRFI)
The Athletics’ Jeffrey Springs is set for another chapter in what has been a disappointing season so far when he faces an inconsistent Rangers squad Thursday afternoon. Texas compiled 15 runs two games ago before seeing a significant downturn Tuesday, scoring a single run in what was only its fifth home loss in 16 games.
Nevertheless, there’s some statistical support for the Rangers, at minimum, to break through for at least one early run Thursday. The projected top four hitters in Texas’ lineup — Kevin Pillar, Kyle Higashioka, Wyatt Langford and Jonah Heim — are all hitting left-handers very well as evidenced by their respective .308, .304, .261 and .381 averages in that split. And, while Langford’s average is the lowest of that group, he makes up for it with a .958 OPS.
Springs is also performing below his usual standards, posting a 7.66 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, 6.0 BB/9 and 2.0 HR/9 in the 22.1 innings covering his five starts since his six-inning blanking of the Mariners to open his season. The southpaw has had a particularly difficult time in the first inning, when he’s surrendered a 16.50 ERA, .400 average, 1.393 OPS and 26 total bases. The Rangers have also been effective against left-handers at home in April with a .279 average, .724 OPS and .323 wOBA.
Additionally, while Texas starter Tyler Mahle has been highly effective in the first month of the season, it’s worth noting for YRFI purposes that he’s facing an Athletics squad that posted a .265 average, .762 OPS and .334 wOBA against right-handers on the road in April and that has a very dangerous foursome atop the order in Lawrence Butler, Jacob Wilson, Tyler Soderstrom and Brent Rooker.
Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays – 7:07 pm Eastern – (YRFI)
A pair of potent lineups facing off with a couple of inconsistent starters always make for key ingredients of the YRFI recipe, and Thursday night’s Red Sox-Blue Jays series finale fits the bill on those fronts. Tanner Houck and Jose Berrios, two undeniably accomplished righties that have nevertheless had their hiccups early this season, face off against opponents they’re well familiar with.
Houck is carrying an 0-2 record, 7.58 ERA, 1.69 WHIP and 1.8 HR/9 across his six starts. Granted, an absolute nightmare of an outing against the Rays in which he yielded 12 runs (11 earned) on 10 hits over 2.1 innings on April 14 is certainly playing a big role in the bloated metrics, but Houck has given up four earned runs apiece in two other outings, has seen a drop in strikeout rate to under 20.0% (17.9), and has a .360 xwOBA and 5.06 xERA.
On the other side, Berrios is surrendering a career-high 10.9% barrel rate, has a slightly higher xERA (4.52) than his base figure (4.24) and is sporting his second-highest WHIP (1.41) since his rookie 2016 campaign. He’s had some issues at home as well, as evidenced by a 5.94 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and 2.2 HR/9 there in 16.2 innings.
Houck has also forged a 13.50 ERA and .483 BAA in his six first innings, and only one of the nine runs he’s allowed in the opening frame this season came in that aforementioned start versus Tampa Bay. The right-hander will also face a top of the Blue Jays order consisting of Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero and Anthony Santander – a trio that is a combined 15-for-47 (.319) with two doubles, four walks and seven RBI in their careers against him.
Berrios will have his own challenges against Jarren Duran (.500 average in 18 career PAs against him), Rafael Devers and Alex Bregman at the top of Boston’s order, and when also considering the combined 36-26 record YRFI bets have in these two teams’ games – including an 11-4 mark in Toronto’s home tilts – the case for at least one run being scored early is clear.
