After giving an underwhelming defensive performance in game two, the Nuggets ramped up the pressure and cruised to a game three victory. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray were practically unstoppable, both finishing the contest with a triple double. They outplayed the Heat starting five as a whole and will look to continue their dominance in an attempt to steal another one on the road before potentially finishing the series at home in game five. Ahead of this pivotal game 4, let’s dive into some best bets for both teams.
Nuggets vs Heat SGP Best Bets
With the NBA action dwindling down to a game a night with the start of the NBA Finals, let’s dive deep into the matchup and muster up a SGP of how I think the game script will go. The pressure is building up for the Heat to round back into their elite shooting form as their defense has been unable to slow down the Nuggets with Jokic and Murray running the show. With the regression monster in full effect, look for the Nuggets stars to take center stage in a crucial game four.
Leg 1: Denver Nuggets Moneyline
This has been a staple of my SGP’s for the first three games of the series and I am bringing it back once again after a dominant game three performance. Playing on the road proved to be no issue for the Nuggets in an attempt to round back into championship form as they thoroughly handled the Heat from the opening tip.
While I’m not thrilled that a majority of the Nuggets success had to stem from their star duo of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, it’s comforting to know that they are capable of carrying a victory on their own shoulders. This just gives us more room for their secondary players to make their mark, making their offense nearly unstoppable should the shots start to fall.
While the offense has struggled to find any sort of consistency against the Heat’s defensive coverage, it was their own defense that played a major impact. After looking flat in game two, the Nuggets came out with energy and did an excellent job at closing the gap on switches. This smothered Miami’s quality of looks at the rim, forcing them into ill-advised attempts from the perimeter.
Leg 2: First Half Under 106.5
I am by no means a trend type of bettor, but some trends are hard to ignore. As pointed out by Action Network’s Chris Raybon, NBA Finals Game Four 1H unders have gone 14-4 since first tracked in 2005, including 10-0 when the home team is down 1-2.
Both teams are in a good position to keep this under the number as well as both have struggled to sustain a consistent scoring pace. Especially on Denver’s side, playing well into the shot clock as they try to get a clean look against Miami’s zone.
With Miami’s shot making regressing hard back to their regular season average and the Nuggets still searching for any consistency from beyond the arc, I fully expect another sluggish first half as both offenses look to get in their groove.
Leg 3: Jimmy Butler u1.5 Threes
Even with an uptick in attempts in game three per his average from the perimeter throughout the season, Butler has once again failed to clear this number. I was a bit surprised when a majority of books hung his number at 1.5 going into game four, yet to our gain as I am once again adding this to my SGP.
We saw shades of a vintage playoff Jimmy Butler as he relentlessly attacked the Denver interior, leading the flow of the offense through him as he picked apart the gaps in Denver’s defense. With the teams shot making regressing back towards the mean, this forces the likes of Butler and Bam to take control with high quality looks near the rim.
Look for Butler to stray more away from the arc in game four as his shot making forces defensive attention away from the perimeter for his shooters to exploit.
Leg 4: Jamal Murray o7.5 Assists
With their perimeter shooting failing to find any sort of consistency from deep, the Nuggets have simplified their offense by having Murray and Jokic run a two-man game. The Heat have yet to find any sort of success in slowing down a crashing Jokic, racking up Murray’s assists as Jokic shoots over the top of the undersized Heat interior defense.
SGP Betting Card
- Denver Nuggets Moneyline
- First Half Total u106.5
- Jimmy Butler u1.5 Threes
- Jamal Murray o7.5 Assists
Full SGP Odds: +550 ($10 wins $55.00)