Oakland Raiders vs Green Bay Packers (10/15/19): NFL Betting Picks, Lines
Contents
The Setup
The Oakland Raiders, who are suddenly in the AFC playoff conversation, have yet another tough road test in Week 7, as they visit the Green Bay Packers.
The Raiders are in the midst of the toughest schedule stretch in the NFL this season. This is their fourth straight game away from Oakland (they were the host team in London against the Chicago Bears in Week 5). It is also their fourth straight game that starts at 10 a.m. on the west coast, which can be challenging from player’s internal body clocks. The challenge doesn’t end in Green Bay, either. The road Raiders then play at the Houston Texans before finally returning to Oakland to host the Detroit Lions on Nov. 3. In total, the Raiders will go seven weeks between playing games in Oakland. Brutal.
But Jon Gruden’s crew is weathering the storm nicely thus far. Oakland won at the Indianapolis Colts and then beat the Bears, and former Raiders’ pass-rush star Khalil Mack, in England to improve to 3-2 and squeeze their way into playoff contention.
Things looked dire in Oakland after the Raiders were hammered by the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 2 and then by the Minnesota Vikings the next week.
But life changes fast in the NFL (just look at the Dallas Cowboys, Los Angeles Rams and the Kansas City Chiefs for proof) and the Raiders are alive. The Packers, of course, present a big challenge, though. Green Bay is 5-1 and playing at Lambeau Field is never easy.
Let’s look at some key betting elements to the game. Lines are based on a sampling of several sportsbooks:
Point Spread
The line: Green Bay by 6.5 points.
Why: The Packers are hot and they are at home. The home team, of course, gets three points, so oddsmakers are saying the Packers are 3.5 better than the Raiders. If this game was a few weeks ago, the point spread would likely be in the 8-9-point range. But Oakland has shown it can not only compete, but win on the road.
My lean: This is tough. I truly don’t now how to read the Raiders. They’ve been so unpredictable this season. But I can see this game being similar to the Packers’ victory over the Detroit Lions on Monday night. Green Bay was a 6-point favorite and won, 23-22, on a last-second field goal by Mason Crosby. So, I lean taking the Raiders and the points.
Over/Under
The line: 46.5 points.
Why: Again, this line is very similar to the Packers-Lions game. The total in that NFC North matchup was 47 at most sportsbooks. So, oddsmakers see a similar matchup both on the point spread and on the total.
My lean: I’d go over. The Raiders have played just one top-level quarterback thus far this season – Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs. He gutted them. Aaron Rodgers can have similar success. The Packers’ defense is strong, but if the Raiders, fueled by first-round pick Josh Jacobs, can get a ground attack going, they should be able to score some points as well. My prediction for this game is Green Bay 27, Oakland 21. There’s not a lot of room here, but I lean the over.
Moneyline
Green Bay (-286), Oakland (+225)
Why: These prices are in line in a game when there’s a touchdown favorite.
My lean: I expect the Packers to do win. However, at +225, Oakland is a bet worth considering. The value is very strong. Again, the Raiders are coming off two straight road victories and a bye week. They are confident. The Packers are coming off an emotional division win and Rodgers’ receivers are banged up. This is not a certain Green Bay win. So, while I don’t expect Oakland to win, a +225 price is a decent lottery ticket to take a flier on.
Parlay
Raiders (+6.5) & Over 46.5 pts
Why: I’m backing the Raiders covering and the over, so this is an eye two-bet parlay to back. It’s a great price. This is the point spread, total combination that hit in the Packers-Lions game and, again, I can see a similar situation unfolding in this game.
Over 53.5 (+195)
Why: I can see this game going way over the 46.5 total. This is a good price to ride a hunch. The Green Bay offense is starting to click in new coach Matt LaFleur’s system. Two of the Packers past three games surpassed the 53.5 mark. Again, these bets are hunches and at good prices, they are worth considering.
