The Green Bay Packers face the Atlanta Falcons this Sunday (9/17/23). Find the latest Packers Vs. Falcons betting odds below as well as best bets and a full preview of the game. Our best bet for the game is the Falcons +2.5 at home.
Green Bay Packers Vs. Atlanta Falcons Prediction & Best Bet
The Falcons -3.5 was one of my favorite plays on the board last week, and I saw everything I wanted to see from Atlanta. The run game was outstanding as Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier combined for 131 yards on 25 carries (5.2 YPC). Desmond Ridder didn’t do much, but he didn’t have to as the Falcons leaned on their elite run game.
The Atlanta defense also looked much improved from last year. New addition Jessie Bates III picked off Bryce Young twice and forced a fumble, David Onyemata had five pressures, and Kaden Ellis tied for the team lead with seven tackles. New defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen’s unit was dominant, holding Carolina to just ten points.
Green Bay had an impressive win of their own, beating the Bears yet again, but I still have Atlanta power rated ahead of them. The Packers have an incredibly inexperienced offense as Jordan Love is very green and has a skill position group almost entirely made up of first or second-year players. Aaron Jones is the exception, but he left last week early with an injury.
Love’s final stat line of 245 yards and three touchdowns looked impressive, but his 63% adjusted completion rate was the third-worst in the league. Chicago didn’t punish Love for his inaccuracy, but I expect Atlanta to take advantage after how their defense looked against Young in Week 1.
Ultimately, my handicap in this game hinges on my preseason opinions. I had the Falcons as the better team going into the year, and I haven’t seen anything to push me off that opinion. With the plus money value here, I’m going with the home Falcons to cover the spread. You can also put Atlanta in a teaser up to +8.5 in this game.
Green Bay Packers Vs. Atlanta Falcons Prediction & Best Bet: Falcons +2.5
Green Bay Packers Vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Odds
The spread for this game has bounced around quite a bit. The Falcons were favored by 1.5 points prior to Week 1, but after both teams won, the spread reopened with the Packers as short road favorites. The spread now sits between -1.5 and -2.5 in favor of Green Bay. My power ratings make the spread Falcons -1.7, and this is my biggest edge of the week. The total for this game sits at 40.5 points universally.
Green Bay Packers Vs. Atlanta Falcons Key Injuries
The Falcons got through Week 1 unscathed as far as injuries go, and they might get all-purpose utility player Cordarelle Patterson back in the lineup this week after he missed the opening game. Keep an eye out for his practice reports.
Green Bay could get Christian Watson back for this game after he missed Week 1, but Aaron Jones is the big name to watch after the running back left last week’s game early with a foot injury. His status is very important for this offense.
Green Bay Packers Vs. Atlanta Falcons Key Matchups
While the play of starting quarterbacks Jordan Love and Desmond Ridder will help determine the outcome of this game, both the Packers and Falcons have done a good job of insulating their young passers. Let’s take a look at some crucial matchups that will help determine how effective those quarterbacks can be.
Kaleb McGary Vs. Rashan Gary
The Falcons gave right tackle Kaleb McGary a three-year contract over the offseason, and he struggled in the team’s first game – his 43.9 PFF pass-blocking grade ranked 62nd out of 66 qualified tackles. In his defense, he was blocking against Pro Bowl edge Brian Burns, but things don’t get much easier this week.
Packers fans were thrilled to have Rashan Gary back in the lineup after a torn ACL ended his season prematurely in 2022. Gary immediately came through with five pressures on just 10 pass-rush snaps, making a huge impact despite his snap count. I’m sure the Packers’ coaches will be itching to let him loose this week.
— Daire Carragher (@DaireCarragher) September 11, 2023
Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier Vs. the Packers’ run defense
The Falcons won in Week 1 on the back of their tremendous backfield tandem in Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. They combined for 177 yards from scrimmage and three total touchdowns and will continue to be the focal point of the team’s offense for the foreseeable future.
The Packers struggled to defend the run in 2022, ranking 31st in both rushing EPA and success rate allowed. Their run defense fared well in Week 1, but the Bears had to abandon the run as they were trailing. If the Falcons can stay in a neutral game script, expect a heavy dosage of the run game against a run defense that got gouged last year.
Christian Watson Vs. A.J. Terrell
The Packers would love to see Christian Watson, their presumed WR1, return this week. When Jordan Love entered the game for an injured Aaron Rodgers against the Eagles last season, he threw a pass over the middle that Watson took to the house. Watson has game-breaking speed and explosiveness.
A.J. Terrell is coming off a down year after a dominant All Pro campaign, but I’m expecting him to bounce back with the addition of veteran talent on the defense. Having an improved pass rush will help him tremendously. Terrell will likely see a lot of Watson in this game, and as a strong athletic tester himself, it would be fascinating to see those two square off.
#22 for the Eagles runs a 4.38 40-yard dash.
Christian Watson is so silly. pic.twitter.com/Pjcx2SGNhN
— Daire Carragher (@DaireCarragher) November 28, 2022
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