Get Patrick Mahomes player prop picks & odds for the (1/29/23) matchup.
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All of the talk this week has understandably surrounded Patrick Mahomes and his high ankle sprain. Amateur doctors all over Twitter have dissected every second of available footage of Mahomes from press conferences and practices. However, none of that matters. Game conditions where Mahomes is getting hit by defenders will prove very different.
Still, Mahomes should be ready. He’s a proven champion and a consummate professional, and I have no doubt that every available second this week will be spent by the Chiefs on finding ways to maximize his potential productivity this week. It’s the AFC Championship – it’s all on the table here.
In this article, I’ll take a look at some potential player props for Patrick Mahomes and try to find some value on the board. You can check out our other articles and our YouTube channel for full coverage of both conference championship games. Also, be sure to use the player prop search tool above to find the best available odds. Let’s get to work.
Patrick Mahomes Over 282.5 Passing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Early in the week, the under on Patrick Mahomes passing yards was a surprising public favorite. For a player who the general NFL population adores, you’d expect the over to be a popular bet, but the opposite has been the case so far as speculation ran rampant surrounding Mahomes’s high-ankle sprain.
As I sit here writing this article, it was just announced that Mahomes won’t be on the injury report this week. It’s highly improbable that he’s actually at 100% health, but he’ll be on the field regardless. As a result of the positive news surrounding Mahomes, the over on this prop has been steamed up.
I played the over here at 279.5, and I’d still play it at 282.5. The Bengals have been elite against the run with D.J. Reader in the game – they rank 5th in run defense EPA with him – and the Chiefs will need to be pass-heavy as a result. Expect lots of short-area, quick-fire passes for Mahomes with his mobility somewhat compromised.
Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 Interceptions (-105 BetMGM)
With the expected heavy passing volume that I wrote about above comes more potential for an interception. Patrick Mahomes is far from a mistake-prone quarterback, but he did have two interceptions against the Bengals in the AFC Championship last year.
While he didn’t have an interception in the other two games against Cincy over the past two seasons, he does have five turnover-worthy plays over that span. The Bengals could force him into some tight-window throws this week after coming through with an elite 66.7% perfectly covered play rate last week.
Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has done a masterful job of presenting Mahomes with different looks in coverage schemes, and it could force him into an interception here. That will only be more true if the Chiefs are trailing in this game like I believe could be the case.