Get Patrick Mahomes player prop picks & odds for the (2/12/23) matchup.
Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Search Tool
Search any NFL player in the search box to bring up their
NFL player props
Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Picks
It’s all about Patrick Mahomes. It’s always been all about Patrick Mahomes. The former MVP and Super Bowl MVP is back on the biggest stage in the sport, and regardless of any high-ankle sprain or injuries in his receiving corps, it’s foolish to think he won’t deliver. He owns moments just like this.
In this article, I’ll take a look at the top player prop markets for Mahomes. We’ll have a ton of great player prop and various betting content on the site and on the Lineups YouTube page. As always, use the player prop search tool above to compare odds from different sportsbooks. Let’s get to work.
Patrick Mahomes Over/Under 294.5 Passing Yards
Patrick Mahomes’s performance last week was incredible. He played through a high-ankle sprain while his top target Travis Kelce played through a back injury. Three of his top wide receivers – JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman, and Kadarius Toney – went out with injuries. He faced a Lou Anarumo defense that has given him fits in the past.
None of it mattered. He threw for 326 yards and two touchdowns while putting together an EPA performance that would rank fifth among all qualified quarterbacks in the regular season. With two weeks for those injuries to be rectified, he should be in even better shape entering this game.
The Eagles have an excellent defense that ranked first in both drop back EPA and pass defense DVOA. However, Mahomes torched them in their Week 4 matchup in 2021 as he completed 24 of 30 passes for 278 yards and five touchdowns with a passer rating of 131.
Mahomes went over this passing yardage mark in 11 of his 19 games this season, and while I believe he can and will do it again, it’s not my favorite way to get exposure to his success. I’d rather just play his Super Bowl MVP prop and the Chiefs ML. However, this should be doable for him against any opponent.
The Verdict: Lean Over 294.5 Passing Yards
Patrick Mahomes Over/Under 38.5 Passing Attempts and 25.5 Passing Completions
With these two props, we’re looking at betting on Mahomes’s volume in this game. These props are right in line with where Mahomes was at for the full season as he averaged 38.5 passing attempts (fifth-most) and 25.8 passing completions (fourth-most) per game.
The outcomes of these volume-based props will come down to the game script to a degree. Will the Eagles be grinding clock with their run-oriented offense? Will the Eagles build a lead like they have all year and force the Chiefs to play from behind? Will the Chiefs build a lead early and be able to lean on their run game?
Depending on how you feel about how this game winds up, it will dictate your opinion on these props. Ultimately, I don’t see value in either of these numbers, and I’ll be looking for other opportunities with Mahomes.
The Verdict: Pass
Patrick Mahomes Over/Under 0.5 Interceptions Thrown
Mahomes hasn’t had an interception since Week 17 when he faced the Broncos, and the Broncos are responsible for four of his 12 interceptions all season. Denver ranked just 14th in takeaways at 1.4 per game this season, but they excelled against Mahomes.
When the Chiefs faced the Eagles in that 2021 matchup, Patrick Mahomes threw an interception. The Eagles have had an opportunistic defense all season with 17 interceptions this year, tied for the fourth-most in the NFL. C.J. Gardner-Johnson is tied for the league lead with six picks.
Mahomes will be throwing the ball in this game, and with a 2.2% turnover-worthy play rate, he’s projected to have 0.85 turnover-worthy plays based on his passing attempts prop of 38.5. Will that be enough for the Eagles to find a pick? Maybe, but I’m not willing to pay the current price to find out.
The Verdict: Lean Over 0.5 Interceptions
Patrick Mahomes 18.5 Rushing Yards
Largely due to the uncertainty surrounding Patrick Mahomes’s high-ankle sprain, there wasn’t a prop for his rushing yardage available last week. He finished with just eight rushing yards, and somewhat eerily, he has exactly eight rushing yards in four of his last five games.
Mahomes is certainly capable of running the ball, and there was a stretch of eight out of nine games earlier this year where he went over this number. The Eagles have been vulnerable against quarterbacks, allowing Davis Webb (41), Dak Prescott (41), Ryan Tannehill (34), Davis Mills (18), Kenny Pickett (37), and Kyler Muray (42) to go over their rushing yardage prop.
The biggest concern with a prop like this is the end game. If you believe that the Chiefs will win this game like I do, you could get screwed over at the end of the game by kneel-downs from Patrick Mahomes. In fact, that’s exactly what happened with Mahomes in Super Bowl LIV.
The Verdict: Lean Over 18.5 Rushing Yards
- Super Bowl 57 Odds
- Patrick Mahomes Player Props
- Jalen Hurts Player Props
- A.J. Brown Player Props
- JuJu Smith Schuster Player Props
- Miles Sanders Player Props
- Devonta Smith Player Props
- Isiah Pacheco Player Props
- Jerick McKinnon Player Props
- Travis Kelce Player Props
- MVS Player Props
- Super Bowl 57 Player Props
- A.J. Brown MVP Odds
- Jalen Hurts MVP Odds
- Isaiah Pacheco MVP Odds
- Miles Sanders MVP Odds
- MVS MVP Odds
- Patrick Mahomes MVP Odds
- Devonta Smith MVP Odds
- Haason Reddick MVP Odds
- Jerick McKinnon MVP Odds
- Dallas Goedert MVP Odds
- Travis Kelce MVP Odds
- JuJu Smith-Schuster MVP Odds
- Chris Jones MVP Odds
- First Touchdown Scorer Picks
- Anytime Touchdown Picks
- National Anthem Odds
- Gatorade Odds
- Coin Toss Odds
- How To Bet On Super Bowl