New England Patriots vs. Dallas Cowboys NFL Player Props & Picks (10/1/23)

The New England Patriots battle the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday afternoon (10/1/23). Get Patriots vs. Cowboys player props odds, predictions, and best bets, including Jake Ferguson,

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New England Patriots vs. Dallas Cowboys Player Prop Picks

Which players will provide a needed boost? Check out below for Patriots vs. Cowboys best bets.

Jake Ferguson First Touchdown (+1500 DK)

Jake Ferguson paces the entire NFL in inside the ten-yard-line targets and red zone targets. In addition, he ranks eighth in PFF’s expected reception touchdowns. Dak Prescott loves to find his tight ends (ex: Jason Witten and Dalton Schultz), so Ferguson appears next in line to benefit.

Regardless of matchup, it’s an incredible line based on the odds, as Ferguson must only score the first touchdown about six percent of the time. However, Dallas’ dominant defense faces a New England offense that ranks 23rd in Expected Points Added per Play. Bill Belichick also loves to take away top options, and they have the cornerbacks to accomplish this goal. Therefore, CeeDee Lamb may be less of a threat than usual. Finally, the Patriots are allowing 3.6 yards per rush, so Tony Pollard could find it difficult to punch the ball into the end zone.

Dak Prescott Over 0.5 Interceptions (+105 BetRivers)

Prescott led the NFL in interceptions last season at fifteen, and he threw ten during the previous season. Turnovers have haunted Prescott recently, although he’s escaped that issue to start this year by committing only one interception. Unfortunately for Prescott, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is a defensive mastermind who routinely confuses opposing quarterbacks with disguised coverage. New England’s secondary is oozing talent, especially rookie Christian Gonzales. Therefore, it’s unlikely that Prescott can navigate this difficult matchup without throwing a pick.

For the bet to have a positive expected value, Prescott must notch an interception about 48 percent of the time.

Mac Jones Over 7.5 Rush Yards (-114 FD)

Mac Jones struggled when the pocket collapsed last season, but he’s improved his awareness. Jones is 8th in pressure to sack ratio per PFF after ranking 29th last season. Because he is escaping the pocket more frequently, he’s able to pick up yards on scrambles. To start the season, Jones has recorded 15, 25, and 13 rushing yards – he only had four games over ten yards during all of last season. Dallas’ edge rushers should wreak havoc against New England, so Jones will have to run for his life a decent amount. Look for those sacks to turn into rushing yards. Jones must hit eight yards about 53 percent of the time.

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2021-22 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs about analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions and NBA Analysis Network.

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