New England Patriots vs. Dallas Cowboys kicks off this Sunday at 4:25pm EST in Dallas as a home game for the Cowboys. The Patriots are currently a +6.5 underdog and +243 on the moneyline while the total is set at 43.5. Read on for more New England Patriots vs. Dallas Cowboys best bets and predictions as points will come at a sluggish pace.
New England Patriots vs. Dallas Cowboys Prediction & Best Bet
In the NFL, anyone is capable of beating anyone on any given day. That saying was put on full display when the Arizona Cardinals shocked the nation and comfortably beat the Cowboys 28-16. Regarded as one of the worst teams in the NFL, they generated the upset as a two-score underdog.
As for the Patriots, they did exactly what they needed to do to secure the win over the Jets and that was to make Zach Wilson’s life under center as painful as it gets. While they didn’t generate any turnovers, the Patriots defense routinely forced the Jets offense off the field by stalling out their drives through a blend of pressure and disguises in the secondary.
With that said, both units are bringing in an elite defense and will be on full display with each other’s offenses in flux. The Cowboys have cruised with an above average rank in Off EPA, their conservative play calling has held them back. Bill Belichick is more than capable of capitalizing on that, forcing Dak Prescott to throw into tight windows while successfully rushing four and dropping back seven.
The Patriots disguise coverage can force anyone into hiccups and make a disastrous mistake while under pressure. Knowing this, we may see a heavier dose of the run in an attempt to force the Patriots defense to stack the box which bleeds time off the clock and plays towards the under. Safe quick outs to their playmakers in the open field against a Patriots secondary that keeps plays in front of them will keep drives alive while taking time off the clock.
On the other end, the Cowboys defense heavily relies on their ability to bulldoze opposing offensive lines and send relentless pressure to opposing quarterbacks. They abused the Jets near league worst offensive line and now get another weak line on deck with the Patriots grading out in the bottom ten in PFF grade. With Mac Jones already serving as a middling quarterback, expect plenty of early outs while Jones runs for his life under pressure and tries to make throws while on the run.
New England Patriots vs. Dallas Cowboys Prediction & Best Bet: Under 43.5
New England Patriots vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Odds
Even after an embarrassing loss to the Arizona Cardinals, oddsmakers have tempered their expectations of the Cowboys and still opened them as a comfortable -4.5 favorite over the New England Patriots. Bettors are under the same belief, backing the Cowboys up to -6.5 as of writing. Expect a motivated Cowboys unit to get back on track as the far superior unit on both sides of the ball.
As for the total, points are expected to be scored at a moderate pace as oddsmakers opened the number at 45.5. Bettors believe points will come at a slow pace, taking the under down to as low as 43. Defense will be on full display as the Patriots scheme is built to give turnover worthy prone quarterbacks fits while the Cowboys send pressure at a consistent rate to Mac Jones.
New England Patriots vs. Dallas Cowboys Key Injuries
While the Patriots come into this contest fairly healthy, the Cowboys are dealing with injury uncertainty across their offensive line with Tyron Smith, Tyler Biadasz, and Zach Martin being labeled as questionable.
New England Patriots vs. Dallas Cowboys Key Matchups
Can the Dallas defense limit the production of dual threat back Rhamondre Stevenson?
Rhamondre Stevenson Vs. Cowboys Front Seven
If the Cowboys want to routinely force the Patriots into three and outs, then they will need to send pressure to Mac Jones while also containing Rhamondre Stevenson. Stevenson has developed into one of the better dual threat running backs in the league and may play a key role in countering their pressure.
This will force the Cowboys linebackers to sit on an island, preparing to screen down the sides should Mac Jones dump it off to Stevenson. That puts added pressure on the Cowboys secondary to hold up in coverage, giving their line enough time to push back and force the checkdown. With the Patriots having a below average defense line, they should have no issue collapsing the pocket and cleaning up the sides.