PGA Championship Odds & Golf DFS Picks: 5 Longshot Bets, Including Patrick Reed

By John Haslbauer | May 13, 2025, 3:01pm

The content keeps on flowing with PGA Championship sleepers! Of the four Majors, it’s this event, for whatever reason, that has produced the most surprises. Whether it be Xander Shauffele’s breakthrough win at Valhalla last year, Michael Block’s sudden emergence at Oak Hill, or Phil Mickelson’s unfathomable conquest of Kiawah Island in 2021, you never quite know what you’re going to get out of the PGA Championship. As such, that opens the door for longshot golf DFS picks.

While Quail Hollow Club plays into the strengths of this week’s top favorites like Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, and Bryson DeChambeau, there are plenty of diamonds in the rough further down the board who possess the upside to contend on these grounds. Simply put, Quail Hollow Club is built to reward the longest drivers in the field who can reliably scramble in difficult conditions.

So, with some help from Underdog Fantasy, let’s get to our 2025 PGA Championship longshots and sleepers for your Fantasy lineups and betting cards. Click on odds anywhere below to bet now at the best sports betting sites in your state.

PGA Championship Odds

Quail Hollow Club: Course Introduction

Quail Hollow delivers what you might expect from a modern-day Major venue. Extreme length (7,626 yards), grown-out rough, and ample hazards surrounding the fairway landing areas and greens to penalize imperfect ball-striking.

Although many measures have been taken over the years to make the course play firmer and ultimately bring those lateral hazards even more into play, Mother Nature has unfortunately not been cooperative. A heavy week of rain in Charlotte is likely to produce very soft conditions come tournament week, which will heighten the advantage for the longest hitters, and ultimately produce more scorable conditions relative to other recent PGA Championships played in firmer conditions.

For a deeper dive into the course, read my PGA Championship preview. Without any further delay, let’s get to our PGA Championship picks, with a focus on longshots and golf DFS sleepers for your fantasy lineups.

PGA Championship: Golf DFS Picks

To identify “value” any given week on the PGA Tour, I find it’s best first to understand the consensus key stat profile. Then, take a stance on the elements of the tournament that may go overlooked. At the PGA Championship, Recent Form, performance in recent Majors, and Driving Distance are consensus key areas factored into each player’s price.

From a sleeper perspective, I will take a stance primarily on the importance of Comp Course History to differentiate my player pool and find value for this week’s tournament. Quail Hollow resembles many other modern Major venues and should reward a similar group of bombers with the reliable short game.

Below, find my favorite value PGA golf DFS picks and longshots for the 2025 PGA Championship. Stats pulled across the last 36 rounds unless otherwise noted.

Related: Best PGA Championship Odds To Make & Miss The Cut

Patrick Reed:

A wet Quail Hollow Club is exactly what a player like Patrick Reed did not need leading into the PGA Championship, but nonetheless, there’s still plenty to like about his chances this week.

Reed was a surprise riser in my model this week, coming in at No. 7 overall. That’s not something I typically would expect from someone who plays full-time on LIV with limited Strokes Gained data to track, but it’s his performance in comp, difficult conditions that have kept him rising to the top. Reed ranks No. 7 in course history at Quail Hollow Club, including three top-10 finishes here over his last four appearances.

His best finish at this venue was a T2 the last time Quail Hollow hosted a PGA Championship in 2017. There are no questions about his current form either, as he’s finished top-7 in four of his last five starts, including an impressive 3rd place showing at The Masters.

Reed has made the cut in 20 of his last 21 Major starts, with 11 top-20s over that span. Although he won’t fit the “bomber” narrative on a long and soft layout at Quail Hollow, that’s never stopped him before from contending in these conditions.

Byeong Hun An:

The exact archetype of player I’m looking for in the value range of the board, An can bomb it off the tee, and has great touch around the greens needed to scramble in difficult conditions.

He’s no stranger to Quail Hollow Club, finishing 3rd in his previous visit at the 2024 Wells Fargo Championship. He’s leaned on those particular sets of skills at other long and challenging Bermuda venues like Bay Hill, where he posted his best finish of the season thus far (T8).

An is still chasing his first career PGA Tour win, and it may be a bit far-fetched to expect that feat to come this week, but with four top-25 finishes over his last six Major starts, he’s proven that his length and touch around the green can translate in the most difficult of scoring conditions, and will be an intriguing play in fantasy and placement betting this week.

Dean Burmester:

Clean Dean Burmester is likely to be one of the trendier value picks this week. The LIV golfer has looked good overall this season with five top-15 finishes on LIV, and locked up automatic qualification for the 2025 PGA Championship after finishing top-15 at Valhalla last year.

Burmester is known as a bomber, ranking in the top 15 in the field in Driving Distance. He has also historically distinguished himself with his short game. That profile has translated to early success on the biggest stages, finishing top-20 in three of his last five Majors.

Ranking top-20 in SG: OTT and Prox: 175+, Burmester has some appealing upside for a top-20 bid relative to his price this week.

Sergio Garcia:

If you’re sensing a theme here, there seems to be plenty of value on the LIV players this week, whose current form and historical success at Quail Hollow are not being taken into account. Sergio was a trendy value consideration at The Masters last month, and a disappointing missed cut may have now led to this discounted price and projected ownership in fantasy formats.

Quail Hollow would seem to be the ideal get-right spot for the Spaniard, however, as he ranks No. 8 in the field in Course History at this venue with four career top-15 finishes. That course fit passes the eye test for one of the greatest drivers of his generation, as Sergio has seen his best results come on venues where the strongest total drivers with plus distance can separate.

With a win and two additional top-5 finishes over his last seven starts, the upside is there for Sergio at this price, as he sets out to make a statement for his case to join the European Ryder Cup team at Bethpage this fall.

Phil Mickelson:

I will caveat by saying I do not think Phil Mickelson is going to contend to win this week. But if you’re looking for some value on a fantasy salary-saver, or a cut-maker who can push for a top-40 finish at solid odds, I think Phil might just be your guy.

Absent Rory McIlroy, the player in the field with the best resume at Quail Hollow is none other than Phil Mickelson. Phil has posted a staggering 12 top-12 finishes at Quail Hollow over 17 career appearances. Like so many of the other value players highlighted in this article, a simple combination of Driving Distance and touch around the greens has allowed Phil to play so consistently here over the years.

It has only been four years since Phil emerged victorious at the PGA Championship in Kiawah Island, and with four top-22 finishes over his last six starts on LIV, there seems to be enough left in the tank for Phil to hold his own on a long and soft Quail Hollow set up this week.

Best of luck if you choose to roster these PGA Championship golf DFS picks!

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