PGA Championship Pool Picks: Strategy & Expert Predictions, Including Xander Schauffele
The most popular time of the year for golf pools has arrived. If you’re a casual fan, hesitant to bet on the odds for the PGA Championship, and want to play in a contest with friends, you’ve come to the right place. This strategy guide will walk you through the best options in each tier for your 2025 PGA Championship pool picks.
I’ve also written about PGA Championship DFS and longshot picks for fantasy contests, which could also apply to traditional pools.
PGA Championship Betting Odds
Find odds for this year’s PGA Championship below. You can use these to inform your PGA Championship pool picks as well. Click any odds to wager on the PGA Championship odds at betting apps in your area.
Strategy For PGA Championship Pools
Like a daily fantasy tournament strategy (DraftKings, FanDuel, etc.), game theory is key for your PGA Championship pool picks. It’s best first to understand who the popular players in each tier will be, then decide which ones you want to double down on and which ones you’re comfortable fading for a more contrarian option.
Below, we’ll review each tier’s consensus popular and pivot plays. The format in each golf pool will vary, but the tiers below are structured in order of consensus betting odds, as is most common for golf pools.
How Do PGA Championship Pools Work?
Typically, the best cumulative score under par of the players rostered wins a PGA Championship pool. Some pools will severely penalize one of your players’ scores if they miss the cut. For example, if a player misses the cut with a score of +2, the pool may add 10 strokes and make the player +12. That means it’s critical that the players you pick make the cut.
Also, check your pool rules to see if the worst score is not counted among your picks. Sometimes, this is a feature of golf pool rules and scoring.
Tier 1: Top 1-6 Players
The Popular Play: Rory McIlroy ()
All roads lead to McIlroy this week as far as I’m concerned. Those with the longest carry distance are poised to separate at Quail Hollow, a game plan which Rory has successfully executed time and time again on these grounds. He’s won the Wells Fargo Championship four times at this venue, including his most recent appearance last year, and will be playing as free as ever in his first Major start since achieving the career Grand Slam.
The Pivot Play: Xander Schauffele ()
The reigning PGA Champion returns to a course he’s had great success at in the past (runner-up finishes in his last two appearances), while showing great current form (four consecutive top-20 finishes). And yet, nobody we be bold enough to play Schauffele in this tier over the “Big 3” of McIlroy, Scheffler, and DeChambeau. Quail Hollow bears so much in common with Valhalla, so it should not surprise anyone if Schauffele goes on to contend in his title defense this week.
Tier 2: Top 7-20 Players
The Popular Play: Justin Thomas ()
The winner of the last PGA Championship at Quail Hollow when it last hosted in 2017, Thomas, will be chasing his third career PGA Championship win this week. He’ll have a great case to do so, as he’s currently showing ideal form with three top-3 finishes over his last four starts, including a win in his most recent trip to the Carolinas. Thomas is not exactly a “bomber,” but he’s made great strides this season to improve his driving distance, which has paid dividends so far in this comeback season.
The Pivot Play: Hideki Matsuyama ()
Matsuyama is rarely a chalk play in Major pools, despite having a prototypical game to score in difficult conditions. The former Masters champ finished T5 the last time the PGA Championship came to Quail Hollow in 2017, and he’s continued to build a strong track record in Majors since. He’s made the cut in all 19 majors played since 2020, and has 10 career top-10 finishes in Majors to his name.
Tier 3: Top 21-50 Players
The Popular Play: Patrick Reed ()
Normally one to sneak below the radar, Reed will no longer be catching anyone by surprise after his latest stretch of performances in the major championships. Reed proved he can atone for his lack of distance on long courses with a 3rd place finish at The Masters last month, and has now finished top-10 in five of his last seven starts. At Quail Hollow, he’s also finished in the top 10 in three of his last four trips.
The Pivot Play: Sergio Garcia ()
The LIV player in this range who is far more likely to fly under the radar this week is Sergio Garcia. Like Reed, Sergio also has a great track record at Quail Hollow with four career top-15 finishes. Garcia’s game is far more tailored to score around a track like this, as he has sustainably gained off the tee as a credit to his Driving Distance advantage. With two top-5 finishes over his last five starts, he’ll return to Charlotte in solid form.
Tier 4: Top 51-75 Players
The Popular Play: Dean Burmester ()
Another LIV player who suits the course well this week, Burmester is in the field by way of automatic qualifying with a top-15 at the 2024 PGA Championship. Like Valhalla, Quail Hollow will also be playing soft and wet come Thursday, which heightens the advantage for bombers like himself with the longest carry distance. It’s been a good season for Burmester as well, with five top-15 finishes over his last eight starts.
The Pivot Play: Taylor Pendrith ()
The mirror image of Burmester’s game, Taylor Pendrith, is perhaps less of a risk given the long-term data we know about him on the PGA Tour. Despite that safety net, you’re still likely to find him at low ownership as we’ll be buying low on his form leading in. Looking more long term, however, Pendrith has plenty of familiarity with Quail Hollow, finishing T10 at the 2024 Wells Fargo Championship and gaining some valuable experience here at the 2022 Presidents Cup. The Canadian has three top-10s this season and presents an interesting high-ceiling opportunity.
Tier 5: Top 76+ Players
The Popular Play: Keith Mitchell ()
Perhaps the most mis-priced player in fantasy and pool formats, Keith Mitchell, will command high ownership this week across all formats. That’s a frightening proposition for a player who has not won since early 2019 and has a reputation for disappointing in big moments, so I may find myself zagging off the chalk in this instance. Still, Mitchell is red hot leading into this event with five straight top-20s, and has finished top-10 in two of his last three trips to Quail Hollow.
The Pivot Play: Kurt Kitayama ()
I’m all in on bombers with proven success on other long and demanding courses, if you couldn’t tell by this point. Kitayama’s results so far this season tell the story of a disappointing 2025, however, the stats would suggest he’s due for a breakout soon. He ranks top-15 in Driving Distance and Prox: 175+, two crucially important areas to score at Quail Hollow. He’ll now enter with some positive momentum, coming off of his best finish of the season – a T5 at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson.
Best of luck with your PGA Championship pool picks!
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