Philadelphia 76ers vs. New York Knicks NBA Player Props & Picks (12/25/22)

Get Philadelphia 76ers vs. New York Knicks player prop picks & odds for the (12/25/22) matchup

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Philadelphia 76ers vs. New York Knicks Player Prop Picks

The first game of the Christmas slate is 76ers versus Knicks – a battle between two Eastern Conference playoff squads. The preview on the game lines can be found here, but a breakdown of the best bets for player props only is below.

Joel Embiid Over 3.5 Assists (-120 FD)

Embiid has hit this in 3 of his last 4 games, and I expect him to get 4-5 assists here. Mitchell Robinson is an excellent rim protector, and he defends vertically at a high level. Embiid will subsequently face contested shots all game, and the Knicks may send a double team frequently. I still expect him to score plenty, but the 76ers big man likely passes more often than usual. He’s great at passing out of the double team to open shooters, and the 76ers rank 1st with a 40.3 catch and shoot 3PT%. His enormous usage means he will control the ball often, which gives him plenty of chances to kick it out for an assist. 

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Joel Embiid First Basket (+280 FD)

The tip-off will be close, but I give the slight edge to Philadelphia. Embiid absolutely dominates his team’s volume, as he takes the 76ers First FGA just over 50% of the time. He’s scoring 33 PPG on a 52.8 FG%, and Embiid can knock down shots against anyone. Given that it is also a Christmas game, I expect Embiid to open up the game with a shot attempt because he wants to put on a show. It’s important to take First Basket instead of First Field Goal despite the odds drop because Embiid racks up free throws. For the season, Embiid is at 11.8 FTA, and he owns an 86 FT%.

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Quentin Grimes Over 1.5 Threes (-155 DK)

The Knicks offense often runs through Jalen Brunson drives, and he will have to pass more often out of them with Embiid waiting in the paint. As a whole, the Knicks probably must take more perimeter jumpers than they are used to because of Embiid. That’s a great sign for Grimes, who has seen a large increase in volume. Over his last eight games, Grimes is at 2.9 3PM, 6.3 3PA, and a 46 3PT%. The 76ers also allow a decent amount of open threes, and they will be locked in on defending Brunson, Barrett, and Randle – not Grimes. Therefore, Grimes likely has his defender sag more than he should, which will provide him space to launch. The odds are not ideal, but I believe it hits enough to take them.

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Tobias Harris Over 15.5 Points (-108 FD)

He’s hit this in 11 of his last 14 games. Because I expect Embiid to pass more and Harden operates more as a scorer than playmaker, that leaves Harris in a great position to capitalize. The forward owns a sparkling 49/41/86 shooting split, so his efficiency means he won’t need huge volume to score 16 points. Philadelphia’s bench is also depleted, so Harris will see around 35 minutes – a great number for points props.

Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2022 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs regarding analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions.

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