Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys NFL Player Props & Picks (12/24/2022)
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Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys Player Prop Picks
Two of the top Super Bowl contenders in the NFC collide on Christmas eve when the Philadelphia Eagles (13-1) visit the Dallas Cowboys (10-4). This game has lost some of its anticipated hype due to the Jalen Hurts injury and the lack of playoff implications (both teams’ playoff seedings are fairly secure regardless of the outcome of this game). However, this is still one of the most heated rivalries in the NFL, and there will be plenty of intensity and intrigue on both sides.
With Jalen Hurts being out, how will the Eagles’ vaunted offense perform against one of the best defenses in the league? Will the Eagles’ revamped run defense be able to slow down the Cowboys’ dynamic duo of Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott? If they do, does Dak Prescott have what it takes to beat the Eagles’ dominant pass defense?
Let’s take a look at the player prop bets I like the most in this Eagles vs. Cowboys matchup.
Dak Prescott under 247.5 passing yards (-115 at FanDuel)
As of this writing, Prescott’s passing yards prop ranges from 240.5 at Caesars to 247.5 at FanDuel. I like the under on Prescott’s passing this week, so head on over to FanDuel to get the best odds if you want to bet the under along with me.
The Eagles have arguably the best pass defense in the league, ranking 2nd in DVOA and allowing the fewest yards per game and the fewest net yards gained per pass attempt in the league. They have allowed only one quarterback all season to hit the over on their passing yards prop, and Taylor Heinicke only hit the over by 0.5 yards in week 10.
The most passing yards the Eagles have allowed all season was 250 by Kyler Murray in week five. They have held the last four quarterbacks they’ve faced – Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Tannehill, Daniel Jones and Justin Fields – all under 170 yards.
Prescott has been hitting the over the reliably this season, doing so in six of his last seven games. However, he is averaging just 251.7 passing yards during that span, so he would need to get close to his average this week to hit the over. Doing that against this pass defense will be a difficult task, which is why this line feels too high for me.
I also expect the Cowboys to rely heavily on their ground game to attack this Eagles’ defense, which is another factor driving me to pick the under on Prescott. Not only is the Eagles’ run defense the more vulnerable aspect of their defense, despite recent improvements, but the Cowboys’ signal caller has also thrown seven interceptions over the last four weeks. They can help him limit those turnovers by leaning on the run and avoiding putting him in obvious passing situations.
Miles Sanders over 64.5 rushing yards (-110 at BetMGM)
Sanders inexplicably had one of his quietest games of the season last week against the Bears with only 11 carries for 42 yards. The Eagles have shown on multiple occasions this season that after one of their star players has a quiet week, they will make a point of getting him involved early in the next game. That probably would have happened anyway in a game with a backup quarterback and the lack of Hurts’ rushing dynamic.
Sanders had 18 carries for 71 yards in week six against Dallas, and I expect him to get plenty of volume again in this game. The first-time Pro Bowl selection is averaging 5.2 yards per carry this season, the third highest average of any running back in the league this season (behind Khalil Herbert and Tony Pollard). As long as he gets the expected volume, he should have no problem clearing the over this week.
Devonta Smith over 50.5 receiving yards (-115)
While I do anticipate Sanders to get plenty of volume, that’s not because I am concerned about the Eagles’ passing offense with Gardner Minshew. Minshew is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league and is more than capable of getting the ball to the Eagles’ talented pass catchers. Of those pass catchers, I am most confident in Devonta Smith hitting the over this week.
Smith has gone over 100 yards in two of the last three weeks and he has cleared 50.5 yards in four of the last five. Of course, that was with Hurts under center rather than Minshew, and it’s difficult to predict which receivers will have the best chemistry with a new signal caller.
The other reason I am picking Smith is because of injuries in the Cowboys’ secondary. The Cowboys have lost two of their top three cornerbacks (Anthony Brown and Jourdan Lewis). Top cornerback Trevon Diggs is healthy and will likely shadow A.J. Brown for most of the game, but they are vulnerable on the other side and in the slot.
Second-year outside corner Kelvin Joseph struggled last week after being elevated to a starting role, and he was benched for fellow sophomore corner Nahshon Wright. Smith is likely to see the most snaps opposite either Joseph or Wright and should have no problem getting plenty of separation in those matchups.
As of this writing there are no prop lines available for Smith’s receptions, but I would also be interested that bet if it comes in at 4.5 or less.
