Philadelphia Eagles vs. Denver Broncos Player Props (11/14/21)

The Broncos had their best win of the season against the Cowboys last week, while the Eagles suffered a disappointing loss to the Chargers. I’ll be honest right off the bat – this is not my favorite game to bet this weekend. However, I believe I have found a few decent avenues for prop bet value despite what could be a lower-scoring game. Let’s dive in.

Philadelphia Eagles Vs. Denver Broncos Player Prop Search Tool

Melvin Gordon Anytime TD

You might as well change his name to Melvin Score-don because he seems to score a touchdown in every game – he has four touchdowns over the past three weeks. Javonte Williams has started to break into Gordon’s rushing workload, but Gordon has the red-zone role on lock – he has 25 touches to Williams’s 15 this season, and last week had five touches to Williams’s two. Despite a strong group of skill-position talent in Denver, Gordon is still the pick for me as the guy to score a touchdown this week, and it’s crazy that you can find him at plus money. He’s one of my favorite picks for the First TD/Anytime TD promos some sportsbooks are rolling out, as well.

Jalen Hurts Over 46.5 Rushing Yards

I don’t fully understand why this line is still priced below 50 yards as Hurts has averaged 54.8 rushing yards this season and has gone over this line in his last three games. Jalen Hurts is not a good quarterback, but he has the best rushing baseline at the position in the NFL outside of Lamar Jackson. The Broncos’ defense is still rotating in new front seven pieces, and I’m not sure how much of their performance last week is prescriptive moving forward for a defense allowing the eighth-most rushing yards per game in the NFL. Hurts should be able to hit this number as he frequently has this season.

Javonte Williams Over 48.5 Rushing Yards

Javonte Williams has just a 44% hit rate on this prop this season, but I’m ready to buy into the breakout for the rookie runner. Williams ran for over 100 yards for the first time in his career last week. Melvin Gordon continues to out-snap Williams as they play in a timeshare, but there should be enough work to go around against a Philadelphia defense that allows 119.7 rushing yards per game. Williams is averaging 4.9 YPC and has gone over this number on seven and eight carries this season, so he doesn’t need many carries to hit the over here.

Dallas Goedert Over 45.5 Receiving Yards

All alone as the lead tight end in Philadelphia, Dallas Goedert’s production has increased since the Eagles traded veteran Zach Ertz to Arizona. Since the trade happened, Goedert has averaged four catches for 61.6 yards in three games. Denver has a solid tight-end defense – they rank 13th in DVOA against the position per Football Outsiders – but Goedert is clearly the top target in the offense outside of DeVonta Smith. Goedert should have hit this line last week, and I’m calling for him to hit it here, although this one could be close.