Philadelphia Eagles Vs. Houston Texans NFL Player Props & Picks (11/3/22)

Get Philadelphia Eagles Vs. Houston Texans player prop picks & odds for the (11/3/22) matchup

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Philadelphia Eagles Vs. Houston Texans Player Prop Picks

On Thursday night, as the Phillies and Astros face off in Game 5 of the World Series in Philadelphia, the Eagles will travel to play the Texans in an inter-conference matchup. These two teams are polar opposites in terms of record and on-field product, and it will show in this game. However, that doesn’t mean we can’t find value in the player props market. In this article, I’ll break down my favorite options for this primetime game. You can use the Eagles vs. Texans player prop search tool above to compare odds from different sportsbooks. Let’s get to work.

Davis Mills Under 223.5 Passing Yards (-115 DraftKings)

Davis Mills has had a solid sophomore season in the NFL, averaging 214.5 passing yards per game and tossing for eight touchdowns to six picks, but this is a brutal matchup for him. The Eagles have allowed just one quarterback to go over 223.5 passing yards all season, and it was Kyler Murray. Altogether, the Eagles have allowed just 183.4 passing yards per game, the fourth-fewest in the NFL.

Philadelphia boasts perhaps the best trio of cornerbacks in the NFL in Darius Slay, James Bradberry, and Avonte Maddox, and the Texans simply don’t have the pass-catchers to beat them. I’d project Mills for much closer to 200 passing yards this week, and while there could be garbage time for him to boost his passing yardage, the Eagles have seemingly played with a big lead all season and it hasn’t led to any more passing production for opponents.

Jalen Hurts Longest Passing Completion Under 37.5 Yards (-114 FanDuel)

This one is going to take some cajones, and I don’t blame you if you don’t want to bet it – Jalen Hurts’s downfield passing looked fantastic last week. However, the Steeelers blitzed Hurts at a 59.4% rate last week per Sharp Football. Heading into Week 8, Hurts had staggering splits vs the blitz, and the Steelers looked to exploit that. However, Hurts pushed the ball downfield with an 11.53-yard aDOT against the blitz. 21% of his passes against the blitz went 20+ air yards.

This week, Hurts faces a much more conservative Houston defense. With Lovie Smith’s Tampa 2/Cover 3 base defense, the Texans blitz at just a 16.5% rate, the eighth-lowest in the NFL. They’ve allowed the fifth-most yards per completion, but they have allowed just one pass of 38+ yards all season. Hurts hit the under on this prop in three straight games prior to last week, and I expect the Texans to keep the Eagles’ offense in front of them enough for that trend to return.

DeVonta Smith Over 4.5 Receptions

I’m not listing a sportsbook here as this prop hasn’t been posted when I’m writing this article, but I’ll be playing the over on DeVonta Smith’s receptions, so long as it’s at the 4.5 number where it’s been the past few weeks. He’s hit the over on this prop in three straight games and in five of his last six, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see the sportsbooks adjust at some point soon.

If the prop is listed at 5.5 receptions, I’ll likely look to pivot to Smith’s yardage prop, which is listed at 53.5. He’s been under that number in three of his last four games, but he will likely draw a fair amount of rookie Derek Stingley Jr. in this game. That’s a highly exploitable matchup, particularly as the Texans continue to try to find a square peg into a round hole. Stingley is a pure press man coverage corner, and he’s not well suited for Lovie Smith’s defense. That plays right into Smith’s hands this week.