Philadelphia Eagles vs. Indianapolis Colts NFL Player Props & Picks (11/20/22)

Get Philadelphia Eagles vs. Indianapolis Colts player prop picks & odds for the (11/20/2022) matchup

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Philadelphia Eagles vs. Indianapolis Colts Player Prop Picks

The Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) are looking to bounce back from their first loss of the season as they visit the Indianapolis Colts (4-5). The Eagles have been struggling to stop the run over the last two weeks, which was a big part of the recipe for the Washington Commanders to end their run as the NFL’s last remaining unbeaten team. Now they face the tall task of slowing down one of the league’s best running backs in Jonathan Taylor.

In the Colts’ first game under interim coach Jeff Saturday, Taylor rushed for over 100 yards for the first time since week one. It was no surprise that Saturday, the longtime center for the Colts, emphasized establishing the run. All signs point to more of the same against the Eagles this week. So is Taylor a good bet to go over his rushing yards prop line this week?

Let’s take a look at the player prop bets I like the most in this Eagles vs. Colts matchup.

Jonathan Taylor over 85.5 rushing yards (-115)

Let’s pay off that tease right now. No, Taylor is not a good bet to go over his 85.5 rushing yards line against the Eagles. He is a risky bet, at best. This was just the second time this season that Taylor exceeded that number. The Colts’ offensive line has struggled to create running lanes all season, and one big game against a bad defense does not erase that, even if it does provide hope that the Colts can turn things around. We can assume that as a former offensive lineman, Saturday’s offensive philosophy will be to run the ball as much as possible, but a one-game sample size can’t really tell us that.

So I can’t give you many facts or stats to back up this pick. What I can give you is this:

2021 Jonathan Taylor is back. pic.twitter.com/g8JWJ9Yw79

— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) November 13, 2022

This pick is much less about facts and trends and much more about watching how Taylor ran the ball last week and believing he looked much more like his 2021 version than the one we have seen in 2022. It’s also about the matchup with the struggling Eagles run defense, which has allowed 140 or more rushing yards for three straight weeks. The Eagles are so desperate for help stopping the run that they acquired two veteran defensive tackles this week in Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh. While both players have a chance to suit up this week, it will likely be on a very limited basis.

I can’t in good conscience recommend betting with your gut, but in this case that’s exactly what I’m doing. Trust your eyes, trust your gut, and take the over.

Jalen Hurts under 42.5 rushing yards (-115)

Over the first five weeks, Hurts was averaging 13.6 rushing attempts and 53.2 rushing yards per game. Over the last four games, he is averaging just 6.5 attempts and 22 rushing yards per game. As Hurts has established himself as a pocket passer, there has been less need for him to use his legs to make plays. There has also been less of a need for the Eagles to put their emerging star quarterback in harm’s way.

The Colts’ defense is one of the best in the league at containing running quarterbacks. They are allowing just 12.8 rushing yards per game to opposing QBs, sixth best in the league.

Hurts will still use his legs to escape the pocket and pick up first downs when he can, but that doesn’t add up to a high rushing total.

Devonta Smith over 4.5 receptions (-150)

The injury to Dallas Goedert left a pretty big void amongst the Eagles’ pass catchers. Goedert’s six targets, five catches and 60 receiving yards per game have to go somewhere, and it’s unlikely they will go to backup tight ends Jack Stoll and Grant Calcaterra. The burden will fall on the Eagles wide receivers to pick up the slack, and I’m betting on Smith to be one of the main beneficiaries in this game (along with one other guy – more on that below).

Frankly, even without the Goedert injury, Smith was a good bet to catch five balls this week. He has caught at least five passes in six of his nine games this season and four of his last five, and he is averaging almost exactly five catches per game for the season (5.1 to be precise).

Assuming the Colts’ top cornerback Stephon Gilmore will primarily be shadowing A.J. Brown, Smith also draws the much more favorable coverage matchup. The Colts’ other starting cornerback, Kenny Moore, has been struggling this season. A pro bowl selection last year, Moore is allowing 8.4 yards per target, 13.1 yards per completion, and a 108.7 passer rating when targeted this season – all the worst marks of his six-year career. Moore has also missed two practices this week with an undisclosed illness before returning to full participation on Friday, so it’s unclear if he will be 100% in this game.

Smith is going to get plenty of opportunities to catch passes in this game. This is the best prop pick in the game, despite the juice being high at -150.

Quez Watkins over 2.5 receptions (+140)

That other guy who I expect to benefit from Goedert’s absence is Watkins. The speedy slot receiver may actually be the biggest beneficiary. The Eagles loved to use Goedert in the screen game to take advantage of his run-after-catch ability. Well Watkins might not do it the same way Goedert does, with deceptive shiftiness and brute force, but Watkins can also be lethal with the ball in his hands. He has taken a few screen plays to the house in his short career.

This one went for 32 yards against the Cardinals in his rookie season.

Quez Watkins puts the #Eagles on the board on a 32-yard screen play. Eagles trail 16-7 in the second quarter. pic.twitter.com/lrSc9uHQSl
Follow live: https://t.co/U6YAKza8hi

— Philadelphia Inquirer Sports (@phillysport) December 20, 2020

And this one was in the preseason last year, but the burst he showed is undeniable.

https://twitter.com/LiorKozai/status/1425974351032201216?s=20&t=j4Zp1MkMPcIzZTFkkvpGXA

Watkins may only have 12 catches and 17 targets this season, but I like the chances of his role increasing this week, particularly if he gets a couple opportunities to catch screen passes. He may also be drawing a reserve cornerback as his primary coverage, with the Colts’ typical nickel corner Isaiah Rodgers being added to the injury report late in the week with an illness.

I love this pick with the plus odds you’re getting.

Bonus pick: Zach Pascal anytime touchdown (+1100)

This one is obviously a long shot, but that’s why you’re getting +1100 odds. Nick Sirianni seems like the type of coach that wants to give a player a chance to shine against his former team. That is the main reason I’m offering this pick. But to give you some actual analysis, Pascal is also likely to see an uptick in snaps with Goedert out.

With his size and blocking ability, Pascal actually offers a more comparable combination of blocking and pass catching ability to Goedert than either of the Eagles’ backup tight ends. Jack Stoll is primarily an in-line blocker, and offers some limited pass-catching ability. Grant Calcaterra is the better pass-catcher, but doesn’t offer much as a blocker.

If Pascal is on the field more, then there is at least some chance of him getting in the endzone, which he has already done once this season.