Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots (11/17/2019): NFL Betting Picks, Lines

This Week: 5-6
All Time Results: 69-61-1, +10.23 Units

Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 vs. New England Patriots – 1 Unit

Get your dog masks out.  The Eagles‘ against all odds instincts will be in full effect again as they pull off this shocker.

philadelphia eaglesI think this line is 3 points off on a power rating basis.  There are several leaguewide trends that point heavily in the Patriots favor.  However, I don’t think the situational spot will benefit New England as much as it does other teams.  Unlike many Road Favorites that benefit from a Bye Week, New England seemingly never overlooks their opponent, treating each game as an opportunity to excel at their craft.

“We actually try to play good football,” Bill Belichick once said about the optics of a blowout.   As Martin Scorcese only cares about the merits of every minute of his films – and not the opinions of Vanity Fair – so Bill Belichick and the Patriots simply care about their performance on every down.

For a long time, you couldn’t bet the Patriots after a loss.  In the Brady/Belichick era – from 2001 on – the Patriots have covered the spread 66.7% of the time after a SU loss (44-22-2).  However, the Patriots have evolved.  They are no longer upstarts.  Whatever it was that helped them spring back in their earlier years – may well be implicit in each and every game today.  Since they won the first SB of the second trilogy, Belichick’s Patriots are only 7-6-1 ATS after a straight-up loss, losing 3 out of their past 4.

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Philadelphia Eagles +1.5 (+140) vs. New England Patriots – .1 Unit

Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 (+188) vs. New England Patriots – .1 Unit

Like the Patriots, the Eagles are also off of their Bye Week.

The Patriots are only 11-8 ATS in games after their regular-season bye.  (They have had so many playoff Bye that the “regular season” filter takes out almost half the data.)

Belichick defense & Eagles HC Dough Pederson have had two weeks to prepare for one another once before.  The result: One of the marquee offensive performances in Super Bowl history – as the Eagles put up 41 points in SB LII, only punting once.  You may remember.  Nick Foles was involved.

While Foles and OC Frank Reich are gone, I still think the Eagles and Carson Wentz will be able to move the ball this game.

philadelphia eaglesPhiladelphia has the 9th best rushing attack, according to Football Outsiders and moreover, has shown improvement in recent weeks, even without their talisman left tackle, Jason Peters, who may be back this week.  The Eagles have run for 364 yards their past two games.

The Patriots – #1 with a bullet in overall defense – only rank 14th against the run, according to DVOA.  That without facing any particularly strong rushing attacks.

While New England has swallowed QB’s whole this season – they haven’t faced anybody good.  At least, they hadn’t faced anybody good until last week – when Lamar Jackson waxed them. In other words, the Pats are 0-1 against average or better QBs this year.

On the other side of the ball, I like the matchup as well.  The Patriots rank 30th – barely above fellow AFC Easters, the Dolphins & the Jets -when it comes to yards per rush (3.3).  Conversely, the Eagles have been among the league’s best run-stoppers for years and currently rank 8th in the category according to Football Outsiders.

So the Patriots will have to rely on Tom Brady and their passing attack.  If this were February, I would believe in the Golden Boy finding a way once again.  But it’s November and the Patriots have had moving parts in their wide receiving core all year.  I don’t expect them to be firing on all cylinders quite yet.  Remember last year around at this time, the Patriots were in Pennsylvania against the Steelers and only managed 10 points for the entire contest.

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Born in Chicago, born for Las Vegas, Mackenzie is a graduate of Yale University with a BA in English & Creative Writting. Mackenzie runs AlternativeStats.blog, which seeks to by-pass the minutiae of commonly cited sports statistics and expose the heart of what drives athletic success. After several successful years investing in Las Vegas real estate, Mackenzie is excited to transition in 2019 into betting on sports full time, as well as documenting his thought process as he further learns the craft.

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