Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants (12/9/19): NFL Betting Picks, Lines

This Week: 8-1-1
All Time Results: 86-77-2, +10.98 Units

New York Giants +9.5 @ Philadelphia Eagles – .2 Unit

Road dogs kept running rampant this weekend going 5-2-2 on Sunday, pushing their season-long hit rate to 60% ATS (72-48-5).

Playing into this theme, tonight we get one of the wiliest road warriors in the sport’s history seeking to beat the odds potentially one last time in the city of Brotherly Love.

new york giantsSay what you want about Lil Bro, Eli Manning.  The kid doesn’t rattle.   With 5 road playoff victories to his name, Manning has proven he can handle the most hostile of environs.

From his first year as a full-time starter coming into this year (2005-2018), Eli has had an excellent 26-18 ATS (59%) record in road divisional games.  Over that time span, the Giants have at a 61% ATS rate in general on the road (69-45-1).

As a road dog of more than 7, Manning is 10-4 ATS (71%) for his career, beating expectations on average by 4.6 points.

One might say – hey, all those numbers describe a time when Eli & the Giants were good.  They’re not good anymore – expo facto those trends are meaningless. Maybe. But the Giants went a sneaky 7-1 ATS on the road last year with Eli, despite losing 5 of those games.  At least when it comes to surpassing expectation, recent history suggests Eli can still get it done on the road.

Lastly, despite his downslide in recent years, Manning has proven especially capable when facing division opponents.  My theory: the familiarity of the opposing teams and schemes helps Eli make up for his growing physical limitations.  Manning’s Giants have scored 28.5 points in his last 4 divisional games.

 

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New York Giants -3 (+425) @ Philadelphia Eagles – .1 Unit

I’ll add in one conspiracy theory for good measure.  The refs will want the Giants to stay competitive in this game.  Not only is competitive football always good for ratings, but Eli may also get the sympathetic vote.  Yesterday in New Orleans we saw Jarred Cook drop a touchdown pass after getting hit in the head.  Everybody in the booth said it was unquestionably a touchdown… even though he held the ball for hardly a quarter second before rolling over on the ground in a heap.  Discerning, unemotional eyes like Warren Sharp called it out as a bad call.  Maybe it was – but it wasn’t surprising.  When 32 year-old-man lies unconscious on the ground, it’s not good business to disappoint is already aggrieved fantasy owners. Give him a touchdown and give him a stretcher, is the mantra.  Hope his millions cover most of the trauma, thank him sincerely for his hard-won contributions to the game we love, and move on.

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles Over 45 – .25 Units

philadelphia eaglesWhether we get good Eli or bad Eli – I don’t expect him to go softly into that good night.  Likely Manning falls under the .500 threshold as starter for his career after this game – and I don’t expect him to do so checking it down.  Whether Lil Bro Manning is throwing TDs or pick 6’s, I think we hit the Over by a good margin.

For Philly’s part, the Eagles offense is getting healthier.  The last time saw them out, they scored 31 points on the road in Miami and their best receiver Alshon Jeffrey had his best game in months.  While the Eagles are still missing Jordan Howard among other weapons, I expect them to make hay against a Giants defense that is near the bottom at the league at everything, especially pass-defense.  By the end of the game, Carson Wentz will look like an All-Pro once again.

Prediction: Giants 34, Eagles 27

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Born in Chicago, born for Las Vegas, Mackenzie is a graduate of Yale University with a BA in English & Creative Writting. Mackenzie runs AlternativeStats.blog, which seeks to by-pass the minutiae of commonly cited sports statistics and expose the heart of what drives athletic success. After several successful years investing in Las Vegas real estate, Mackenzie is excited to transition in 2019 into betting on sports full time, as well as documenting his thought process as he further learns the craft.

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