23) Phillies Moneyline & Total Have Value

By Noah Rosenstein | Aug 03, 2023, 7:34am | Updated: 1 year ago

Contents

The Phillies and Marlins are each trotting out some newly acquired pieces as they close out their 4-game series on Thursday afternoon. The Phillies are the betting favorites at -125 on the moneyline, while the Marlins’ odds are at +105. The over/under is set at 7.5 runs with -120 odds on the over and +100 on the under. The prediction here is that the PICK win and the PICK hits.

Phillies vs. Marlins Best Bet

Starting pitchers: RHP Michael Lorenzen (5-7, 3.58 ERA) vs. RHP Johnny Cueto (0-2, 5.06 ERA)

This game features plenty of new faces.

The Marlins were one of the most active teams at the trade deadline, retooling their infield and adding some pop to their lineup by bringing in Jake Burger from the White Sox and Josh Bell from the Guardians. They also added David Robertson and Jorge López to bolster their bullpen.

The Phillies’ big trade deadline acquisition was pitcher Michael Lorenzen from the Tigers. A first-time All-Star in 2023, Lorenzen will be making his first start for Philadelphia today. The Phillies also acquired switch-hitting infielder Rodolfo Castro from the Pirates, who could see action as a pinch-hitter.

In addition to their recent acquisitions, Miami also has a relatively new face opposing Lorenzen today with veteran Johnny Cueto making just his 4th start of the season. Cueto, who signed with Miami this past offseason, spent most of the season on the IL with right biceps tightness. He pitched well in his first start after returning, holding Colorado to just 1 run and 4 baserunners over 6 innings. His last outing against Detroit was not as successful, as he allowed 4 earned runs over 6 innings including two homers.

Cueto will be tested early by the top of the Phillies’ lineup. Lefties Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper are a combined 7-for-21 against him, and all 3 of Schwarber’s hits against him have gone out of the park.

The Phillies should have the edge on the mound with Lorenzen, who posted a 1.14 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in July. It will be interesting to see whether Burger and Bell can make an instant impact on the Marlins’ lineup, which has been just 27th in runs scored this season.

These teams have nearly identical advanced metrics offensively entering this game. They both have a 97 wRC+ this season and a 96 mark since July 1. They also have identical marks of 87 against righties since July 1.

With two teams that have played so evenly this season, this pick comes down to trusting Lorenzen to keep up his excellent season on his new team. That advantage in the starting pitching edges this prediction to the Phillies.

With such a low total, we also have to take the over at 7.5 runs. Even with two underperforming offenses, that line is just too low to think about anything else.

Phillies vs. Marlins Prediction: Phillies moneyline (-125), over 7.5 runs (-120)

Note: all metrics above taken before Wednesday’s games

Phillies vs. Marlins Odds

The Phillies are the betting favorites at -125 on the moneyline, while the Marlins’ moneyline odds are at +105.

The Phillies are laying -1.5 runs on the spread at +130 odds, while the Marlins are getting +1.5 at -160 odds.

The total in this game is set at 7.5 runs with -120 odds on the over and +100 on the under.

Phillies vs. Marlins Key Matchups

Here are the key matchups that could decide Phillies vs. Marlins.

Michael Lorenzen vs. Marlins
This game is likely to come down to how well Lorenzen pitches in his Phillies debut. The Phillies moneyline pick in our Phillies vs. Marlins prediction indicates a fair degree of confidence he will pick up where he left off in Detroit.

One factor that could carry over from his time with the Tigers is his home/road splits, as he has much better numbers on the road season. On the road he has a 3.17 ERA and 0.95 WHIP https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=lorenmi01&year=2023&t=p to a 3.92 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in Detroit. That bodes well for his expectations today.

Bullpen battle
Both of these clubs have been solid out of the bullpen this season, but the edge here goes to the Phillies. They have a 3.73 bullpen ERA this season (8th best) compared to the Marlins’ 4.14 (18th).

The Phillies have been even better since July 1, posting a 2.76 mark since that date (2nd best), while the Marlins have remained about average (16th) at 4.31.

Of course, the Fish could see some improvement with their recent reinforcements, but David Robertson has already blown 1 save as a Marlin earlier in this series.

Phillies vs. Marlins Starting Lineups (Projected)

Phillies Starting Lineup
DH Kyle Schwarber (L)
3B Alec Bohm (R)
1B Bryce Harper (L)
RF Nick Castellanos (R)
2B Bryson Stott (L)
SS Trea Turner (R)
LF Brandon Marsh (L)
C Garrett Stubbs (L)
CF Johan Rojas (R)

Marlins Starting Lineup
2B Luis Arraez (L)
DH Jorge Soler (R)
LF Bryan De La Cruz (R)
CF Jazz Chisholm (L)
3B Jake Burger (R)
1B Josh Bell (S)
SS Joey Wendle (L)
RF Jon Berti (R)
C Nick Fortes (R)

Noah Rosenstein

Noah hails from Philadelphia and is a diehard Philly sports fan. He graduated from Penn where he was a sports writer and editor for the student newspaper and also spent a summer covering the Baltimore Orioles for MLB.com. He has been playing fantasy sports since before live stats were a thing, and he has enjoyed learning the nuances of DFS in recent years. As a current resident of Florida, he is hoping the wave of sports betting legalization will eventually reach his home state.