Get Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons player prop picks & odds for the (12/04/2022) matchup.
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Picks
Somehow the Atlanta Falcons (5-7) are still in the hunt for the NFC South as they get set to host the Pittsburgh Steelers (4-7) on Sunday, December 4. Getting a win before their bye week would set up the Falcons to make a real playoff push over the last four weeks.
This game is expected to be a close, relatively low-scoring game, with the Falcons being a slim one-point favorite and an over/under set at 42.5. These offenses both rank in the bottom six in terms of yards per game and the defenses both rank in the bottom eight in the same category. The passing offenses and passing defenses are the biggest weaknesses, but the Falcons have found ways to keep games close and put points on the board with a strong running game.
Will Cordarrelle Patterson and Tyler Allgeier be able to find success this week against the Steelers’ sixth-ranked rushing defense? Or will one of the blue-chip rookie wide receivers in this game – Drake London and George Pickens – be the ones to lead their teams to victory?
Let’s take a look at the player prop bets I like the most in this Steelers vs. Falcons matchup.
Pat Freiermuth over 47.5 receiving yards (-112)
Freiermuth has quietly led the Steelers in targets over the last three weeks since their bye week (23%). He has gone over 47.5 receiving yards in three of the last five weeks and is averaging 52.1 yards per game for the season. The Falcons struggle against tight ends, giving up the 3rd most receptions and 9th most receiving yards to the position. Freiermuth is a good bet to hit the over this week.
Diontae Johnson under 54.5 receiving yards (-115)
While Johnson’s targets are down by two per game from his pro bowl campaign last season, he has still been getting targeted consistently in the Steelers offense this season and leading the team in target. The problem is that it just has not translated to yardage. He is averaging just 45.9 receiving yards per game this season, the lowest since his rookie year. He has topped 54.5 receiving yards just once in the last six games after doing it in four out of five games to start the season.
The one thing working in Johnson’s advantage this week is that the Falcons’ top cornerback, AJ Terrell, may be lining up more on George Pickens, who has been the more dangerous receiver of late. Still, his recent production doesn’t give me much confidence in him putting up over 54.5 yards.
Drake London over 2.5 receptions (-160)
It makes me nervous to bet the over on anything in the Falcons’ passing offense with how run-heavy their offensive scheme is. However, the combination of London’s talent and the matchup against the Steelers’ secondary appeals to me here. The Steelers allow the fourth-most yards and the ninth-most receptions to opposing wide receivers this year. Starting cornerback Levi Wallace has struggled this season, while their other outside cornerback, Ahkello Witherspoon, has missed six of the last seven games with a hamstring injury.
London has at least three receptions in eight of his 12 games this season and is averaging 3.4 catches per game. The prop line of 2.5 is his lowest of the season despite a good matchup with the Steelers. The Falcons have to throw the ball sometimes, and when they do London is the most likely target, especially with Kyle Pitts now out for the season. London is too talented to be held below three catches this week for the third consecutive week.