Pittsburgh Steelers Vs. Baltimore Ravens NFL Player Props & Picks (1/1/23)

Get Pittsburgh Steelers Vs. Baltimore Ravens player prop picks & odds for the (1/1/23) matchup

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Pittsburgh Steelers Vs. Baltimore Ravens Player Prop Picks

When the Steelers and Ravens face off on Sunday Night Football, there’s plenty at stake. Baltimore still controls its own destiny in the AFC North with a Week 18 game against the Bengals looming large while the Steelers are hanging onto slight playoff hopes as they currently have a 3% chance of making the postseason, according to FiveThirtyEight.

In this article, I’ll break down my favorite player prop angles in this game. Keep in mind that I won’t wind up playing every prop in these articles, and you can find all of my official plays on our main NFL player props page. You can also get more coverage on this and every Week 17 game on our YouTube channel. Don’t forget to use the search tool above to compare odds from different sportsbooks. Let’s get to work.

Gus Edwards Over 39.5 Rushing Yards (-110 DraftKings)

The first thing you need to know here is that the Steelers’ run defense is excellent. After a down 2021 season, Pittsburgh brought in Brian Flores to be the senior defensive assistant and linebackers coach, and he’s helped turn things around in a big way. The Steelers now rank sixth in run defense DVOA and fifth in yards per carry allowed.

That being said, I still expect the rushing volume to be very high for Baltimore here. Last week, the team had 44 rushing attempts compared to 17 passing attempts, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar split with Lamar Jackson still sidelined. Tyler Huntley is a severely limiting passer for this offense.

Edwards has over 50 rushing yards in six of the seven games he’s played this season, including 66 yards on 13 carries against this Steelers defense earlier in the year. That’s strong proof of concept and it’s worth relying on when making this play. Edwards is averaging 5.2 YPC this season, and he’ll see the volume necessary to hit the over here.

Najee Harris Over 11.5 Receiving Yards (-115 DraftKings)

Prior to last week, the Steelers had been using Jaylen Warren on most of their third downs and Najee Harris’s passing volume had dissipated. However, he had six catches for 42 yards against the Raiders in that crucial Sunday Night Football game.

It’s worth noting that almost all of that came on the final drive of the game with the Steelers in a two-minute drill. Harris had five targets with three catches for 30 yards on that drive alone. However, Harris’s nine targets were a season high, and his reliability in that situation should earn him some more passing volume this week.

The Ravens rank 21st in DVOA against running backs, allowing the ninth-most receptions and eighth-most receiving yards to the position. Harris only had two receptions for 17 yards in that matchup earlier this season, but it’s worth considering his receiving yards in this game given the importance of this matchup.

Diontae Johnson Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)

The Ravens’ run defense has been outstanding since acquiring Roquan Smith, as they rank second in rushing success rate and EPA allowed since Week 11. As such, the Steelers will need to throw the ball more this week. Diontae Johnson has a 23.1% target share in games with Kenny Pickett under center for the full time.

Johnson has also had a lot of success against the Ravens in his career, averaging 5.6 catches for 53 yards in his seven games against them and going over this receiving yardage prop in four of those seven. Johnson has 60+ receiving yards in four straight games and he’s averaging 76 receiving yards over that span.

With injuries in the secondary, most notably Marcus Peters’s absence, the Ravens have been starting 2021 third-round pick Brandon Stephens on the outside. Stephens has a PFF coverage grade of just 47.7, which ranks 104th out of 111 qualified corners. Johnson will have a clear edge against him in this game.