Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns NFL Player Props & Picks (9/22/22)

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns Player Prop Picks

After a barnburner on Thursday Night Football last week, it’s not the most exciting matchup for Week 3. However, that doesn’t mean there can’t be betting value on the board, particularly in the player props department. In this article, I’ll break down my best bets for player props for this matchup between the Steelers and Browns. You can use the player prop search tool above to find the best values for these props in your market.

George Pickens Under 2.5 Receptions

I was a huge fan of Pickens in the draft process, and I believe he has a bright future ahead of him, but this offense isn’t doing him any favors at the moment as he has just one catch in each of his first two games. Pittsburgh has only scored 27 points through eight quarters of regulation play, and Matt Canada has proven to be mostly inept as an offensive coordinator.

The Steelers’ offense simply isn’t explosive. Pickens’s 23-yard reception against the Patriots last week was the only explosive play of the day for them. Mitchell Trubisky has only completed ten passes of over 20 air yards through two weeks compared to 15 at or behind the line of scrimmage.

If Pittsburgh’s plan is to keep the pocket clean for Trubisky, it’s been working – he’s only been sacked four times while attempting 71 passes through the first two games. However, the lack of explosiveness is a death sentence for their season as Trubisky’s 5.1 yards per attempt average is the worst of any quarterback with 15+ attempts.

At a certain point, I expect Pickens to become more involved, but it’s hard to have confidence in Matt Canada, and this likely isn’t the spot where they will undergo a significant offensive overhaul as they are on the road on a short week against a divisional opponent with a low over-under total.

Pat Freiermuth Over 3.5 Receptions

In the Steelers’ low-octane, short-area offense, Pat Freiermuth has been the man so far. Freiermuth has 17 targets through two games – that’s more than all but two tight ends and tied with receivers like Michael Thomas and Marquise Brown. His usage has been elite as the Steelers have looked to throw near the line of scrimmage often.

This early in the season, it’s difficult to glean meaningful insights based on matchups. However, in Freiermuth’s lone game against the Browns last season, he came up with five receptions. He’s also gone over the 3.5 mark in six straight games and in 12 of his last 14. I wouldn’t be racing to play his yardage total – he had four catches for a measly 22 yards last week – but I’m willing to bet on his continued involvement.

Jacoby Brissett Longest Completion Under 32.5 Yards

I’ll give Jacoby Brissett some credit – he’s been more efficient to start this season than I expected. His adjusted completion percentage of 75.4% ranks 13th among all starting quarterbacks this year per PFF, and he ranks in the top-12 for QBR and EPA. I certainly didn’t expect that kind of start.

However, when you take a closer look, it’s evident that the Browns are doing everything they can to protect their clearly limited quarterback. Brissett has only attempted four passes of 20+ yards downfield through two games per PFF, and he has three turnover-worthy plays on those four passes.

As you can see in the Next Gen Stats charts below, Brissett’s passing attempts have been focused primarily within ten yards of the line of scrimmage. When he has pushed the ball further downfield, he hasn’t been successful. The under has hit on this prop in two straight games, and I don’t expect the Browns to want Brissett to push the ball downfield this week with All-Pro safety Minkah Fitzpatrick patrolling on the back end.

Steelers Vs. Browns Player Prop Picks Video