The Steelers and Chiefs will be the Sunday Night Football game for the opening Wild Card Round, and viewers will be hopeful that this game provides a more competitive, watchable product than we saw when the Chiefs won 36-10 a few weeks ago. While this game carries the largest spread of the weekend and could turn into a blowout, we still found some solid props value on the board. You can use the player prop search tool below to find the best odds for player props in this game in your particular market.
Pittsburgh Steelers Vs. Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Search Tool
Darrel Williams Over 11.5 Rushing Attempts and 56.5 Rushing Yards
Darrel Williams has started seven games this season, as he’s expected to do again this week with Clyde Edwards-Helaire sidelined. In Williams’s seven starts, he averaged 12.8 rushing attempts for 49.8 yards – not exactly the most stellar numbers. However, he has one game with five carries for 20 yards and one with seven carries for 17 yards in that span. This week, Williams is facing perhaps the easiest matchup in the NFL for running backs as the Steelers allowed 146.1 rushing yards per game during the regular season, the most in the NFL. Derrick Gore and Jerick McKinnon will see some involvement, but Williams is the team’s most trusted runner and will take over the bell-cow role in the playoffs so long as CEH is out.
Pat Freiermuth Over 3.5 Receptions and 30.5 Receiving Yards
One of the lone bright spots for the Steelers offense this season, rookie tight end Pat Freiermuth has played very well during his rookie season. Freiermuth has averaged 3.8 catches per game and gone over this line in 10 of 16 games. He’s also averaging 31.1 yards per game and has gone over this line in 9 of 16 games. The Chiefs have been vulnerable against the tight end as they rank just 18th in pass defense DVOA against TEs and have allowed 6.7 catches and 53.2 yards per game to the position. With Diontae Johnson and Najee Harris both banged up, I expect Freiermuth to take on a more significant role in the offense this week.
Patrick Mahomes Under 277.5 Passing Yards
The Chiefs have been excellent this season, but it often hasn’t been due to any dominance from Patrick Mahomes. He finished with just 258 passing yards against the Steelers this year, and while Pittsburgh’s defense has had its fair share of issues, they have only allowed 215.1 passing yards per game, the ninth-fewest in the league. Mahomes has gone under this yardage mark in six of his last seven games, and the Chiefs likely won’t need a massive performance from him to win this game comfortably. With Tyreek Hill also not at 100%, I have no problem banking on a modest game from Mahomes.
Travis Kelce Anytime TD Scorer
If you’re looking for a touchdown scorer to include in parlays this weekend, Kelce is my favorite target from this game. Kelce has scored four touchdowns over his last three games, and he’s one of the best red-zone threats in the NFL. With Clyde Edwards-Helaire out and Tyreek Hill likely limited, Mahomes should look for Kelce a bit more frequently in the red zone. Kelce has 2+ red-zone targets in three of his last four games, and the Steelers defense doesn’t have the secondary personnel to keep him at bay if Mahomes looks his way at the goal line. Getting Kelce at even odds feels very gracious, and you can look at the 2+ touchdowns prop as well.