Get Pittsburgh Steelers Vs. Miami Dolphins player prop picks & odds for the (10/23/22) matchup
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Pittsburgh Steelers Vs. Miami Dolphins Player Prop Picks
On Sunday Night Football in Week 7, we’re expecting to watch Tua Tagovailoa and Kenny Pickett face off in an AFC matchup. Both of these quarterbacks are coming out of the concussion protocol, so be sure to pay attention to the injury reports in case we get a surprise quarterback switch. This article will focus on the highest-value player props from this game. You can use the Steelers vs. Dolphins player prop search tool above to compare odds from different sportsbooks. Let’s get to work.
Kenny Pickett Over 223.5 Passing Yards (-115 DraftKings)
The beginning of Kenny Pickett’s career has had its ups and downs, but there’s been one thing that’s really stood out – he’s been excellent against the blitz. The Bills attempted to blitz Pickett on a ton of plays in his start a couple of weeks ago, but he completed seven of nine passes against the blitz. He had a 7.1 yards per attempt rate and a 55% success rate on those throws. Before he got hurt against the Buccaneers, he had similar success against their blitz.
Pickett is currently graded as the fifth-best quarterback under pressure this season behind only Patrick Mahomes, Andy Dalton, Josh Allen, and Teddy Bridgewater. That should set him up for success against a Miami defense that blitzes at the eighth-highest rate in the league. Despite that high blitz rate, they get pressure at the third-worst rate, so Pickett should have time to hang in the pocket.
The Dolphins’ defense has struggled against the pass, but they rank 7th in rushing DVOA and 11th in yards per carry allowed. I don’t expect Najee Harris to be very successful on the ground, and Pickett will be called on to complete passes against Miami’s 31st-ranked pass defense by DVOA. You can target his completions prop if you prefer, but I’ll keep it simple and make the official play on his yardage.
George Pickens Longest Reception Over 18.5 Yards (-114 FanDuel)
I tried to go back to the well with this prop last week, but Kenny Pickett getting knocked out of the game early resulted in Mitchell Trubisky returning to the field. Now with Pickett back in action, I’m happy to go back to Pickens in this spot. Prior to last week, Pickens had hit the over on this line in four straight games and averaged a long completion of 28.75 yards over that span.
With the Dolphins’ blitz-heavy nature, it often leaves them vulnerable over the top, which is music to Pickens’ ears. The Dolphins have allowed 7.5 yards per pass attempt this year, which ranks 28th in the NFL, and they’ve allowed a reception of 20+ yards in every game this season. There’s no reason Pickens can’t clear this number, and I love his yardage and touchdown props as well.
Tyreek Hill Over 80.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
The Dolphins’ passing offense hasn’t been the same without Tua Tagovailoa, but he’s expected to make his return on Sunday night. That will be music to the ears of all of the team’s pass-catchers, but it’s worth noting that Jaylen Waddle is listed as questionable due to a shoulder issue. Even if he does play, this game profiles as a great matchup for Tyreek Hill.
With 116.8 receiving yards per game, Tyreek Hill is having an Offensive Player of the Year-caliber season and he hasn’t even had Tua in the lineup for much of the year. The Steelers rank just 29th in pressure rate, so Tua will have plenty of time in the pocket to throw against a secondary that’s allowing the eighth-most yards per pass in the league. Hill should continue putting the league on notice in primetime.