Get Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Philadelphia Eagles player prop picks & odds for the (10/30/22) matchup
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Philadelphia Eagles Player Prop Picks
The Philadelphia Eagles (6-0) are looking to stay undefeated when they host the Pittsburgh Steelers (2-5) on Sunday, October 30. The Eagles are heavy favorites with a spread of -10.5 and the over/under for this matchup is set at 43.5. When it comes to player prop bets, this would imply that there should be some opportunities for the over on Eagles players and the under on Steelers players.
Let’s take a look at the player prop bets I like in this Steelers vs. Eagles matchup.
Jalen Hurts over 229.5 passing yards (-115)
This is a relatively low number for Hurts to clear, as expectations for his passing yards are being depressed by the expected game script and the fact that he has averaged 199.3 passing yards per game over the last three games (252.3 season-long). If the game script plays out the way many Eagles games have this season, where they jump out to an early lead and then shift to a run-focused, ball-control offense in the second half, then the trend of Hurts’ low passing numbers might continue.
But as I wrote in my game preview, I anticipate the Eagles will want to put together a complete game and keep the offense humming for four quarters in this matchup. If the Steelers put up any kind of fight, then the Eagles might not have a choice. And the matchup is favorable for the Eagles’ passing attack.
The Steelers are 29th against the pass this season and give up the most yards in the league to wide receivers (209.6 per game). They are also banged up in the secondary, with starting corner Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring) and backups Levi Wallace (shoulder) and Josh Jackson (groin) all on the injury report as questionable. Witherspoon was a full participant in Wednesday’s practice which bodes well for his chances to play, but it’s no guarantee.
The Eagles should be able to attack that secondary with their dynamic wide receiver duo of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, who are each in the top 20 among wide receivers in both catches and receiving yards per game this season. Hurts has surpassed 229.5 passing yards in four out of six games this year. One of the games he did not was played in a torrential downpour that forced a very run-heavy offense.
Opposing quarterbacks facing the Steelers have hit the over on their passing yards prop line in five out of six games this season. It might not even matter if the game script is not favorable to a high number of passing attempts. Hurts will get back on track with his passing this week and easily clear 229.5 yards.
Miles Sanders over 66.5 rushing yards (-115)
Yes, I am taking the over on both Hurts’ passing yards and Sanders’ rushing yards this week. Both numbers could hit, regardless of game script, and this is also a bit of a hedge on Hurts’ passing yards pick.
In a contract year, Sanders is having the best season of his career, averaging a career-high 80.8 yards per game (seventh in the league) on a career-high 17.5 carries per game (4.6 yards per carry). The Steelers are giving up 99.4 yards per game to opposing running backs. Sanders has hit the over in four out of six games this year, while the opposing running backs facing the Steelers have hit the over in five out of six games.
Sanders’ production and touches have been evenly split between first halves and second halves this season, so he stands a good chance to see consistent volume regardless of game script, which makes this a fairly safe choice for a prop bet.
Kenny Pickett over 218.5 passing yards (-115)
Pickett has hit the over on his passing yards in two of his three starts this season, and in the one game he didn’t he had to leave the game early with a concussion. In his two starts that he has played 100% of the snaps, Pickett is averaging 292 passing yards, and perhaps more importantly he is averaging a whopping 48 pass attempts.
Game script has been part of the reason for that high volume, as the Steelers have been trailing for most of Pickett’s two starts this season. They are expected to be trailing for most of this game as well. The Steelers have also been struggling to run the ball, with the 27th-ranked rushing offense in the league. Najee Harris’ fantasy owners know what I’m talking about.
Pickett is fourth in the league among qualifying passers with a 68.5% completion percentage, and part of the reason for that is he has not been throwing the ball downfield. Pickett is dead last in yards per completion (8.9) and 27th in air yards per completion (5.1).
The Steelers’ dink-and-dunk style of offense with him under center could be a recipe for success against the Eagles’ defense. Defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon tends to shift to a conservative style of defense with a big lead, designed to prevent big plays while giving up easy completions on underneath routes. If Pickett is attempting a high volume of those types of passes in the second half and completing them at a high rate, that should lead to him surpassing 218.5 passing yards.
The Eagles have not allowed any opposing quarterbacks to hit the over on their passing yards yet this season, but that changes this week.
Kenny Pickett over 1.5 interceptions (+180)
Another consequence of a high number of pass attempts by Pickett in this game is a high number of opportunities for interceptions, which has been a bugaboo for the rookie quarterback early in his career. He has thrown seven interceptions in 127 pass attempts (5.5%, 2nd in the league). While some of those interceptions were not his fault, the blame doesn’t matter when it comes to betting the over on his interceptions prop.
The Eagles’ defense is second in the league with nine interceptions, and they generate pressure on 25.2% of opposing quarterbacks’ dropbacks despite being one of the least blitz-heavy teams in the league, which means they have plenty of defenders in coverage to take advantage of errant throws created by that pressure.
With +180 odds, I like the chances that a combination of Pickett’s high volume and the Eagles’ high-pressure, ball-hawking defense leads to at least two interceptions by Pickett.