Get Raiders vs. Broncos player prop picks & odds for the (9/10/23) matchup.
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Raiders vs. Broncos Player Prop Picks
The Las Vegas Raiders visit the Denver Broncos for an AFC West battle in week 1 of the 2023 NFL season. Russell Wilson looks to have a bounce back season in his second year with the Broncos under new head coach Sean Payton, while Jimmy Garoppolo makes his Raiders debut.
Let’s take a look at the player prop betting odds in this contest and pick the best Raiders vs Broncos player prop bets for this week 1 matchup.
Russell Wilson Over 219.5 passing yards (-118 at Caesars)
We’re buying the Russell Wilson renaissance this season, and it’s going to start with a big first game against the awful Raiders defense.
Las Vegas was 28th in total defense and 29th in passing defense last season. They were also 30th in EPA per play allowed and 31st in EPA per dropback allowed. Simply put, they were really bad on defense, especially against the pass, and they didn’t do a whole lot to shore up the defense this offseason.
One of the big storylines of this NFL season will be whether Sean Payton can help Russell Wilson revive his career and with it, the Broncos’ hopes of competing for a playoff spot in the loaded AFC. Time will tell if that will be the case, but it would be surprising if Wilson is somehow worse than last year.
Even in a bad year, Wilson still averaged 235 passing yards per game last season, well above his prop line of 219.5 for this game. In his two games against Las Vegas last year, Wilson threw for 237 and 247 yards.
While the Broncos suffered some injuries in their wide receiver corps during training camp, Jerry Jeudy is expected to return for week 1. With Jeudy, Courtland Sutton and rookie Marvin Mims Jr., the Broncos still have a solid stable of pass catchers with whom Wilson can work. Free agent acquisition Samaje Perine is also effective at catching the ball out of the backfield.
The biggest risk with this pick is the Broncos’ defense shutting down the Raiders and limiting the need for Wilson to air it out the whole game. But even if the game script does play out that way, there should still be enough passing volume for Wilson to go over 219.5 passing yards.
Javonte Williams under 50.5 rushing yards (-125 at PointsBet)
Sean Payton said that running back Javonte Williams is “going to play a big role” in this game.
Broncos HC Sean Payton on RB Javonte Williams' expected involvement in Week 1:
"Look, he’s going to play a big role. I haven’t put together a [snap] number for him. … He’s moving well. He’s strong and healthy."
— Aric DiLalla (@AricDiLalla) September 6, 2023
We’ll believe it when we see it.
Williams is coming off a major knee – he tore three ligaments, not just the ACL – and while his progress reportedly has been smooth and ahead of schedule, we still have a hard time believing the Broncos will not ease him up to a full workload.
Williams did play in one preseason game and was on the field for 12 of the 23 snaps that the Broncos’ starters played in that game. He touched the ball on 7 of those 12 snaps (4 catches, 3 carries). If his usage in this game mirrors that preseason game, then he would likely have enough volume to surpass 50 rushing yards. But again, we’ll believe it when we see it.
Until then, there is value on the under of Williams’ rushing production.