This week’s Monday Night Football matchup between the Raiders and Chiefs provides plenty of excitement as we will watch two divisional rivals face off against one another. With star power like Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Davante Adams on display, there are plenty of opportunities to find player prop value for a Same Game Parlay. In this article, I’ll build an SGP for this game that combines correlation and probable outcomes to find value. Let’s get to work.
*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Raiders Vs. Chiefs Same Game Parlay Monday Night Football
The first bet I want to add to our SGP is the Raiders +7.5 in this game. I already anticipate getting some backlash on this pick as I know it won’t be popular to fade Patrick Mahomes after the showing he had last week, but I see strong value on the Las Vegas side in this game for a few reasons. First, this is a potentially tough spot for the Chiefs as they are coming off that game against the Buccaneers and could be looking ahead to next week’s meeting with the Bills.
The Raiders have gotten unlucky to start this season as they had that absurd second-half collapse against the Cardinals and finished just 2-6 in the red zone against the Titans in a two-point loss. They are also getting healthier at the right time with Hunter Renfrow expected to return for this matchup to round out one of the best skill position rooms in football with Davante Adams, Darren Waller, and Josh Jacobs. I also believe the new coaching staff is a significant upgrade over last year, especially with Patrick Graham replacing Gus Bradley as the defensive coordinator.
In addition, the Raiders can exploit one of the Chiefs’ biggest weaknesses with Adams. After losing cornerback Charvarius Ward in free agency, Kansas City ranks 29th in DVOA against #1 wide receivers this season. There arguably isn’t a better wide receiver in the NFL than Adams, and he can exploit their secondary repeatedly. Adams has been a bit hit or miss this year, but as he builds comfortability in a new offense, I expect him to become even more consistent. For this SGP, I’m taking Adams over 79.5 receiving yards and anytime touchdown for extra value.
On the Chiefs’ side, I like targeting Travis Kelce in this matchup. He’s gone over his listed line of 72.5 receiving yards in two of four games this season, and he had a 119-yard receiving game against the Raiders last season. With the Raiders playing more Cover 2 defense, look for Kelce to be even more of a consistent read in the short and intermediate areas. I’ll also grab Kelce’s touchdown prop despite the -130 juice as he’s scored in two straight games and nine of his last ten dating back to last season.
Put it all together, and this is the SGP we’re looking at:
- Las Vegas Raiders +7.5 (-118)
- Davante Adams Over 79.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
- Davante Adams Anytime Touchdown Scorer (100)
- Travis Kelce Over 72.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
- Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-135)
Full SGP Odds: +1320 ($10 wins $132.06)