Rams Vs. 49ers (10/3/22) Monday Night Football Same Game Parlay Strategy + Picks
It’s hard to believe that Week 4 of the NFL season is almost over, but we have one more game on deck between the Rams and 49ers. While this may not be a shootout in primetime, we can find some great value in the Same Game Parlay (SGP) department for these bitter rivals. With SGPs, we’re looking to find correlations on the board between different outcomes. Let’s size up our options for this game.
*Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook
Rams Vs. 49ers NFL Week 4 Monday Night Football Same Game Parlay
While this may not be the most high-scoring, exhilarating shootout, we can find value in the SGP market starting with the Rams Moneyline. I grabbed the Rams +2.5 earlier in the week, and I like them to win this game outright as the 49ers will be without Trent Williams, their All-Pro left tackle, and Elijah Mitchell, their starting running back. You can get the Rams Moneyline at +104 on FanDuel.
Next, I’m adding Cooper Kupp, perhaps the best wide receiver in football, to our SGP. His odds to finish with 100+ yards sit at +116 on FanDuel, and I love those odds. I locked in Kupp over 8.5 receptions in our player props article, but FanDuel only offers yardage props for SGP. Nevertheless, Kupp has 100+ yards in two of his three games this season, and Matthew Stafford will rely on him heavily in a hostile environment.
I’ll also include Kupp to score a touchdown as I see him as the most likely player on either team to score in this game. FanDuel sees it the same way, and his odds sit at -110. While I don’t typically love betting on minus odds touchdown scorers, it makes sense in this setting given the player involved. Kupp has scored in every game this season and in nine straight games dating back to the end of last season.
On the 49ers side, I expect this to be a difficult game without the stabilizing presence of Trent Williams on an offensive line that had already been struggling to overcome two key losses from last season. With that in mind, I’m targeting two unders on key 49ers players as I expect them to perform worse than the market expectation.
First, I’m taking the under on 225.5 passing yards for Jimmy Garoppolo. He has hit the over on that prop in just one of his last five games, and while he barely scraped to the over in the NFC Championship, I don’t see him being able to replicate that performance. I prefer the under on his passing completions for this game given the 49ers’ receivers propensity to generate YAC, but FanDuel doesn’t offer that as part of an SGP, so this is the next best option.
Finally, I’m taking the under on Deebo Samuel’s rushing yards in this game. He was held to just six yards on five carries against the Broncos last week, and he typically relies on one or two explosive runs to hit the over on this prop when he does it. I don’t see that happening against the Rams who rank first in rushing EPA allowed and are generally a very disciplined rushing defense.
Put it all together, and we have a juicy SGP with plenty of correlation:
- Los Angeles Rams Moneyline (+104)
- Cooper Kupp 100+ Receiving Yards (+116)
- Cooper Kupp Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-110)
- Jimmy Garoppolo Under 225.5 Passing Yards (-125)
- Deebo Samuel Under 29.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
Full SGP Odds: +1608 ($10 wins $160.80)
