Get Baltimore Ravens Vs. Cincinnati Bengals player prop picks & odds for the (1/15/23) matchup
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Baltimore Ravens Vs. Cincinnati Bengals Player Prop Picks
On Sunday night, we’ll see the Ravens and Bengals face off for the third time this season and the second time in as many weeks. In Week 18, the Bengals earned a 27-16 win over the Ravens in convincing fashion.
In this article, I’ll break down the top player props to target from this game. You can check out the Lineups YouTube channel for more coverage of this and every game on the Wild Card slate. Be sure to use the player prop search tool above to compare odds from different sportsbooks, as well. Let’s get to work.
Roquan Smith Over 9.5 Tackles + Assists (-130 BetMGM)
Roquan Smith had a whopping 16 tackles + assists against the Bengals last week as he absolutely dominated the short area of the field. In the eight games that Smith has played full-time with the Ravens, he’s averaging just over 10 tackles + assists
When the Bengals and Ravens played last week, Cincy held a big lead throughout, and the books are expecting a similar result here as they are 10-point home favorites. While you’d expect that to mean a heavy run script for the Bengals, it was actually the opposite.
The Bengals still had a 65% pass play rate last week, which would be the highest in the NFL over the full season. They peppered the short area of the field with passes as 57.2% of Burrow’s pass attempts came within ten yards of the line of scrimmage.
I don’t expect that to change this week as the Bengals are going to be without their starting right tackle and right guard, La’el Collins and Alex Cappa. Burrow’s time in the pocket will be more limited and they’ll need to pass in the underneath area more frequently.
Since Smith’s arrival, the Ravens rank top five in run defense DVOA and EPA, and his tackling prowess earned him a massive contract extension. Look for him to make a statement in the postseason.
Joe Mixon Under 83.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-109 Caesars)
Along with my love for Roquan Smith comes a fade of Joe Mixon, the player likely to be tackled by him on multiple occasions. Mixon has cleared a 60% snap threshold in just one of the four games he’s played since returning from injury in Week 14, and that’s mostly due to Samaje Perine carving out a significant role in the offense.
Over that four-week span, Mixon is averaging 84 rushing + receiving yards per game, which is right in line with this prop. However, the Ravens held him to just 68 yards from scrimmage last week as he averaged just 2.5 YPC. The Ravens’ elite run defense won’t allow him to pick up many yards on the ground.
With that limited rushing production, Mixon’s yards would come from the passing game, but his route participation is under 50% in every game since returning from the injury. Perine has been the go-to guy in two-minute drill and long down and distance situations.
Mark Andrews Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+310 FanDuel)
We had a very interesting discussion about Mark Andrews in our player props video for this game, and there are clear pros and cons to targeting his lines in this situation. However, I had to make mention of the vast discrepancy in odds for his touchdown prop.
Andrews is currently listed at +310 on FanDuel to score a touchdown, whereas he’s at +195 on Caesars and +130 on BetMGM. That gap alone is worth pursuing as it’s a massive difference in value across the board.
However, for the prop itself, I’m intrigued by Andrews in this game. He sat out last week along with Tyler Huntley, but the Bengals allowed Isaiah Likely to catch eight passes for 103 yards against them despite Anthony Brown being the starter.
The Bengals have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to tight ends over the past month, and Andrews ranks fourth at his position in red zone targets, so there could be value here if you’re looking to target a touchdown prop.