Ravens Vs. Buccaneers (10/27/22) Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay Strategy + SGP Picks

It’s hard to believe that we’re already into Week 8 of the NFL season, but we have an intriguing Thursday Night Football game that provides value in the Same Game Parlay (SGP) market. The Buccaneers and Ravens face off as two teams that are in need of a win to bolster their playoff chances. In this article, I’ll look into the best SGP options for this game. Let’s get to work.

*Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook

NFL Week 8 Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay

This one is going to take some courage from you, but I’m starting my SGP with the Buccaneers Moneyline at -124. Despite the Ravens receiving around 80% of bets in this game, the line has moved from Ravens -2 to Buccaneers -1. There are plenty of reasons to like them as a contrarian home team, and I like the ability to fade the public on a primetime game.

In addition to the Buccaneers Moneyline, I’m taking the over at 45.5 points. People will blindly bet Thursday Night Football unders these days, and these teams have both trended heavily to the under, but respected money has pushed the total from 43.5 points to 45.5 points. Thursday Night Football unders are 17-8 (68%) since 2019, but both teams have significant defensive injuries they’re working through.

If we’re taking the over, we have to play some overs on player props. I wrote about Chris Godwin over 6.5 receptions being one of my favorite props from this game, but FanDuel doesn’t allow you to include receptions props in SGPs. Instead, we’ll take his receiving yards at 70.5. He’s only been over that number once this year, but the matchup is delightful.

The Ravens’ pass defense ranks 29th in success rate allowed overall, but they’ve been particularly poor at defending slot receivers. Rookie fourth-rounder Damarion Williams has allowed the highest passer rating among slot cornerbacks with 40+ coverage snaps per PFF, and Godwin should be able to take advantage with his elite target share. He has 25 targets over the last two weeks, which is the third-most in the NFL over that span.

In our player props article, I took Gus Edward’s rushing prop, but we’ll mix it up a bit here and take Lamar Jackson over 62.5 rushing yards. He’s been over 58 yards in each of his last five games with 8.2 yards per attempt, and he will likely need to run the ball more this week due to the injuries to both Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman. Even if Andrews and Bateman play, Jackson’s passing efficiency has been down lately.

The Buccaneers’ run defense has been more vulnerable than we’ve become accustomed to as they’re below-average in both rushing EPA and success rate allowed. They also rank 19th in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks. While their secondary is banged up, the Ravens aren’t healthy enough in the receiving corps to take advantage, and I’ll bet on Jackson having a big game on the ground.

Put it all together, and we have a four-leg SGP with plenty of value:

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML (-124)
• Over 45.5 Total Match Points (-110)
• Chris Godwin Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
• Lamar Jackson Over 62.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

Full SGP Odds: +1405 ($10 wins $140.57)