RBC Canadian Open Odds & Golf DFS Picks: 4 Longshots, Including Including Justin Rose
The PGA Tour’s best have congregated together for one last week of prep before the third Major of the year, as this week’s festivities bring us to TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley for the 2025 RBC Canadian Open. Last week’s PGA Tour golf DFS picks article identified contenders Rickie Fowler and Akshay Bhatia as deep sleepers. We’ll look to keep that momentum going into this week.
A brand new venue on the PGA TOUR, TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley, will be an exciting host venue to watch, offering a great viewing experience for fans and panoramic views of the city of Toronto. For the players, it figures to be a bomber’s paradise, where the longest hitters with trending iron play are best situated to generate scoring opportunities on this long, par-70 setup.
In this article, we’ll look for diamonds in the rough ahead of the 2025 RBC Canadian Open.
RBC Canadian Open Odds
TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley: Course Introduction
This week will mark TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley’s first time hosting a PGA TOUR event, so it remains to be seen how exactly it will stand up against a professional field. It has hosted a Korn Ferry Tour once before, in which bombers like Taylor Pendrith and Jake Knapp were able to separate through a combination of Driving Distance and trending approach play.
An extensive renovation project was undertaken last year to offer more defense to TPC Toronto this time around; however, with negligible penalty around the fairways and plenty of length to its par 4s and par 3s, it still seems as though it will be an advantage for bombers with trending irons once again. That makes Rory McIlroy an intimidating favorite, but there are plenty of viable contenders worth considering deeper down the board this week.
RBC Canadian Open Course Specs
For a deeper dive into the course, read my RBC Canadian Open preview.
RBC Canadian Open: Golf DFS Picks & Longshot Bets
To identify “value” any given week on the PGA Tour, I find it’s best first to understand the consensus key stat profile. Then, take a stance on the elements of the tournament that may go overlooked. At the RBC Canadian Open, Recent Form, SG: APP, and Event History are consensus key areas factored into each player’s price.
From a golf DFS picks perspective, I will take a stance primarily on the importance of Comp Course History and Approach Proximity from over 175 yards. These two areas, in particular, have proven to show a sticky trend of repeat contenders, so I’ll look to whittle down my player pool to those with multiple high finishes at Muirfield Village in the past and who have demonstrated a strong fit on comp Jack Nicklaus designs earlier this season.
Below, find my favorite value PGA golf fantasy picks and longshots for the 2025 RBC Canadian Open. Stats pulled across the Last 36 Rounds unless otherwise noted. Their odds of winning the event are also shown.
Justin Rose:
Justin Rose proved that at the age of 44, his game can still match Rory McIlroy’s, as he fell just short in a playoff at The Masters five starts ago. That marked his third top-10 finish of the season, and yet you can still find Rose’s odds at 20x the price of McIlroy this week. It’s the veteran’s ability to elevate his game in the biggest moments that draws me to him this week, as each of those top10 finishes in 2025 (The Masters, Arnold Palmer Invitational, AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am) have come in signature events.
While the RBC Canadian Open is not labeled as a signature event, it will carry a similar atmosphere, as Canada’s national open has been known to bring the energy. Rose has relished that fan atmosphere over the years at this event, finishing top-10 in each of his last two appearances at the RBC Canadian Open.
Matti Schmid:
Falling one stroke shy of Ben Griffin at the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge, Schmid’s game continues to trend upwards despite the long price this week. That runner-up finish in Fort Worth marked his third top-10 over his last five starts. As a bomber (top-25 in Driving Distance), it’s encouraging to see that Schmid has had success on shorter venues like Colonial CC, as he’ll be able to tap into an extra gear on a more open venue like TPC Toronto.
I do expect bombers to have an advantage this week, but that’s just the first piece of the puzzle at TPC Toronto. Players will also need to come in with control of their long irons, as this layout will draw ample approaches from beyond 150 yards. That is where Schmid has done his most damage, as he ranks No. 1 in the field in Prox: 150+ over the last 36 rounds. Schmid will be a fixture on my betting card and fantasy lineups this week as he looks to continue his momentum into this week.
Nicolai Hojgaard:
A relatively disappointing 2025 season has relegated Hojgaard deep into the longshot range of RNC Canadian Open odds this week, but reading between the lines of his latest finishes, he seems to be due for a breakout soon. TPC Toronto will reward the longest players with the longest carry distance, given the lack of penal hazards around the fairways, which should play perfectly to his strengths. Hojgaard ranks top-15 in Driving Distance in this field, and has delivered his best results this season (2nd at the Zurich Classic, 8th at the Mexico Open) on open, driver-heavy courses.
Like Schmid, it’s Hojgaard’s ability to separate with his irons that draws me to him this week. In his latest start at the PGA Championship (another long course with ample approaches from beyond 150 yards), Hojgaard ranked No. 13 in SG: Approach. A proven winner on the DP World Tour, contending this week could go a long way in building his case to play at Bethpage for Team Europe later this fall.
Karl Vilips:
My favorite longshot on the board this week, Vilips has continued to impress me with his all-around game in his first full year on TOUR. The rookie from Australia wasted no time transitioning to life on the PGA TOUR, picking up a win at the Puerto Rico Open in his third career start. Not dissimilar to TPC Toronto, Grand Reserve was a long and open course where bombers were able to take a driver-heavy approach and separate with their distance alone. With that in mind, he should be able to channel a similar game plan at the RBC Canadian Open, as Vilips ranks top-25 in the field in Driving Distance.
Beyond the sheer distance advantage he brings, Vilips has continued to develop his game from tee to green as well. In his latest start at the Charles Schwab Challenge, he proved he can also maneuver around a positional venue like Colonial CC, gaining across all four strokes gained categories en route to a T11 finish. I’m very high long term on Vilips’ game, and believe this is an ideal time and place for him to continue the momentum of his strong recent play.
Best of luck if you choose to roster these RBC Canadian Open golf DFS picks!
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