New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers NFL Player Props & Picks (9/24/23)

New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers kicks off this Sunday at 1:00pm EST in Green Bay as a home game for the Packers. The Saints are currently a +1.5 underdog and +105 on the moneyline while the total is set at 42.5. Jordan Love faces his toughest defense yet while AJ Dillon is poised for a big game, all possessing value as New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers player props.

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Jordan Love has given Packers fans relief as he has been as efficient as possible in his early starts under center. He now faces his toughest defensive test yet when the Saints pass rush comes into town, sending pressure to the pocket at a high rate. To help counter against the Saints defense, look for AJ Dillon to be heavily featured in ground game in goal line situations. As for the Saints, expect a heavier dose of the run to be called inside the 20 as Derek Carr’s red zone struggles continue.

Jordan Love Over 0.5 Interceptions

This is by no means a knock-on what Jordan Love has done so far as Aaron Rodgers replacement for the Green Bay Packers. If it wasn’t for conservative play calling late in the fourth quarter against the Atlanta Falcons then the Packers could realistically be 2-0 to start the season.

Jordan Love has been as good as you could ask for, currently throwing for 396 yards, six touchdowns, and zero interceptions. While the yardage could experience an uptick by being more aggressive, Packers fans can at least appreciate his ability to take care of the ball and keep drives alive by not throwing interceptions.

The issue is that the zero interceptions don’t exactly tell the correct story. Jordan Love has teetered with turnover worthy throws, especially when under pressure. He has a tendency to throw into tight windows, especially when needing to get the ball out in a hurry.

So far no one has been able to capitalize on this. The Saints defense is his toughest test yet, featuring two of the top five defensive linemen in terms of quarterback pressures. Look for Love to be under pressure at a higher rate than normal, giving a higher chance for him to throw an interception than the odds imply.

Derek Carr Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

After struggling mightily in the red zone in his stint with the Las Vegas Raiders, a bounce back towards the mean was expected in his new setting with the Saints. That has yet to be the case so far this season as Derek Carr’s struggles continue when they get within the 20.

At first being labeled as just bad luck, now getting enough concrete evidence that Derek Carr just may be a bad quarterback against a tighter defense inside the 20. With his improved cast of weapons in Chris Olave and Michael Thomas there should be zero reason that he cannot find daylight as they exploit the gaps in coverage.

Still, until he proves otherwise, I cannot back Carr in scoring situations. Better yet, the Packers rush defense struggles have also been a theme going into this year after ranking near dead last in Rush Def DVOA last year.

Knowing that the Packers struggle to plug the gaps in the middle, expect a heavier dose of the run to be called when they are near the goal line. This takes passing attempts away from Carr, giving a higher chance of clearing this under.

AJ Dillon Anytime Touchdown

While Aaron Jones is trending towards playing after suffering an early season injury, this game script calls for a heavier dose of AJ Dillon. The Saints defense line will consistently push the Packers offensive line back, forcing the Packers to counteract with the size and strength of Dillon to crack through the gaps.

AJ Dillon 2+ Touchdowns

Why just stop at one touchdown when AJ Dillon serves as the perfect weapon to crack the Saints defensive line when near the goal line. Aaron Jones is hobbled and undersized when running up the gut and Jordan Love will be under constant pressure.

The Packers best option inside the 10 is to call their big man’s number and have him put his head down and run up the middle against the Saints vaunted defense.

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Kody is a sports betting writer here at Lineups. He specializes in college sports as well as the NFL and NBA. He won’t quit believing in the Lions Super Bowl chances even when they are eliminated.

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