Saints vs. Buccaneers Same Game Parlay Picks and SGP Strategy
It’s hard to believe we’re onto Week 13 of the NFL season, but the regular season has gone by in the blink of an eye. However, we still have a few more weeks of primetime action to wager on before we get into the postseason. This Monday Night Football features divisional rivals fighting for the top spot in the NFC South in the Buccaneers and Saints.
In this article, I’ll build a Same Game Parlay (SGP) for this Monday Night Football game. SGPs give you the opportunity to combine multiple wagers together for the chance at an even bigger payout. Let’s take a look at some options for this Saints vs. Buccaneers game.
NFL Week 13 Monday Night Football Same Game Parlay
To start our SGP, I’m taking the Saints +3.5. The spread has moved down to +3 on FanDuel due to sharp action siding with the road team here, but we can buy the half point for our SGP for safety. 3 is a key number as about 15% of NFL games have been decided by 3 points over the past 25 years. Let’s grab that key number here.
In addition, I’m taking the under 41.5 points for our SGP. That’s my favorite play from this entire game as both of these offenses leave a lot to be desired. Six of the Bucs’ last seven games have failed to go over 40 points and four of the Saints’ past five games have finished under, as well.
The Saints’ defense has had an up and down season, but they are getting healthier. Cameron Jordan is back in the lineup and Marshon Lattimore is expected to make his return this week. New Orleans’ defense is up to 12th against the pass by DVOA and 11th by overall success rate, so they should be able to slow down a Bucs’ offense that has had tons of issues.
Tom Brady’s faith in his offensive line has completely eroded as he’s getting rid of the ball faster and throwing it shorter than he has in his entire Buccaneers tenure. It won’t help that Tristan Wirfs was injured in the last game, as that will only exacerbate those issues. The Saints rank fourth in rate of 20+ yard passes allowed, so big plays won’t be flowing for Brady here.
As a result, I’m adding Brady under 273.5 passing yards to our SGP. He has over 250 passing yards in just one of his five games against the Saints since arriving in Tampa Bay, and the Saints have held six straight quarterbacks under their listed passing yardage prop, so the matchup will be difficult for Brady.
In addition, I’m fading Mike Evans in this spot. Evans continues to be heavily targeted as he ranks 11th among wide receivers in air yards, but Lattimore has caused him all sorts of issues throughout their rivalry. In fact, Evans is averaging just 49.4 receiving yards per game against the Saints throughout his career.
Altogether, we have four wagers that offer strong correlative value and a nice payout when put together in a SGP:
- New Orleans Saints +3.5 (-122)
- Under 41.5 Total Points (-110)
- Tom Brady Under 271.5 Passing Yards (-113)
- Mike Evans Under 60.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Full SGP Odds: +689 ($10 wins $68.93)
