Get San Francisco 49ers Vs. Arizona Cardinals player prop picks & odds for the (11/21/22) matchup
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San Francisco 49ers Vs. Arizona Cardinals Player Prop Picks
Tonight, we’ll get to watch an exciting Monday Night Football game between the San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals. These NFC West rivals are at different points in their respective seasons, but they are both fighting tooth and nail for playoff positioning. In this article, I’ll break down my favorite player prop values from this game.
You can use the 49ers vs. Cardinals player prop search tool above to compare odds from different sportsbooks for this game. As always, odds shopping is critical as you will find very different numbers at different books. Let’s get to work on finding some props in this primetime game.
George Kittle Over 3.5 Receptions (-165 BetMGM)
I don’t typically like playing this much juice on a player prop given all of the different factors that can be in play, but we’re getting some key factors aligning that still make this a value at this number. George Kittle has gone under this number in each of his last two games, but tonight provides an excellent bounce back opportunity.
The Cardinals have been very good at defending wide receivers and awful at defending tight ends this season. Tyler Higbee (8), Noah Fant (5), Irv Smith Jr. (4), and Juwan Johnson (5) are some of the examples of the tight ends to have four or more catches in recent weeks against Arizona.
Kittle has gone over this number in six straight games against Arizona as they’ve continually struggled against tight ends. This year has been the same as they rank 30th in pass defense DVOA against the position, and this is a brilliant opportunity for Kittle to take advantage in a big way. I’m also putting a half unit on his touchdown prop.
Deebo Samuel Under 4.5 Receptions (+105 BetMGM)
In line with our George Kittle prop, I’m considering taking the under on Deebo Samuel’s receptions tonight. With the addition of Christian McCaffrey and continued strong play of Brandon Aiyuk, there’s simply fewer targets to go around, and Samuel is coming off a two-catch game against the Chargers last week.
To make matters worse, the Cardinals rank first in pass defense DVOA against WR1s this season. However, that ranking is due to elite play from cornerback Byron Murphy, and he’s out tonight. That absence alone will make this an unofficial play for me, but I don’t mind it if you want to take this prop.
Samuel has gone over this receptions number in two of four career games against the Cardinals, but he’s averaging 5 receptions per game in that span thanks to an eight-reception performance in 2019. However, given the low total in this game and outside factors, I’d be surprised if he comes close to replicating that effort.
James Conner Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-120 DraftKings)
This isn’t a great matchup for James Conner tonight as the 49ers rank third in run defense DVOA, second in tackling, third in success rate allowed, and first in yards per carry allowed. However, taking this prop would be a bet on volume, and it was certainly there for James Conner in his first game back in the lineup last week.
Despite facing an elite Rams run defense, Conner finished with 69 rushing yards as he saw a whopping 21 carries. Whether it’s a hobbled Kyler Murray or Colt McCoy tonight, I’d expect similar volume as the Cardinals won’t want to put too much on the plate of their quarterback given the difficult matchup.
Conner has hit the over on this prop in one of three career games against the 49ers, and he had 96 yards against them in their last matchup in November 2021. However, he finished with 43 and 29 rushing yards in those other two games, so there’s certainly a mixed bag there. A bet on him over 14.5 rushing attempts is worth exploring tonight.