San Francisco 49ers vs. Carolina Panthers NFL Player Props & Picks (10/9/22)

Get NFL player prop picks & odds for the San Francisco 49ers Vs. Carolina Panthers matchup on (10/9/22).

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San Francisco 49ers vs. Carolina Panthers Player Prop Picks

In one of the seemingly more lopsided games of Week 5, the San Francisco 49ers travel to take on the Carolina Panthers. The Niners are one of my favorite teaser pieces of the week, but in this article, I’ll discuss some of my favorite player prop values from the game. Don’t forget to check out our matchup preview for this game and our main page for player props for more sides to take. You can use the player prop search tool above to find the best values on props in this game.

Baker Mayfield Under 0.5 Passing Touchdowns (+160 DraftKings)

Transparency is important, and I’ll be fully honest – I expected a lot more from Baker Mayfield in Carolina this season. However, he’s the second-worst quarterback in the NFL per PFF’s grading and the worst by EPA+CPOE composite score. Mayfield is completing just 50.7% of his passes and has six turnover-worthy plays to just one big-time throw. Whether you want to blame Matt Rhule or Mayfield, it’s not working.

This week, Mayfield faces arguably the best defense in the NFL. The 49ers lead the NFL in defensive DVOA, EPA, early down success rate, points per play, yards per play, and overall PFF grades. DeMeco Ryans is staking a legitimate claim to being the best defensive coordinator in the NFL, and there’s nothing fluky about this team’s defensive success with star talent at all three levels.

Baker Mayfield has thrown for exactly one touchdown in every game this season, but he’ll struggle to get that done this week. I have a hard time seeing the Panthers finding sustained drives in this game, let alone having success in the red zone. I’m surprised you’re getting this much juice on this prop, and I plan to take full advantage.

Jimmy Garoppolo Under 18.5 Passing Completions (-110 DraftKings)

In two starts so far this season, Jimmy Garoppolo has averaged just 17 passing completions per game. Those two games were close contests against higher-level teams in the Broncos and Rams, and the same cannot be said for the Panthers. I don’t expect the game script to be the same as I believe the 49ers could be up by multiple scores by halftime as 7.5-point favorites.

Garoppolo hasn’t gone over this number in any of his last six games dating back to last season, and he only went over in seven of 18 games in 2021 (38.8%). The Niners should be able to ride their stout defense and run game to a win this week, and I don’t anticipate a heavy passing effort this week. I like playing the attempts or completions prop rather than yardage for Garoppolo due to the elite YAC abilities of his receivers.

Jeff Wilson Jr. Over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-110 DraftKings)

Speaking of that elite rushing offense, Jeff Wilson Jr. has been a major beneficiary. After Elijah Mitchell got hurt in Week 1, Wilson has become the team’s starting running back, and he’s averaging 77.3 rushing yards over the last three games. Wilson has 57 rushing attempts this season, and no other running back has more than 14, so this is clearly his full-time backfield right now.

This week, Wilson faces a Carolina run defense that ranks tenth in DVOA and 12th in yards per carry allowed. However, they allowed 141 yards to Nick Chubb in Week 1, and the Niners have a similarly dangerous rushing offense with Kyle Shanahan’s schematic brilliance. While Trent Williams is out this week, the 49ers’ offensive line is more than capable of helping Wilson hit the over on this prop.