San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers (1/19/20): NFL Betting Picks, Lines

Last Week: 3-8
All Time Results: 113-107-2, +15.7 Units

San Francisco 49ers -7 (-120) vs. Green Bay Packers – .48 Units

The Packers defense has made incredible strides this year, but they still have a clear weakness.  You can run on them.

The Packers are 31st in Football Outsiders Defensive Adjusted Line Yards, which is a metric that measures how successful an offensive line is in the run game against a defensive line.  In other words, out all 32 teams in the NFL, offensive lines have the 2nd most success running the ball against these Packers.

san francisco 49ersThe 49ers will gladly take advantage.  San Francisco HC, Kyle Shanahan set a team goal of 30 team rushes against the Vikings.  Thanks to incredible defensive display and yeoman’s like work in the run game, the 49ers got a total of 47 rushing attempts, second-most of any team in the NFL this season.

The 49ers varied and a sophisticated rushing attack will have a field day against this Packers D-Line.  For one thing, Kyle Shanahan coached under Packers DC Mike Pettine and understands how to exploit his defenses.  Via NinersNation.com: “In two games against Pettine, Shanahan is averaging 33.5 points per game, 143 yards rushing in these games with an average of 5.5 yards on the ground.”

The Packers’ best defensive weapons are its edge rushers, who will run right past the 49ers offensive plays over and over again, frustrating them and taking them out of their preferred mindset.

On the other side of the ball, the 49ers have the 2nd best pass rush according to Football Outsiders.  With edge-rusher Dee Ford back on the field and looking like his old self, the 49ers Defensive Line has no weaknesses.  I expect the 49ers pass rush to get home in this game, especially late.

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San Francisco 49ers -16.5 (+250) vs. Green Bay Packers – .1 Units

The Packers’ three losses this season have all come by 7 points or more.  Two of those games happened in the state of California, where the Packers fell to the Chargers and these 49ers by a total of 44 points combined.   In both of those games, the Packers offense suffered greatly once they became one dimensional.  Aaron Rodgers was constantly on the run as teams knew Rodgers would need to take long dropbacks to set up long passing plays.  Rodgers got sacked 8 times over those two games, including three times by one of the Bosa brothers.

Green Bay Packers WR, Davante Adams Over 84.5 Receiving Yards – .25 Units

Davante Adams had a mediocre middle of the year.  He missed four games with injury and recorded less than 150 total yards in his first three games back in action.   Pro bettor, Steve Fezzik cashed in on this play last week against the Seahawks.  I think it’s still a good play this week, as I don’t think the markets will adjust enough to just how pivotal Adams has become in the Packers offense.

Over the last quarter of the season, Adams has been as good a wideout as any in the league.   Over his last 3 games Adams over 300 yards, including a masterful performance in the Divisional Round last week, scoring twice and ceiling the game with a late contested-catch allowing the Packers to run out the clock.

In a game where I expect the Packers to be trailing significantly in the second half, I love Adams to get plenty of opportunities.  Rodgers spoke after the game that he hasn’t had such a great understanding with a receiver since his glory days with Jordy Nelson a decade ago.  Rodgers hasn’t developed that same understanding with his other receivers, which we saw in the Box Score last Sunday.  Against Seattle, no other receiver outside of Adams had more than 1 catch.

Richard Sherman will be the first to tell you: the 49ers have one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL.  But much like his former team – the Seattle Seahawks – the 49ers do not move Sherman around to go after match-ups.  Adams will simply lineup on the other side of the field to get his best opportunities.

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Born in Chicago, born for Las Vegas, Mackenzie is a graduate of Yale University with a BA in English & Creative Writting. Mackenzie runs AlternativeStats.blog, which seeks to by-pass the minutiae of commonly cited sports statistics and expose the heart of what drives athletic success. After several successful years investing in Las Vegas real estate, Mackenzie is excited to transition in 2019 into betting on sports full time, as well as documenting his thought process as he further learns the craft.

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