San Francisco 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings (1/12/19): NFL Betting Picks, Lines

Last Week: 2-5
All Time Results: 110-99-2, +17.1 Units

San Francisco 49ers -7 vs. Minnesota Vikings -.1 Unit

It’s Always 1 PM Somewhere

Vikings QB, Kirk Cousins is 12-24-1 ATS (33%) for his career when playing in games with start times other than 1 PM Eastern, including 0-1 in the post-season.   That’s where all the flack he gets for failing to perform in Prime Time comes from.  Because usually he doesn’t – at least not to this point of his carer.

Of course, the flip side of that is when the game does start at 1 PM Eastern, Cousins wins 65% ATS, as good as anybody ever.

This game kicks off at 4:35 ET.  So bet the house on the 49ers, right?

san francisco 49ersNot so fast.  I’ve been keyed in on this remarkable trends the entire year, yet there is an element I never considered until this week.  Does it matter what time it is locally? If his acumen in 1 PM games comes from his strickly regimented routine as we have hypothesized, then wouldn’t the local time be the most important factor?

Turns out Cousins is 38-21 ATS (64%) when the Kick-Off occurs before 2 PM local time.  That’s about the same Win Rate as when he has at games that Kick-Off at 1 PM Eastern.   Captain Kirk is 4-3 in games that kick off before 2 PM locally but don’t start exactly at 1 PM Eastern.  That record includes 3-3 on the West Coast and 1-0 in London.

Based on that, I would tend to think that the major distinction then is not the exact time of the kickoff but rather the relative time of day.  If he has to sit on his hands all day and wait around for the game, he generally performs worse.  He’s at his best when the game is earlier and he can just get up and go.

Although this game is on a Saturday, possibly messing with Cousins’ general routine, I still expect him to be closer to the Good Cousins than the Bad Cousins.  Preventing me from making too large of wager on this game.

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San Francisco 49ers -9.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings (+128) – .1 Unit

Minnesota Vikings Team Total Under 17.5 – .1 Unit

49ers Defense Getting Key Players Back

The reason I do like for the 49ers to win and cover is the status of their injury report.  The 49ers have not been this healthy since Week 2.

DE Dee Ford set to return to 49ers, per Ian Rappoport.  His addition could be huge.   With Ford in the game, defenses can’t always shade protection toward Nick Bosa because Ford presents too much of a threat on the other side of the line. More importantly, Ford’s return allows Arik Armsted to play Defensive Tackle, his best position.  According to PFF, Armsted is the highest rated player on the 49ers defense.  Getting him back to his best position can only be good news. The 49ers are going from a D-Line with one obvious weakness (Soloman Thomas & Sheldon Day, replacement level players according to PFF) to one without a weakness. B+ to A- players across the board.

The 49ersallowed 11 points per game in Weeks 1-7 with Ford and Alexander healthy.  They have allowed 26 points per game since after Alexander (and later Ford) got hurt.  I might be overly optimistic about these players making an immediate impact, but I’m expecting to see a much improved from a performance that was historically dominant for the first two months of the season.

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Born in Chicago, born for Las Vegas, Mackenzie is a graduate of Yale University with a BA in English & Creative Writting. Mackenzie runs AlternativeStats.blog, which seeks to by-pass the minutiae of commonly cited sports statistics and expose the heart of what drives athletic success. After several successful years investing in Las Vegas real estate, Mackenzie is excited to transition in 2019 into betting on sports full time, as well as documenting his thought process as he further learns the craft.

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