San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks (11/11/2019): NFL Betting Picks, Lines

This Week: 5-4
All Time Results: 69-59-1, +10.83

San Francisco 49ers -6 vs. Seattle Seahawks – .5 Units

San Francisco 49ers -8 (+135) vs. Seattle Seahawks-.1 Units

George Kittle being listed as doubtful barely moved the line – but it made me cut my unit size in half.  Make no mistake, the 49ers firepower needs their best catcher & blocker to sniff its ceiling.

That said, I still the 49ers have a good matchup here.

san francisco 49ersThe Seahawks may the most QB dependent franchise running – and the 49ers have eaten QBs alive all season. Kyler Murray had a “breakout” performance against the 49ers…posting a 34.9 QBR last Thursday Night. That figure more than tripled the San Francisco average QBR allowed up to that point.  Still, for the season, the average QBR allowed for the 49ers is a stunning 12.

Russell Wilson would need to double that figure in my opinion – post a 70 QBR – for the Seahawks to even have a chance in this one.  True, Wilson will be by far the best QB they’ve faced.  He is capable of pitching a perfect game. I just don’t think it’s likely.

The 49ers get pressure without blitzing thanks to a world-class defensive line.  With linebackers back in coverage, there will be ton of pressure of Tyler Lockett and DJ Metcalf to win on the outside.  I think Lockett and Metcalf are good – I don’t think they’re elite.  The 49ers steller pass defense wins this matchup.

On the other side of the ball, the Seahawks are not the Seahawks anymore.  The Legend of Boom has become the Legend of Who? More importantly for this contest, Seattle is a bottom 10 rush defense.  Even with Kittle out, if Seattle can’t stop the run and keep the 49ers off schedule, I think Kyle Shanahan will burn them over the top.  If Shanahan is able to get run enough plays, eventually he will dial something up once the defense has shown its hand.

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San Francisco 49ers To Win Super Bowl +550 – 1 Unit

George Kittle’s nagging ankle and knees issues concern me for this game.  But the adeptness at which San Francisco has dealt with injuries makes me consider if they don’t have the highest upside in the NFL.   Since their 49ers best lineman, Joe Staley went out in Week 2, the 49ers have averaged 169 yards per game running.  If Staley’s return is even a marginal improvement – or even if it helps them sustain their current level of run production – the 49ers to me can compete with anybody.

Jimmy Garappolo is quietly having a fine season.  Even before last Thursday’s 4 touchdowns 300-yard explosion, the Eastern Illinois Alumn ranked 8th among all QBs in QBR.  Now he’s 6th and I would argue that that figure represents accurately his stance in the league.  Even though he is the 10th to 15th QB the casual fan – or even many experts would rank – Garrapolo has done nothing but win his entire career.  Jimmy G is now 16-2 for his career as a starter.  Short sample size but still – the best all-time is the best all-time.

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Born in Chicago, born for Las Vegas, Mackenzie is a graduate of Yale University with a BA in English & Creative Writting. Mackenzie runs AlternativeStats.blog, which seeks to by-pass the minutiae of commonly cited sports statistics and expose the heart of what drives athletic success. After several successful years investing in Las Vegas real estate, Mackenzie is excited to transition in 2019 into betting on sports full time, as well as documenting his thought process as he further learns the craft.

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