Seattle Seahawks vs. Dallas Cowboys NFL First Touchdown: Expert Picks & Predictions (11/29/23)
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The Seattle Seahawks face the Dallas Cowboys in Thursday Night Football (11/29/23). Get Seahawks vs. Cowboys First Touchdown best bets, as well as a player prop search tool to optimize odds shopping for Thursday night’s game.
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Seattle Seahawks vs. Dallas Cowboys First Touchdown Picks
The goal of the First Touchdown prop is to identify which player will score the first touchdown of the game. Who will score the first touchdown in the Seahawks vs. Cowboys game?
Tony Pollard First Touchdown (+500 FD) & Rico Dowdle First Touchdown (+1400 BMGM)
The Cowboys are favored to score the first touchdown based on overall strength and season long data.
Seattle has allowed the fifth most rushing touchdowns per game, the third most rushing touchdowns per game to running backs, and they are 30th in run defense success rate since Uchenna Nwosu’s injury. Therefore, Dallas can easily exploit them on the ground, thus indicating monster games for both Tony Pollard and Rico Dowdle.
Pollard owns the second most red zone carries across the NFL, including the fourth most carries inside the five-yard-line. He hasn’t been productive with those touches, but that immense volume cannot be ignored. The veteran has recorded a rushing touchdown in two straight games now, so hopefully the positive regression will continue.
Meanwhile, Dowdle’s role as a change-of-pace back is steadily growing. He possesses two touchdowns over the last three games, and Dallas isn’t afraid to utilize him in the flat near the goal line. Overall, backing Dallas’ backs to score the first touchdown is the best bet here.
Pollard needs to score first roughly 16.7 percent of the time for the bet to profitable in the long run, while Dowdle sits at 6.7 percent.
DK Metcalf First Seahawks Touchdown (+500 FD)
Dallas has been in the middle of the pack for opponent rushing and passing touchdowns per game across the NFL, although they have given up nearly twice as many passing touchdowns as rushing. Subsequently targeting Seattle’s passing offense is the way to go.
DK Metcalf only owns three touchdowns, but he easily paces Seattle in red zone targets. Metcalf is a freak athlete and one of the best contested catch receivers, so it’s unlikely that he continues to struggle to find the end zone, especially given his volume.
Kenneth Walker III’s injury also provides a boost to Metcalf’s chances because Walker clearly held the most first touchdown equity based on the data. Zach Charbonnet is still unproven, and he doesn’t have the same home run potential of Walker, which bodes well for Metcalf.
Metcalf needs to score Seattle’s first touchdown about 16.7 percent of the time.
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