Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions NFL Player Props & Picks (10/2/22)
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Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions Player Prop Picks
The Seahawks and Lions are both coming off disappointing losses, and it was a costly one for Detroit – Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift are both set to miss this Sunday’s game. Where can we find some value on player prop bets with those two out of the picture?
Tyler Lockett Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+210)
Tyler Lockett has been targeted heavily this season, racking up 18 catches on 22 targets in his last two games. He just hasn’t found the end zone yet, unlike D.K. Metcalf and Will Dissly. That has a chance to change against the Lions.
Lockett is averaging 9 touchdowns per season since 2018 and has proven he has a nice connection with Geno Smith. All Seahawks offensive touchdowns this season have come through the air, which is an effective way to beat the Lions.
Detroit’s Jeff Okudah has done a nice job this season limiting receivers like Justin Jefferson, but he can only cover one Seahawks receiver at a time. Losing Tracy Walker in the secondary doesn’t help matters. With the Seahawks set to pass the ball often in the red zone on Sunday, +210 is worth the risk for a Lockett touchdown.
Geno Smith Over 33.5 Pass Attempts (-108)
Geno Smith opened the season with 28 and 30 passing attempts in his first two games, but he ended up at 44 against the Falcons last week. Trailing Atlanta most of the game was a big factor, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Seahawks attack this game the same way in a dome. Kirk Cousins just threw 41 passes against the Lions, a week after Carson Wentz threw 46. Jalen Hurts threw 32 in Week 1 in what isn’t always a pass-first offense.
The Lions’ secondary has enough holes outside of Okudah that the Seahawks would be wise to let Smith throw often and hope Lockett and Metcalf take care of the rest. If the undermanned Lions can open up an early lead and force more passes, even better.
Jamaal Williams Over 16.5 Rushing Attempts (-110)
Jamaal Williams is the lead back in Detroit with D’Andre Swift set to miss this game. Williams was a favorite of Dan Campbell already – he had 11 carries in Week 1 and Week 2 before taking on 20 carries in Week 3. Swift isn’t leaving behind a huge number of carries – he had 12 rushing attempts over the last two games – but it’s enough that Williams can be trusted to end up in the 18-20 carry range.
The Lions’ offense may not be as pass heavy with Amon-Ra St. Brown out. Williams has earned the trust of the Lions’ staff as the veteran of their group of offensive weapons, and he should receive a sizable workload against the Seahawks.
Josh Reynolds Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Josh Reynolds is another veteran who has earned the trust of the Lions. Most importantly, he’s earned the trust of Jared Goff, who was once his quarterback with the Rams. Reynolds has been a safety blanket for Goff this season, racking up 96 yards on 6 catches (10 targets) in the loss to the Vikings last week.
He had only six targets between the first two weeks of the season, but coming off a breakout game with St. Brown leaving a huge void, I fully expect Reynolds to be a big part of what the Lions do on Sunday.