Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams (10/3/19): NFL Betting Picks, Lines

Last Week’s Results: 6-7
All Time Results: 32-23, +7.03 Units

Seattle Seahawks -121 vs. Los Angeles Rams – 1 Unit
Seattle Seahawks -9 (+250) vs. Los Angeles Rams – .1 Units

Did the Seattle 12th man die?  Answer that question and you will know which way to play tonight’s football game.

The Seattle home crowd has significantly underwhelmed in recent weeks and seasons.  The Seahawks have lost their last three home games against the spread and 11 of their  last 19.  Worse, these Rams have gone up to Seattle and beaten their rivals in each of Sean McVay’s first two seasons.  In Week 3, the Seahawks lost for the first time ever at home in September under Head Coach, Pete Carroll.

Historically, however, the Seahawks have been absurdly successful in primetime – 26-5 under Carroll – and especially unbeatable at home under the bright lights – 17-2.  The Seahawks are 8-1 on Thursday Night Football, including going 3-0 SU & ATS at home on TNF.

seattle seahawksIf the 12th man died in a tragic foam finger explosion – if the allure of the Wilson Seahawks has dulled significantly since the Super Bowl years – and the Seahawks have an average Home Field Advantage at this point, then this line is about right.  The Rams have had their struggles but still, appear to be a couple of points better than this young and unproven Seahawks roster.

However – if the 12th man lives, we have a great bet on the home team here.  If ever there was a moment for the Seattle crowd to rock, it would be in this game with double revenge and the NFC West lead at stake.  The Rams have been the much-ballyhooed team the last two years and there is nothing sweeter as an opposing fan than knocking the overhyped rival back to reality.  (LeBron has -143 +/- for his career in the Finals! says the Steph Curry stan.)

I think the 12th man lives and thus I’m betting Seattle.  In addition to home-field advantage, having the better quarterback is tremendously valuable on a short week.  With less time to prepare, game plans will be simpler and the quarterback better equipped to adapt on the fly will have a major advantage.  There is a reason they call it “Russell Wilsoning”.

Jarred Goff continues to have terrible home/road splits.  His poor road play may be more exposed this year as well because the Rams no longer have an elite running game on which to rely.

Gurley has totaled less rushing yards in each successive game this season.  TG3 had the type of season opener you would expect from the highest-paid running back in the history of football, gaining 97 yards on the ground.  The next week he had a mediocre 63.  Then 43.  Finally, last week, Gurley only had 16 rushing yards on 5 attempts.  His average yards per carry has gone from an excellent 7 yards in Week 1, to league average in week 2, then finally to replacement level in Weeks 3 and 4, when he averaged just over 3 yards per rush.

If this game, becomes a shootout as the total suggests, I love the chances that Goff makes more mistakes than Wilson by the end of the night. Russell Wilson is 17-7-1 ATS for his career in Primetime games.

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Will Dissly Under 50.5 Receiving Yards (-112) – .25 Units

Second-year Seahawks Tight End, Will Dissley has had back to back excellent games.  This has done two things: 1.) alerted every savvy Fantasy waiver-wire-watcher in the nation and 2.) inflated his totals for this game.

The Seahawks average 61.3 receiving yards for Tight Ends on the season.  While they have replaced their backup tight end, their new back up tight-end, Logan Paulsen has a history with the Seahawks and knows their offense well.  I don’t expect his role to be any less than former backup Nick Vannett.  Overall Dissley has gained 74% of the teams receiving yards for the position or 45 yards per game on average.  If that is his true expected average, we’re in great shape.  However, that number might even be high.

The Rams have allowed only 36.5 receiving yards and 6.5 targets per game to TEs on the year.  Granted, these numbers might be artificially low considering some of their opponents’ deficiencies at the position.  Even if these figures are in the ballpark of their true expected average, we are, again, looking good.

Finally, Dissly’s catch rate may be unsustainable.  Dissly currently boasts an 86% catch rate on the season, which would be among the league leaders in 2018.  Last year as a rookie Dissley brought down only 57% of balls thrown his way.

If his catch rate regresses to his career average OR the Rams continue to stymie opposing Tight-Ends OR the Seahawks continue their normal rate of distribution – we have a good bet on Dissley Under 50.5 yards. If any combination of the above occurs, we now have a great bet.

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Born in Chicago, born for Las Vegas, Mackenzie is a graduate of Yale University with a BA in English & Creative Writting. Mackenzie runs AlternativeStats.blog, which seeks to by-pass the minutiae of commonly cited sports statistics and expose the heart of what drives athletic success. After several successful years investing in Las Vegas real estate, Mackenzie is excited to transition in 2019 into betting on sports full time, as well as documenting his thought process as he further learns the craft.

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