Seattle Seahawks vs. New Orleans Saints NFL Player Props & Picks (10/9/22)

Get NFL player prop picks & odds for the Seattle Seahawks vs. New Orleans Saints matchup on (10/9/22).

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Seahawks Vs. Saints Player Prop Picks

It’s been a tough start to the season for both teams, but perhaps not in quite the same way. The Seahawks were projected by most to be one of the worst teams, if not the very worst team in the entire NFL this season, and they’ve looked the part at times, but still they sit at .500 after the first quarter (just about) of the season. Meanwhile, the Saints were supposed to contend for a playoff spot in the extremely weak NFC, but they’re 1-3 thus far, and could extremely realistically be 0-4 if not for a furious comeback and classic Falcons choke job. Let’s look at some player props as we think about who could excel as both of these teams try and set their seasons on a better trajectory.

Geno Smith o241.5 Passing Yards

He’s pretty much everyone’s favorite story of this young season- when everyone in and around the league wrote him off, he never wrote back, and he’s off to an awesome start to the year as he takes on the tall task of replacing Russell Wilson in Seattle. In addition to his iconic opening day victory over Russ and the Broncos, Smith was on fire this past weekend in launching the Hawks to a 48-45 shootout win over the Lions. He has set a league record for completion percentage through four starts in a season, with a staggering total of 77.3%. More importantly for this prop, his volume is on the rise- after being below 200 yards in his first two games of the year, Geno has thrown for over 320 in the past two.

The Saints coverage unit has been solid, but their pass rush has been bottom-5 in the NFL according to PFF. It’s true that they haven’t been allowing many passing yards this year- just over 200 per game- but that can be explained in part by game script and opponent. The Saints haven’t won since an opening day comeback win over the Falcons, and even in that game, they trailed most of the way; their opponents have been able to ground and pound for much of the game. New Orleans has squared off against Marcus Mariota and the Falcons, Tom Brady and the Bucs, who were relatively injured and always struggle immensely against the Saints for whatever reason, and then Baker Mayfield and Kirk Cousins, two of the league’s least productive passers so far. It’s reasonable to believe that a QB with a hotter hand will throw for more yards, and that’s exactly what I’m picking Geno to do this Sunday.

Chris Olave o63.5 Receiving Yards

This one’s pretty simple from a couple of directions- Olave is productive, and the Seahawks pass defense is brutal. Tariq Woolen is the only player on the whole defense with an interception, and four of the seven Seattle players with the most snaps in coverage are allowing a passer rating of over 130 when targeted. PFF sees this coverage unit as the third worst in football, and the pass rush, which checks in somewhere amongst the bottom ten by basically any metric, isn’t really any better as they’ve hardly averaged over a sack and 7 hurries per game.

On the other hand, Olave is having a very nice start to his NFL tenure. He’s cracked this set yardage total every week except in Atlanta during his NFL debut. He’s also ripped off some big gains- in each of his past three games, he’s racked up at least 32 yards on his longest catch of the day. Any one such play would get him halfway to sealing the over on his total for the day. Against a Seahawks secondary that really shouldn’t have any answers for him, I can’t imagine that Olave will have a problem getting well into the 60s and beyond for his receiving yardage total.